• May 30, 2016

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 1 
 on: Today at 06:15:32 pm 
Started by kaysixteen - Last post by pigou
Huh.  I get emails and tweets and more from the Clinton campaign, and that's not the slogan that I see.    (I suspect the misogynist Mr. Maher does not see those. . . .)  And as for the polls, 538's amalgamation of polling does not show a  tie. 
I'm not sure what the point of the ad hominem is. "Ready for Hillary" is a Super PAC that has since renamed itself "Ready PAC." If you Google it, you see their campaign-style bus with the slogan, plus plenty of pictures at rallies and events where people have the "Ready for Hillary" sign.

I'm not sure she has an official slogan. The campaign store features: "#HillYes" (as in "hell yes"), "Hillary y'all!," "I believe that she will win!," and "I'm with her." (I follow politics closely, but haven't subscribed to any of her emails, and couldn't have named one of those -- what does that say? And I live in a battleground state.) Contrast this with "Make America Great Again" -- which is a mandate, as was Obama's "Change."

As for the 538 polls: Clinton had a massive lead (10+ points) up until Trump secured the nomination. Since the model takes into account a longer window, this still carries over. The last 8 polls (all taken in May) range from Clinton +6 (CNN/NYT) to Trump +5 (Rasmussen), with Clinton averaging +1 -- that seems pretty close to me: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

National polls don't really matter, since it comes down to some battleground states and it's way too early for state polling. But it's an indication that "Clinton +10" is pretty unlikely. 538 discusses this tightening of the race in their latest election podcast, but don't yet seem to have an article on it.

Quote
Of course, as you say, such polls cannot tell us much it's down to two nominees -- as it already is (and has been since mid-March on the Democratic side), but it won't settle down until Sanders stops suing the Democrats  and demanding that Barney Frank be dumped from the convention and dissing Barbara Boxer and whoknowswhatnext.  More important, who knows when such stuff stops; if he keeps it up, yes, that could screw it up. 
Of course it would be better for the Clinton campaign if Sanders just conceded already. But whatever Sanders is throwing at her isn't even in the same ballpark as what Trump will dig up. Recall that Trump had his "special investigators" go to Hawaii to try and proof that Obama was really from Kenya (and how many people, do you think, believe to this day that it's true?). Trump recently insinuated that the Clintons had someone murdered (to preserve my sanity, I'm not going to google whether there's a poll asking how many people actually believe that one). If you're expecting a more civil general election campaign than these primaries, I don't know what to tell you... it's probably not going to happen.

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And, of  course, 2000 also taught us to not look at the polls but to look at the Electoral College map.  Analyses of that do not bode well for The Donald.
I haven't seen much state level polling and what little there is predates the tightening of the race. I hope that Clinton will get her bump after the convention...

 2 
 on: Today at 06:12:53 pm 
Started by see_wolf - Last post by skinnymargarita
Paris Hilton

 3 
 on: Today at 06:11:02 pm 
Started by see_wolf - Last post by skinnymargarita
top sirloin

 4 
 on: Today at 05:53:35 pm 
Started by tuxedo_cat - Last post by drbrt
I round 1 with the flea comb with minimal loss of blood. Next step: treating every inch of carpet and upholstery and about 10 billion loads of laundry.

 5 
 on: Today at 05:43:15 pm 
Started by rose_fingered_dawn - Last post by happyelephant
Quote
Once he sets and you commit to a timeline, you are perfectly within your rights to simply say, this is when I will be able to work on it. I won't be available in the summer so it needs to be done now.

This is very true, although very hard. I will have to practice what to say on this. 

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Also, I would reframe yourself away from the anxiety, at least for public purposes. Don't let them pigeonhole you.
Everyone gets upset.  Choose a new brand for these purposes - you are a great multitasker but others need to do their part. You get stressed when they don't meet their own deadlines.

Start saying things like, "I'm of course CONCERNED that these funds come in. The whole lab has a great number of things that WE must coordinate. WE need to be able to plan so it is, of course, a CONCERN when others don't stick to the plan. WE're on a tight timeline."  Etc.

Yes, this is great advice. I have to remember that he's trying to focus on my reaction as emotional, but I should make the conversation about the actual issue (both out loud and in my own mind): I'm concerned that he's not sticking to the timeline, making it hard for my co-author* and I to be able to plan. Our ability to plan is important because we're on a tight timeline and our organization has so many things going on this summer. 

*My co-author (also junior, but a faculty member) is unfortunately out of the country and has limited internet for the next month, so won't be able to be at the meeting. 

 6 
 on: Today at 05:33:26 pm 
Started by kaysixteen - Last post by proftowanda
This is one of the best analyses of Trump v Clinton I have seen. The video clip from Scott Adams on Bill Maher is well worth watching. If anyone advising HRC is wise, they would sit her down with this, and then hire Adams to run communications for the campaign.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2016/05/28/here-are-trumps-tools-for-presidential-victory-dilbert-creator-underscores-on-bill-maher-video/

I'm not going to watch the video, but I think he'd fit in better on the Trump campaign. He's a misogynist jerk.
I know nothing about the guy and have never seen him on TV, but his analysis of how Trump is motivating and persuading people, how he's getting labels to "stick," etc. is spot on and illuminating. "Lying Ted" and "Little Marco" stuck, and "Corrupt Hillary"  is exploding on Google Trends. It doesn't matter if there are no credible accusations, that association is going to stick. Whatever his personal views may be, this is something the Clinton campaign better have realized a long time ago or she's in deep trouble.

We've seen this sense of inevitability in 2000 ("I don't know anyone who's voting for Bush!") -- and we know how that turned out. Let's realize that Clinton is tied against Trump in general election polls. You may dismiss polls as inaccurate at this point in time, but pundits have been doing that ever since Trump took the lead in the very first polls. Let's do some Bayesian updating here and accept that President Trump isn't as unlikely as many people would like to think it is.

I think he also rightly observes that Trump is not a "loose cannon," but is deliberately crafting the image of being such. You cannot argue with success: he's beaten people who had massively more funding, more professionally run campaigns, and support from the establishment (which actively worked against Trump: when was the last time Fox news fact-checked a Republican candidate?).

I think Maher also rightly pointed out that "Ready for Hillary" is a horrible slogan. That's something a doctor would say ("are you ready for your colonoscopy?"), not something showing how excited you are to have someone who, as a matter of fact, is an exceptionally qualified and experienced candidate. Elections are won at the margins and there's scary little indication that Clinton's campaign is moving the needle there.

Huh.  I get emails and tweets and more from the Clinton campaign, and that's not the slogan that I see.    (I suspect the misogynist Mr. Maher does not see those. . . .)  And as for the polls, 538's amalgamation of polling does not show a  tie. 

Of course, as you say, such polls cannot tell us much it's down to two nominees -- as it already is (and has been since mid-March on the Democratic side), but it won't settle down until Sanders stops suing the Democrats  and demanding that Barney Frank be dumped from the convention and dissing Barbara Boxer and whoknowswhatnext.  More important, who knows when such stuff stops; if he keeps it up, yes, that could screw it up. 

And, of  course, 2000 also taught us to not look at the polls but to look at the Electoral College map.  Analyses of that do not bode well for The Donald.

 7 
 on: Today at 05:26:15 pm 
Started by elsie - Last post by terpsichore
I just took everything out of my closet, plus the overflow clothes from another closet, and used the Marie Kondo method to sort it all out. A giant bag went into the trash and another giant bag is going to Goodwill. It feels good and I can see what I have, but I still think I kept too much.


 8 
 on: Today at 04:58:32 pm 
Started by mathofsorts - Last post by kron3007
To me one of the main things you learn in graduate school is how to learn things independently, so I really don't see how a second PhD would be of much value here.  This is one of the main points of having sabbatical, so you can immerse yourself and learn new techniques/subjects and another degree seems unnecessary to me.  I think it would be a hard sell to your department and your potential advisor, who would both likely be scratching their head as some of the readers here are.     

 9 
 on: Today at 04:51:52 pm 
Started by see_wolf - Last post by fishprof
on top

 10 
 on: Today at 04:25:51 pm 
Started by fiona - Last post by flyingbison

And to anyone  who engages in such sports as mountain biking, race car driving, heli-skiing. 


Huh?  These people are hit in the head dozens of times a day??

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