From the issue dated November 8, 2002
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America's Role in the WorldWhen I served as chairman of the National Intelligence Council, which prepares
remind my staff that there are many futures, and their probabilities often depend on what we do. I offer two futures that vary by whether the war is unilateral or multilateral. October 2007: The third major terrorist attack this year has cost thousands of American lives, shaken investor confidence in the world economy, and further strained our bonds with Europe. Our allies had warned in 2002 that, if the United States invaded Iraq without the support of the international community, we would fall into bin Laden's trap of a clash of civilizations and help recruit a new generation of Islamic terrorists. We chose to go it alone and have been diverted from finishing the victory against Al Qaeda. Israel's retaliatory strike against Iraq has led to riots that have overthrown the Hashemite regime in Jordan and caused other moderate regimes in the Middle East to distance themselves from the United States. The assassination of Afghan President Hamid Karzai has bogged us down in Afghanistan as well as Iraq. While the United States is still able to use Kuwait as a base for its occupation troops, Turkey has restricted the use of its airspace, and a weakened NATO has been slow to help. Since the terrorists have concentrated on American targets, our allies have been measured in their support in the war against terrorism, and the U.N. Security Council has remained badly fractured. The United States remains the only military superpower, but it has squandered a good deal of its soft power, the ability to attract support. October 2007: Iraq has just held its first real elections under the eyes of international monitors protected by a U.N. peacekeeping force. The democratization of Iraq has been a slow process, but it is providing a beneficial demonstration in the region. U.S.-European cooperation has remained strong since the NATO-based coalition went to war to enforce the U.N. resolution that Saddam Hussein allow full inspections or suffer the consequences. While there were some protests in Arab countries, the fact that the short war had broad international support meant that the protests were short-lived. The postwar discovery that Saddam Hussein had been cheating on his commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and U.N. disarmament resolutions further limited the protests. The position of the United States in the region is the strongest it has been since 1991. Joseph S. Nye Jr., dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and author of The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone (Oxford University Press, 2002) http://chronicle.com Section: The Chronicle Review Volume 49, Issue 11, Page B10
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Copyright © 2002 by The Chronicle of Higher Education