Number of Ph.D.'s Awarded Rebounds After a 1-Year Dip

Biggest drops are in physical sciences and education, while humanities fields gain

By ELIZABETH F. FARRELL

After a one-year decrease that experts now call a quirk,

ALSO SEE: Earned Doctorates, 2000 Doctorates in the Physical and Life Sciences, 1990-2000

the number of doctorates awarded by American research universities rose slightly from 1999 to 2000.

The increase of 0.8 percent, from 41,060 to 41,368, suggests that predictions that universities might be reining in the growth of their doctoral programs because of a perceived oversupply of people with Ph.D.'s were exaggerated. But the modesty of the increase indicates that, as has been true since the mid-1990s, the rate of growth in the number of people seeking Ph.D.'s is leveling off.

"I think 1999 was a temporary aberration, and the rates of growth over the past five years have been very consistent," said Allen R. Sanderson, a senior research scientist at the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center, which conducts the annual "Survey of Earned Doctorates" for six federal agencies.

"We're averaging 1-percent growth over the last five years" of the 1990s, "as opposed to 2-to-3-percent growth for the first five years," he said.

Mr. Sanderson, a senior lecturer in economics at Chicago, said he expected the growth rate to remain fairly steady in the next few years, although other experts said the current economic downturn might lift enrollment in doctoral programs.

"We just saw an increase in graduate-school enrollment from 1999 to 2000, which usually coincides with a larger number of people pursuing doctorates," said Peter Syverson, vice president for research at the Council of Graduate Schools. "Enrollment numbers usually increase as the unemployment rate rises."

Although the overall number of doctorates awarded grew, the increase was not consistent across the disciplines. Life sciences registered the largest growth, up 4.7 percent from 1999, and physical sciences the biggest loss, 4.1 percent.

Those contrasting fortunes continue a pattern that has held for several years. "About 25 years ago, both science fields were virtually equal, awarding about 5,000 Ph.D.'s each," said Mr. Sanderson. "Since then, the amount awarded in physical sciences has grown by about 20 percent, and the amount in life sciences has surged 75 percent."

However, the number of doctorates awarded in the physical sciences has fallen by 9.1 percent since 1997. "This decline is worrisome because it reflects certain structural problems within the system that aren't going to go away," said Shirley M. Malcom, director of education and human resources for the American Association for the Advancement of Science. "The number of women and minorities in these fields aren't increasing at rates similar to other fields. In the long haul, if we can't reverse this trend, we'll be facing a dire situation."

In 2000, women accounted for 1,466, or 24.1 percent, of the 6,077 doctorates awarded in the physical sciences, compared with 3,997, or 46.9 percent, of the 8,529 Ph.D.'s granted in the life sciences. Minority-group members accounted for 12.5 percent of Ph.D.'s in the physical sciences and 15.2 percent in the life sciences.

Scientists attributed the greater rate of growth in life-sciences Ph.D.'s in part to groundbreaking advances in research in the field.

"When you think about kids in college deciding what they want to do with their lives, 30 or 40 years ago they might have been reading about the space race and atomic power, which made things like physics and aeronautics seem more salient," said D. Roderick Kiewiet, dean of graduate studies at the California Institute of Technology. "But over the past 20 years, there has been an established trend of major advances in our study of biological disciplines, like cell biology and neuroscience."

In 2000, both fields hit their highest levels of earned doctorates ever, with Ph.D.'s in cell biology totaling 337, up 15.1 percent from the previous year, and neuroscience reaching 495, up 14.8 percent.

The ready supply of financial support and the appeal of job prospects in the life sciences are also a draw, he said.

The number of humanities Ph.D.'s rebounded after a small dip in 1999, rising from 5,451 to 5,634. Humanities showed the largest gain -- 11.3 percent -- of any of the seven broad fields in the survey from 1995 to 2000. Besides humanities, physical sciences, and life sciences, they are engineering, social sciences and psychology, education, and "professional and other fields."

At a time when the number of academic jobs for Ph.D.'s in the humanities is decreasing, many professors argue that universities must change the way they train and advise graduate students about their postdoctoral options.

"It's part of an unfortunate trend that doesn't have to be unfortunate if mentors would encourage their students to think more creatively about career options," said Robert Weisbuch, president of the Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation, which promotes job opportunities outside academe for humanities Ph.D's. "We have what's tantamount to a major economic depression in these fields, and one hopes that departments would pay attention to that fact."

Other programs with a focus similar to the foundation's have sprung up in response to this need, including one at the Center for Innovation and Research in Graduate Education, at the University of Washington at Seattle.

The Chicago survey found that only 61.5 percent of humanities Ph.D.'s have "definite commitments" for employment or postdoctoral research.

"The main thing is not setting graduate students up for disappointment," said Nancy A. Hewitt, a council member of the American Studies Association and a professor of history at Rutgers University at New Brunswick. "The problem is less about the number entering these programs than the definition of what jobs are suitable for them in the outside world."

The number of doctorates awarded in education fell to 6,420, the lowest since 1991, contributing to a decline of 3.5 percent since 1995.

"The numbers are troubling, especially because they are in areas where we need more people to train teachers, like elementary and secondary education," said Arthur Levine, president of Teachers College of Columbia University.

In direct contrast, the number of female and minority Ph.D. recipients over all reached their highest level ever, with women earning 18,121 of the doctorates awarded in 2000, or 43.8 percent of the total, and minority Americans earning 16 percent.

Asian-Americans, with 1,407 doctorates, had the highest rate of growth, at 6.4 percent, and black Americans had the second-highest rate, 3.9 percent, for a total of 1,656 doctorates. The number of Hispanic-Americans receiving doctorates in 2000 increased by 0.5 percent over 1999, while the number earned by American Indians fell by 22.2 percent, to 169.

From 1995 to 2000, the number of doctorates earned by minority Americans grew by 25.1 percent.

"While these numbers are encouraging, they're no cause for celebration," said Mr. Syverson of the Council of Graduate Schools. "I would say there aren't enough minorities in any fields, and we still have a ways to go."

The survey also tracks the number of Ph.D.'s awarded by individual colleges. Of the 406 universities in the United States that awarded doctoral degrees in the 1999-2000 academic year, the University of California at Berkeley handed out the most, at 751, followed by University of Wisconsin at Madison, which awarded 728.

For the first time in the past four years, the University of Texas at Austin did not lead the pack, falling to fourth place with 656 Ph.D.'s, a drop of almost 100 from 1999, when it awarded 752.

John D. Dollard, associate dean of the graduate-studies program at Texas, said the numbers surprised him. The university had not undertaken any specific policies to limit the amount of doctoral degrees it awarded, he said. "I agree it's a big drop, and it certainly seems puzzling. But our numbers for the 2000-1 academic year show a total of 720 doctoral degrees, which tells me that although there was a temporary drop, it's not continuing, and we seem to be back on an even keel."

The "Survey of Earned Doctorates" is financed by the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Education, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Endowment for the Humanities, the National Institutes of Health, and the National Science Foundation.

Free copies of "Summary Report 2000: Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities," are expected to be available in December from the National Opinion Research Center, Doctorate Data Project, 1155 East 60th Street, Chicago 60637. Data tables are available now on the center's Web site (http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/issues/docdata.htm).

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