From the issue dated November 8, 2002
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Anti-Americanism and TerrorismFive years after overthrowing Saddam Hussein, would the United States face
Of course, in the five-year intervening period, new issues and events would arise, making the Iraq war less important in determining regional attitudes toward the United States. In addition, the current volume of anti-American propaganda could hardly be raised higher. Also, the length of such a war, the number of casualties, and the kind of Iraq that emerged would play a role in determining attitudes. Aside from those points, there are several reasons for rejecting a simplistic, conventional-wisdom argument that an American invasion of Iraq would make the United States even more unpopular. First, Middle Eastern rulers believe in power politics. When America seems strong, they avoid confrontation and even try to make it their friend and protector. When America seems weak, moderates distance themselves and radicals become more aggressive. After the United States has shown itself willing and able to overthrow one of the Arab world's strongest and most ruthless dictators, other regimes are not going to want to confront such a powerful country. It is this practical form of anti-Americanism -- including a willingness to sponsor anti-American terrorism -- that has always been the greatest threat to American interests and citizens, rather than purely verbal complaints about the United States. Second, while the origin of popular anti-Americanism is a complex issue, a large part of it is due to government orders or encouragement. The real power in Middle East dictatorships is in the palace, not the street. Far from being a totally spontaneous phenomenon, anti-Americanism is manufactured in the institutions controlled by the state: schools, media, mosques, official statements, and many other places. For the rulers, anti-Americanism is a useful tool to let the people blow off steam and deflect blame from the state. The reason you are poor, have no freedoms, and don't get everything you want -- the people are daily told -- is due not to a corrupt, incompetent government but American misdeeds. The reason why Israel has not been destroyed, the Arab world united, or Islam more properly practiced is also blamed on the United States. In reality, Middle Eastern anti-Americanism has much in common with the anti-Americanism that previously ruled the Communist world. Once people consider their dictators to be vulnerable, they may stop accepting the distraction of anti-Americanism and focus on their real problems and true tormentors. And once the dictatorships fall -- as was seen in Russia -- the anti-Americanism they fostered dissipates with remarkable speed. Third, a post-Saddam Iraq seen as reasonably democratic, independent of American control, and improving its people's lives might become a model, promoting the cause of representative government and human rights in the region. If so, the United States would get credit and not blame for its actions. Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (Gloria) Center and author of The Tragedy of the Middle East (Cambridge University Press, 2002) http://chronicle.com Section: The Chronicle Review Volume 49, Issue 11, Page B10
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Copyright © 2002 by The Chronicle of Higher Education