Dropbox hacked and my data compromised: let's say 1 in 10,000
I think this is an underestimate.
When Dropbox was caught lying last year about employee access to user data, they changed their security statement, not the actual security levels.
Articles about universities exposing student records show up regularly on CHE and elsewhere, usually it is just through one faculty or staff member's negligence, and it often results in the university having to spend millions on settlements, credit reporting services, etc. It is not a small thing. Of course, the damages are far less if it is only a handful of classes that are compromised.
Any of my computers going belly-up: 1 in 1000
I'm
certain this is an underestimate, unless your computers do not use hard drives.
Conclusion: there are risks to using Dropbox. But it makes backup efficient.
The point is that there are backup systems that are at least as easy and far more secure. Services like Spideroak and Crashplan, for example, both back up automatically in the background, are free-to-cheap, and have very strong client-side encryption. - DvF
Yes. I've balanced security needs with convenience and workflow requirements.
I'm doubtful that there's much more than a 1 x 10^-5 probability of my data getting hacked. But I have no risk data, and, frankly, neither does anyone else. So that's my guesstimate.
The probability of all my computers failing is very, very small. I have about six different machines--new pc, old pc, Mac air, iMac, old linux box--I can work on, so if the chance of any one of them failing is 1x10^-4 in any given week (a very conservative estimate), the chance of all them failing nearly simultaneously would be about 1x10^-24 (I realize that the odds of a failure are lower in a given week than across the lifespan of a typical computer.)
Also, YMMV, but I've not had a computer fail due to a HDD failure in over 15 years. The last machine that failed outright had a faulty motherboard, the result of, I think, a power surge that didn't hurt any other device in the house (and yes, that machine was connected to a surge protector, albeit a cheapie).
That said, I agree I can do better with security, and will look at these other solutions. But I have to weigh reasonable risks against real world working conditions, and I am just not that worried. This may come back to bite me later (that is, it's a non-zero probability), but the chances of having something bad happening are low.
An exception, though: if I had identifiable data for research subjects, I would never entrust it to Dropbox. Indeed, I am not sure I would even store it on a machine accessible via the internet, because the consequences are just too great.