For me, I would trade a secure, tenured position for a nontenured, but nontemporary slot (assuming the position has some base funding, core clientele) if the latter provided an intellectual future. Namely, I would prefer a position that offered personal growth if the choice were a permanent trip to stagnation. If you can excel in the position, it seems like there would be some resistance to cutting you loose in any case.
This is exactly what I have been hearing. I really appreciate all this valuable feedback. It's clearer to me now that the idea of change is what you make it. I need to really think about this more seriously.