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Author Topic: 2012 Presidential race  (Read 215686 times)
proftowanda
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"Righter of wrongs, queen beyond compare."


« Reply #1800 on: November 03, 2012, 6:35:19 PM »


Okay, here's my bet: Obama wins because he gets Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The others, I'm less willing to call--especially Florida and Wisconsin, which historically suffer from a truly chaotic degree of last-minute indecision when voting.

There are no undecideds here in Wisconsin, believe me.  Not after the ideological wars that we've been through.

It's just that some of us don't tell pollsters what we've decided.  Some of us try to be Midwestern Nice and not talk about politics (from long practice in a swing state, with a 50-50 chance that the person next to you is an idiot, i.e., voting for that idiot), and others of us are so weary of life in a swing state, especially after the last year and a half of life amid massive protests and constant recall elections, that we just have our fun with the friggin' nonstop pollsters' calls and claim to be undecided, which drives pols and pollsters crazy.

I opt for another route out of the pollsters' calls.  I mess with their minds and data.  I tell them nothing true, i.e., I tell them that I'm a 19-year-old white male Ron Paul fanboy voting, from disappointment, for a write-in. 

Of course, a lot of the national pollsters don't do their homework and know our laws and don't give an option like a write-in or a third-party candidate or screw up their research design in other ways that do not accord with Wisconsin.  That's a reason that I see a lot of screwy reports on Wisconsin.  The idiots are the pollsters.



Ah, this explains a great deal, and redoubles my determination not to predict anything with regard to Wisconsin--much as I like the state, its lakes and cities, and many of its residents!

That's the correct call, proving that you are wiser than many pollsters telling us what we think.  Ha.

I'm here, I'm from here, I grew up in Wisconsin politics (a parent) and have been active in Wisconsin politics, and I have correctly called many a race here.  This year, I would not attempt to do so -- in part because of other factors, too:  Walker's/ALEC's draconian voter-suppression laws, some of the most severe in the country, but some that have gone back-and-forth in the courts, so even the voting commissions and poll workers are confused (read: lawsuits).  And dirty tricks, which have been abounding in recent weeks (some after practice runs in the recalls, which messed up those predictions -- and results, I think).  Oh, and the very populous Waukesha County, where the infamous clerk Kathy Nicklaus' dirty tricks/incompetence screwed up elections, and she was supposed to step aside, but she has not really done so and runs it with puppets.

Keep in mind that pollsters make their predictions by weighting their results based on precedents, as in which groups voted how and how much in, for example, the 2008 election -- which was, of course, an aberration in Wisconsin, one of the closest states (and in one, the closest state) in the 2000 and 2004 elections.  I cannot see from their reports whether pollsters are using as precedent the 2008 or 2004 or 2000 elections, or some combination.  I think that we're back to being a close call.

And then, there are other factors.  For one, the impact of the Senate race in Wisconsin, a very backward state about electing women to office, a reason for Obama's margin in the primary, too (i.e., Hillary Hate).  It's  the last states to have sent a woman even to Congress at all, i.e., to the House and not until 1999, and only from the county with Madison -- and Madison is, as we say, in Wisconsin but not of Wisconsin.  Whether that woman now can win a statewide race, I would not have predicted as possible (that she's the only outed lesbian in Congress is a factor, too).  But she has a shot, because the GOP candidate is a tired old retread. 

But a woman, a lesbian, on the ballot could help to really run up Republican turnout and help Romney -- at the same time that voter-suppression laws and tactics are aimed at students in Madison, Milwaukee, and across the state as well as minorities (almost all) in Milwaukee, where the dirty tricks of lies in training of Romney poll observers also could cause voter intimidation, as Walker poll observers did in the recalls, and . . . well, then there's also the weather, always a factor in Wisconsin.  It's not an April blizzard this time, but who knows?
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"Face it, girls.  I'm older, and I have more insurance."     -- Towanda!
fast_and_bulbous
bulbous also tapered
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« Reply #1801 on: November 03, 2012, 7:13:25 PM »

Nate Silver has WI 94% in favor of Obama. I'll eat my hat if WI goes red this year (Tilley will send me another one).

And go Tammy Baldwin! She is awesome.
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proftowanda
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"Righter of wrongs, queen beyond compare."


« Reply #1802 on: November 03, 2012, 7:24:49 PM »

Nate Silver has WI 94% in favor of Obama. I'll eat my hat if WI goes red this year (Tilley will send me another one).

And go Tammy Baldwin! She is awesome.

Yes, the majority of Wisconsin voters probably favor Obama and Baldwin.

Now, if all of those who want to vote do vote, and if all of their votes are counted as cast, all will be well. 

But that's not what has happened in Wisconsin lately.
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"Face it, girls.  I'm older, and I have more insurance."     -- Towanda!
dolljepopp
a "liberal neo-monarchist"
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So 'ne Driss...


« Reply #1803 on: November 03, 2012, 7:32:08 PM »

Obama by two, maybe three points in the popular vote, just either side of 300 in the EC.

Senate flat or net plus-one, maybe two, for the Republicans. Dems pick up a handful in the House, but well short of the majority.

The establishment/plutocrat wing of the GOP will try desperately to figure out how to wrest back control of the Party from the Crazy. They will fail. You dance with evil, you end up married to it.
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'... and who among us does not love a zombie metaphor?' - Gail Collins
yellowtractor
Vice-Provost of the University of the South-East Corner of Donkeyshire (formerly Donkeyshire Polytechnic) (a Post-1992 University) and also a
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« Reply #1804 on: November 03, 2012, 7:53:09 PM »

I don't know whether someone else posted about this earlier, but I find it profoundly interesting that the IRS has apparently not bothered to investigate churches that violate the prohibition on tax-exempt religious organizations engaging in partisan politics FOR THREE YEARS NOW:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/11/03/us/ap-us-irs-church-politics.html
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It is, of course, possible that what I remember as terror was only a love too great to bear.
pigou
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« Reply #1805 on: November 03, 2012, 9:36:15 PM »

I wish I knew someone in real life who thought Romney was certain to win and all the polls to the contrary are part of some conspiracy. They might be interested in betting on the outcome with even odds. As Romney would say, I'll bet you $10,000!
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daniel_von_flanagan
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Works all day. Posts all night. Needs sleep.


« Reply #1806 on: November 03, 2012, 9:56:29 PM »

It remains difficult to judge what Republican voters will do in the states where the GOP is running pro-rape candidates. - DvF
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mdwlark
hardly a
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« Reply #1807 on: November 03, 2012, 10:19:50 PM »

It remains difficult to judge what Republican voters will do in the states where the GOP is running pro-rape candidates. - DvF

Spot on.  A wave of sadness came over me as I read this.
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quantmeister
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« Reply #1808 on: November 03, 2012, 11:00:30 PM »

It remains difficult to judge what Republican voters will do in the states where the GOP is running pro-rape candidates. - DvF

And you wonder why all the mouth-breathers don't line up behind you, you being so clever and all ...
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daniel_von_flanagan
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Works all day. Posts all night. Needs sleep.


« Reply #1809 on: November 03, 2012, 11:28:43 PM »

Thank you for the complement.  However, I think you haven't seen the latest polls estimating my support among mouth-breathers.

(Seriously, get a grip.) - DvF
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The U.S. Education Department is establishing a new national research center to study colleges' ability to successfully educate the country's growing numbers of academically underprepared administrators.
barred_owl
Elegant yet understated
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« Reply #1810 on: November 03, 2012, 11:49:26 PM »

It remains difficult to judge what Republican voters will do in the states where the GOP is running pro-rape candidates. - DvF

Spot on.  A wave of sadness came over me as I read this.

Indeed.  It will be interesting to see what happens with our state legislator battle here (pro-rape GOP incumbent vs. clear-headed newbie Dem).

Driving around the countryside today, in a region in which that pro-rape GOP candidate is running, I'm somewhat comforted by the number of very large (4'x8' sheets of plywood), homemade pro-Obama signs that have sprouted up here and there, many of which are also surrounded by smaller signs for the local state legislator Dem candidates and for the woman running against an old codger for a U.S. Senate seat.
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...I can't help rooting for the underdog underbird.
mdwlark
hardly a
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« Reply #1811 on: November 04, 2012, 1:18:12 AM »

OK, my prediction:   Obama 281, Romney 257.   More remote possibility would be if a wave toward Obama starts sweeping the national landscape, then it will be Obama 319-323, Romney 219-215.  I'm predicting some kind of corruption or tampering of the election by the Republicans in either Florida, Wisconsin, or Ohio.  That part was easier to come up with than the numbers.
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pigou
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« Reply #1812 on: November 04, 2012, 2:02:03 AM »

Election Map Prediction

I hope the link works. :)

I assigned Florida to Obama, bringing him to 332 EVs. There's, of course, a good chance that he'll lose that state - but I'll sleep well on Tuesday even so. ;)
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parispundit
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« Reply #1813 on: November 04, 2012, 7:58:52 AM »

Prediction time, is it? I'll go more or less with Nate Silver: 300-305 EV for Obama, 53-54 Democratic Senators, Dems pick up 8 seats in House but are still minority party. Hold your hats kids, gridlocking down the fiscal cliff is gonna be wild.
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spork
If you are reading this, I am naked.
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« Reply #1814 on: November 04, 2012, 10:48:03 AM »

It remains difficult to judge what Republican voters will do in the states where the GOP is running pro-rape candidates. - DvF

And you wonder why all the mouth-breathers don't line up behind you, you being so clever and all ...

I resemble that remark. I have allergies.
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a.k.a. gum-chewing monkey in a Tufts University jacket

"There are no bad ideas, only great ideas that go horribly wrong."

"Please do not force people who are exhausted to take medication for hallucinations." -- Memo from the Chair, Department of White Privilege Studies, Fiork University
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