From the issue dated November 8, 2002
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Iraq's 'Demonstration Effect'In looking at Iraq and at the Middle East five years after any conflict with
The actual conflict will go well -- even the ranks of ex-generals in the pundit class hostile to war on Iraq agree that it will not take more than four weeks to rout Saddam. Several important "ifs" must follow that rout: If we avoid replacing Saddam Hussein with a strongman much like him; if we, in concert with the international community, throw the full weight of American political, diplomatic, and military might behind a democratic transitional committee to introduce and then build a full representative government for all the people of Iraq; and if the vast resources of the Iraqi state are returned to the control of the Iraqi people and the free market, giving all Iraqis a vested interest in the prosperity and stability of their state, then five years is a reasonable period in which to hope for a full transition to working democracy, or some semblance thereof. Such a transition will shake certain established realities in the Arab world: There is no democratic Arab state; there is no Shiite-ruled Arab state (remember, Iraq is 65 percent Shiite); there is no Arab petro-power that has ceded control of oil to the private market. The demonstration effect from the Iraqi transition will be enormous. Iranians and Arabs throughout the Middle East cannot change their governments, and they have few civil, political, or basic human rights. They cannot complain about the economy, schools, political leaders, religious leaders, or anything else that makes up normal social and political discourse. (That, after all, is why they spend so much time fretting about the United States and Israel.) But imagine that these people look to Iraq and see the Iraqi people enjoying the fruits of freedom. From Iraq to Syria and throughout the region, the question will be asked: "Why not me?" The dictators who rule the region today will be given time to adapt, to ease restrictions and loosen the iron grip of the state. Already in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, tentative steps are being taken in that direction. And for those who do not, there will be a lesson from Baghdad. Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign- and defense-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute http://chronicle.com Section: The Chronicle Review Volume 49, Issue 11, Page B11
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Copyright © 2002 by The Chronicle of Higher Education