The Numbers Game

Wednesday, October 11, at 1 p.m., U.S. Eastern time

Don Munce is president of the National Research Center for College and University Admissions, a position he has held for 18 years. His previous work includes 10 years as director of admissions and financial aid at a private college in the Midwest.

A transcript of the chat follows.

Elizabeth F. Farrell (Moderator):
    Hello Everyone, my name is Elizabeth Farrell and I am the reporter who wrote about the increased use of data analysis in admissions. Thank you for joining our chat with Don Munce, the president of NRCCUA, a company that provides a lot of data for colleges to analyze. We're very interested in hearing from all of you.

Question from T.R., admissions officer at selective private school:
    Isn't tracking student interest - "expressed interest" as it's called in admissions jargon - inherently biased against low SES applicants? Here's my reasoning: Students who cannot afford to travel to the university to indicate interest (e.g. cost of travel, cost of a parent leaving work, what have you) don't have an equitable method for displaying such interest. Isn't submitting an application indication enough of a student's desire to attend that specific college? When/where will the line finally be drawn!?

Don Munce:
    I agree with your concern. I think that admissions decisions must include "common sense" calculations. In other words, if there are target audiences that are desired to assist the institutions meet overall enrollment goals, the statistical formulas used in decisions must accomodate for how students from those populations actually conduct their college search and application processes.

Question from Michael Pyshnov, no affiliation.:
    Is it possible to force a public college to make public also the results (i.e. the names of persons who would be admitted) in a hypothetical case when only academic records were taken into formulas? Doesn't the public have a right to know what would be the results in this case?

Don Munce:
    My opinion is that the public's right to know applies to the formulas and procedures used to make decisions but not to individual student records and decisions related to them. I have very limited experience with these legal issues however and suggest this question might be better addressed by an education lawyer.

Question from Elizabeth F. Farrell:
    Hi Don- Could you explain, so our readers know, what an "SES applicant" is? And could you also give us a sense of how often the data colleges use account for the financial obstacles some students face in showing demonstrated interest? Are most colleges aware of how a family's income might influence these factors, in your estimation?

Don Munce:
    low SES referrs to students of low "Socio-Economic Status". The quesion referred to the fact that students in these categories often have more barriers to the enrollment process than others. For instance, they might not have parental support to assist with timely college visits that are a common way students find out about colleges and admissions offices learn about students. When colleges use a set of standard data elements to predict the strength of a particular student's prospect profile, their model may naturally create a low score for a student from a low SES situation because the student doesn't have the means to jump through some of the colleges tradtional "hoops". I do think most admissions professionals are aware of the behavior differences associated with students of low SES, however, I think they often forget to allow for these differences when building prospect models.

Question from CW, large private institution:
    I see this as rather a chicken-and-egg question. Years of data tell us the students who are most likely to enroll, so spending institutional dollars on those students is a better business decision than sending thousands of dollars' worth of material to students who are not likely to enroll with any consistency. Of course, applications must continue to be read carefully to find good candidates from all areas, but it's hard to justify my budget if I can't show a return.

Don Munce:
    I agree completely. Enrollment managers are not the change agents who can build a new model for funding higher education and essentially throw out the need to get a return on investment. However, looking at first generation students as an example, as a unique group for analytical purposes can help an institution find and admit students from that group that are the most likely to enroll and graduate.

Question from Naomi Steinberg, independent college counselor:
    How do you suggest we inform/counsel students and their families who are trying to understand how this practice might impact them?

Don Munce:
    Institutions are receiving data on students that indicate to the institution how interested a student might be in that school. The most powerfull data is data submitted directly from the student. It will override any statistical modeling that a school is using.

Question from Michael Pyshnov, no affiliation.:
    How then public will know the impact of the formula? And how it will be able to judge if it wants this formula in public education?

Don Munce:
    By a review of the results of the formula in the enrollment statistics that all institutions report semester by semester. I'm not sure if I am following your question.

Question from Renee Norden, small independent private school:
    So, if you were advising students, what should they do to maximize their "number" in the database? According to the article, the numbers all seemed to be positive. Can negative numbers also be given? For example, a student on tour expresses dislike for an aspect of the school. Can the tour guide penalize the student for the comment?

Don Munce:
    The positives from doing a tour will always outweigh any negatives associated with a student's honest assesment of an institutional feature.

Question from Donna, Dean at Private College:
    We use statistical modeling but purely for a budget reason as we don't have the ability to mail to thousands of inquiries and must control costs based on predictive modeling. However, admission procedures are adhered to regardless. We truly would not "survive" without someway of managing large inquiry pools.

Don Munce:
    I think the power of computing has allowed us to do more in a shorter time than we could in the old days. 30 years ago, I spent hours on my calculator looking at the results I received from various outreach programs at my institutions. I had to make purchasing decisions with the results of this tedious work. Now, we can look at many more factors and get more certain results. But those results are necessary because of the tremendous costs and risks associated with outreach programs.

Question from Elizabeth F. Farrell:
    To further elaborate on Ms. Steinberg's question, and your answer: Should a student who cannot travel to a college make sure they make calls or send e-mails to an admissions office conveying their interest? Would that help them and perhaps override their inability to visit the campus?

Don Munce:
    Absolutely, and the institution can also lower the importance of the campus visit in populations they know have trouble completing the visits.

Question from Sara Lipka, The Chronicle of Higher Education:
    Do you see more recruiting materials going online and affecting the way budgets for glossy print materials -- in some cases sent to only top prospective applicants -- are determined? Could that make the identification of the top students less of an issue?

Don Munce:
    Great question. Difficult to answer in the time we have, but here is the issue. Electronic media is essentially consumer driven communication. Colleges have found there is a significant need to "push" information to students through print media to get the attention their marketing efforts require. We have been witnessing an increase in both print and electronic media programs to reach students.

Question from LJC, mid-size public colege:
    Who do you think are the change agents for a new model of higher ed funding? And what are the laws of economics that apply in this arena. Currently, the "supply" of students is way up, so why have we gotten to the point where colleges and universities are spending more than ever to recruit these plentiful students?

Don Munce:
    I think the public discourse is the agent for any significant change in higher ed funding. Ultimately, if it is the will of the people, more resources can be devoted to the cause. If not, higher ed will continue to require tuition and contributions for its primary funding source which means, it is in the business of serving customers. I believe that when the supply of students is up as it is now, institutions use the opportunity to change the enrolled profile of it's students. In other words, these are the times when the enrollment managers have a chance to respond positively to the pressure from faculty for "better students".

Question from Sara Lipka, The Chronicle of Higher Education:
    To what extent is the focus on yield, on admitting applicants likely to accept the offer, rankings-driven?

Don Munce:
    This topic was at hot one at NACAC in Pittsburgh last week. I think the rankings do affect the policies and practices of some institutions and this causes a great deal of internal debate among enrollment officers. However, the issues vary in importance greatly depending on the institution and it's controllers.

Question from Chris Cory, Pace University:
    The article discusses how difficult it is to stop the escalation of data mining, citing Pomona as an example of one pocket of resistance. I'd hate to reduce your business, but do you see any more reasonable checks and balances emerging?

Don Munce:
    I think the business decision for enrollment officers is "How important is it for me to target my efforts and what are the most cost and time effective ways for me to reach that goal?" The answer to that question will vary based on the institutions priorities and the products and services available to help them. I am really an "old school" admissions guy and believe that many improvements could be realized by many offices by using the Pomona approach and applying "common sense" calculations to the work they do.

Elizabeth F. Farrell (Moderator):
    On that note, it's time to wrap up our chat here. Thank you, Don, for leading this discussion on a topic that is of growing importance to both admissions deans and college-bound students. And thanks to all of our participants for their questions and insights.