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scampster
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« on: January 31, 2012, 02:03:53 PM » |
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So I am about to book a flight. I often get the first class upgrade due to my silver elite status on Delta, but not always. My flight date is flexible and I am trying to figure out if I can choose a flight based on the likelihood of getting a first class upgrade so I can bring more luggage. The first class cabin has 24 seats. I can see how many first class seats are booked already and I can also see how many of the premium seats in coach are booked (which can only be booked by other elite people, and thus other people who might outrank me for an upgrade).
Here are my options:
Friday AM: 1 seat booked in first, 23 premium seats booked
Saturday AM: 1 in first, 17 premium
Sunday AM: 5 in first, 11 premium
There are some other considerations. The flight lands at JFK at 3:30pm (every day is the same flight schedule), which makes me think that Friday is unlikely to be booked at the last minute by business travelers. But would Sunday then be more likely to be booked up? Or is it too early in the day for business travelers trying to get to NYC for Monday?
Also, should I include in my decision the premium seats that are booked next to a booked middle seat? Meaning the premium flier is traveling with someone and unlikely to take an upgrade (unless they have really high status that gives them companion upgrades). Since there are still plenty of non-premium non-middle seats left, I assume that the traveling companion wants to travel together, not sit separately on the flight (thus would be pissed if their partner went to first class and left them in a middle seat).
Any other things I should consider while trying to game the system? This is the difference between me getting to bring 3 70lb bags for free with me to Europe or being restricted to 2 50lb bags unless I pay more.
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scampster
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2012, 02:10:21 PM » |
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If I eliminate the seats that were obviously booked in a pair, I have
Friday: 16 premium seats booked
Saturday: 13 premium seats
Sunday: 6 premium seats
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When you are a scientist your opinions and prejudices become facts. Science is like magic that way!
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madhatter
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« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2012, 04:16:27 PM » |
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Sunday looks like your best bet, though I think getting any upgrade as a silver these days is pretty unlikely. How far out is the flight? If it's more than a few days, I'd expect a lot of those empty seats to fill up with golds and platinums.
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scampster
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« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2012, 04:32:30 PM » |
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Sunday looks like your best bet, though I think getting any upgrade as a silver these days is pretty unlikely. How far out is the flight? If it's more than a few days, I'd expect a lot of those empty seats to fill up with golds and platinums.
About a month out. Last year about this time I took this flight twice, once on a Monday and once on a Thursday and got the upgrade on the Thursday, but not on the Monday (not surprisingly). I've had pretty good luck with Delta upgrades (probably 50%), even recently. But yeah, silver isn't so fancy anymore. |
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bacardiandlime
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2012, 04:49:22 PM » |
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I'm a little confused: are you hoping for an international upgrade? (hence the luggage query). They're much harder to swing. I've only once been bumped to business transatlantic, and I'm gold with United.
But I'm upgraded to first on North America flights pretty much every time.
However, my status allows me three bags regardless the ticket I buy. Doesn't Delta have a similar thing for you?
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YOU ARE NASTY
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scampster
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2012, 05:14:20 PM » |
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I'm a little confused: are you hoping for an international upgrade? (hence the luggage query). They're much harder to swing. I've only once been bumped to business transatlantic, and I'm gold with United.
But I'm upgraded to first on North America flights pretty much every time.
However, my status allows me three bags regardless the ticket I buy. Doesn't Delta have a similar thing for you?
No, Delta just gives you one more bag above the regular person limit, which I believe is just one for Europe. I am hoping just for the upgrade on the first leg (I'm not elite enough for an international upgrade), as that is where the luggage will be checked. I've never been denied first class luggage privileges if only my first leg was in first, but maybe they are more diligent about this if there is an international leg, in which case my plan is shot. They are clear that if you have an international leg, you are subject to the international baggage rules, but they aren't clear about how that plays out with mixed cabins. I'd call if I got the upgrade to clarify. In any case, just getting the upgrade for a 6 hour flight would be nice :-) |
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bacardiandlime
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2012, 05:27:10 PM » |
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I've used these people before: http://www.firstluggage.co.uk/The service was pretty good, and much cheaper than excess baggage fees. |
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scampster
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2012, 05:36:40 PM » |
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It was $400 for one suitcase! Delta charges $80 for one excess bag. |
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bacardiandlime
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2012, 06:04:13 PM » |
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I was going Asia to Europe, and it was less than I was going to have to pay at that time. YMMV.
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scampster
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2012, 08:04:42 PM » |
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I was going Asia to Europe, and it was less than I was going to have to pay at that time. YMMV.
Thanks for the tip though - it definitely seems reasonable for oversize items, which I may end up bringing. |
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bacardiandlime
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2012, 02:04:20 AM » |
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$80 for a bag from US to Europe is a steal though. I'd just pay it rather than stress over upgrades.
Amusingly (?), my use of first luggage occurred due to my not getting an upgrade (that I had booked with miles - I didn't get it because the flight filled up with paying business class passengers).
I was facing the kind of excess baggage fee that is per kilo.
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YOU ARE NASTY
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scampster
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2012, 02:05:39 AM » |
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$80 for a bag from US to Europe is a steal though. I'd just pay it rather than stress over upgrades.
Amusingly (?), my use of first luggage occurred due to my not getting an upgrade (that I had booked with miles - I didn't get it because the flight filled up with paying business class passengers).
I was facing the kind of excess baggage fee that is per kilo.
Oh man! |
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When you are a scientist your opinions and prejudices become facts. Science is like magic that way!
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zyzzx
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2012, 05:16:07 AM » |
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oooh, I didn't know that Silver got upgrades on Delta.
I might have to rethink my strategy. I'm Skyteam elite, but on an airline that requires 40,000 miles to get there (instead of 25,000 like everyone else). I just booked an international flight on Delta, input my other airline ff number, and somehow got myself economy comfort seats without having to pay for them. But I'd rather accrue miles on Delta than on the other airline. I wonder if I can get them to switch to my Delta ff number, but still keep my perks from my status on other airline... I could definitely get up to Silver this year.
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madhatter
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2012, 11:29:35 AM » |
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oooh, I didn't know that Silver got upgrades on Delta.
I might have to rethink my strategy. I'm Skyteam elite, but on an airline that requires 40,000 miles to get there (instead of 25,000 like everyone else). I just booked an international flight on Delta, input my other airline ff number, and somehow got myself economy comfort seats without having to pay for them. But I'd rather accrue miles on Delta than on the other airline. I wonder if I can get them to switch to my Delta ff number, but still keep my perks from my status on other airline... I could definitely get up to Silver this year.
Upgrades for silvers are pretty rare, especially with the high loads Delta is flying now. It can happen, though. |
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"I may be an evil scientist, but it doesn't take a degree purchased from the Internet with your ex-wife's money to know how special and important you are to me." -- Dr. Doofenschmirtz
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zyzzx
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2012, 01:00:27 PM » |
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oooh, I didn't know that Silver got upgrades on Delta.
I might have to rethink my strategy. I'm Skyteam elite, but on an airline that requires 40,000 miles to get there (instead of 25,000 like everyone else). I just booked an international flight on Delta, input my other airline ff number, and somehow got myself economy comfort seats without having to pay for them. But I'd rather accrue miles on Delta than on the other airline. I wonder if I can get them to switch to my Delta ff number, but still keep my perks from my status on other airline... I could definitely get up to Silver this year.
Upgrades for silvers are pretty rare, especially with the high loads Delta is flying now. It can happen, though. Well, rare is better than never. And I've a decent chance of getting to gold (and skyteam elite plus) on Delta, but no chance of getting there on the other airline (which requires 70,000 miles instead of 50,000 for some very annoying reason). Of course, what would be really useful to know in strategizing these things is whether I'm going to find a job, and therefore what country I'm going to be living in next year... |
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