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[abd_jhs]

I'm just wondering how often SCs will make an offer, only to have it shot down by the candidate?

[larryc]

At my old school, a four-year teaching school in the rural midwest with low salaries, we were sometimes turned down by our top choice--even in history! This happened maybe a quarter of the time.

[glowdart]

It varies, here and at other places I've been.  There are some departments which have a hell of a time getting people to accept offers. But, most departments don't have trouble getting one of the top three to accept.  How many times does a search go to the second or third candidate?  I'm really not sure outside of a small and thus skewed sample.  

For the failed searches and for the refused offers, I'm not sure how much is due to the search committee not screening well, the salary, the teaching load, broad disciplinary issues or specific departmental issues.  It is, I suspect, some combination of these things, with slightly different variations depending on which department we're talking about.  

[shrek]

In the last 5 searches in my department, we've gone to the 2nd candidate once, and to the 3rd candidate once.

[ann05]

In my brief search history, I withdrew from two searches for which I was a finalist. I was the second choice once but offered the job (and accepted, and then ultimately had to withdraw due to financial misdeeds on their end). I believe I was the first choice at the position I accepted and finally ended up at. So for 3/4 positions, I turned them down, more or less. 

[ufo_tofu]

Hmm, my teaching heavy, rural school has gone to the second candidate 3 times out of the last 5 searches. 

[systeme_d_]

I think it may depend on a concatenation of factors.  My last job was in a rural, but very well regarded state university, and my field is small.  We never had anyone turn down an offer for a TT position. 

I clearly remember several occasions on which our first choices turned down VAP offers, but that's because they received TT offers elsewhere, decided to wait another year before taking any job, or took a job outside of the academy.

[busyslinky]

For us, the more senior a position/person, the more likely the turn down (>50%).  We have had much better luck with very junior people (<50%) turn down.  But overall, about 50%.  We do not pay as much as competitor schools and we try to go after top candidates from the whole market.

[totoro]

The only first choice person who turned us down recently was an internal candidate who decided to take a position in the country where he does his field work instead. We have a lot of searches going on (Go8 university in Australia).

[oatmeal]

OP--In my experience at different types of institutions in different locations it is about 40-50% decline rate for the first choice at the Asst. level and above 50% for tenured/senior hires. Most of the declines at the Asst. level involved a candidate taking what they thought was a better offer at a "better" institution. No one turned an offer and ended up with no TT job that year. A few at the Asst. stayed at their current institution and probably used an offer as leverage. Most at the senior level did that, but not all.

[litdawg]

This thread suggests that longer periods of silence after the campus interviews should not be considered the kiss of death. Yet another circumstance that people can't overanalyze. . .

[dalekk]

I think people saying that assistant prof level jobs are declined 40-50% is way off for today's job market in the humanities.  In the last few years, I can only think of one person I know who turned down a t-t job at the entry level.  I can think of maybe a dozen who accepted jobs, b/c they had no other offers.  The reality is that this year I only know one person who has more than one campus visit for a t-t job.  You need to get more than one campus visit to be able to turn down a job and that's not happening in this market--at least, not in the humanities.  I would guess the number of declines in the humanities for entry level t-t jobs this year will  probably be under 20% and I think it's probably closer to 10%.

If you're giving concrete examples from your institution, you have to tell us the field and years they're from to mean anything.  Mid-2000s versus now is apples and oranges, imo. 

[polly_mer]

You need to get more than one campus visit to be able to turn down a job

That's not true.  I have turned down jobs without another offer in hand because I'd rather stay on the market than take a job when just the interview made me shudder.

[glowdart]

I think people saying that assistant prof level jobs are declined 40-50% is way off for today's job market in the humanities.  In the last few years, I can only think of one person I know who turned down a t-t job at the entry level.  I can think of maybe a dozen who accepted jobs, b/c they had no other offers.  The reality is that this year I only know one person who has more than one campus visit for a t-t job.  You need to get more than one campus visit to be able to turn down a job and that's not happening in this market--at least, not in the humanities.  I would guess the number of declines in the humanities for entry level t-t jobs this year will  probably be under 20% and I think it's probably closer to 10%.

If you're giving concrete examples from your institution, you have to tell us the field and years they're from to mean anything.  Mid-2000s versus now is apples and oranges, imo.  

Remember, too, that things look very different from the applicant side of things vs. the institutional side.  Some of this is because we see more volume on campus, and some of it is because there are, as I said above, departments which always have trouble and departments which almost never do. 

If you want numbers, then I, too, know only one person who has turned down an entry-level offer in the last three years out of maybe 10 people who took jobs, but I can also think of at least 10 turned down offers on campus in same time period.  The different point of view easily produces different percentages, in part because candidates are limited to the people they know and often to 1-2 disciplines whereas people on campus are only limited to campus searches to which they are privy to information. 

[janewales]

In my humanities department, in the last few searches we've run, I would say we have gone to our second choice  about half the time. Even in this market, the people in whom we are interested usually have other options, either in the form of multiple offers, or in the form of tenure-track positions they already hold. We're very competitive on the salary front, but can't do some of the things that people hope to achieve by going on the market (spousals, say), and so sometimes, instead of bagging our first choice, we end up as the bargaining chip for that first choice person with his/ her other options, or current employer.