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Author Topic: Is the middle class disappearing?  (Read 13871 times)
clean
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« Reply #30 on: July 17, 2010, 10:27:32 PM »

Fizmath said things are more expensive. I  disagree.  Are they nominally more expensive?  Undoubtedly.  In real terms, no.  Is health care more expensive?  yes, but we are getting more of it, from arthritis to Viagra, there are lots of things that improved longevity and 'the golden years'.  

I am an advocate of the "How Many" approach over the "how much".  How much is in dollar (currency) terms, and How Many is how many hours you have to work to earn the money to bring it home.  In How Many terms, things like transportation are much cheaper.  Cars are much safer and much more economical than 30 years ago.

From:  http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/

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•The "real" price of gasoline: Gasoline cost 27 cents a gallon in 1949 compared to around $3.50 today.* How has the relative cost of buying gas changed over the last 61 years? Presented here are two tables computing the annual "real" cost using our seven indicators, one in 2009 dollars, and the other in 1949 dollars. While the two tables show the same trends, they do give a different perspective.

Using the 2009 table and the CPI and the GDP deflator, we see that gasoline was quite expensive in 1980 and 1981 and the cheapest in 1998 and 1999. Today, the real price using these two measures is higher than the period at the beginning of the 1980s.

By looking at the share of the Consumer Bundle and GDP per capita, the story is a bit different. In 1981, a gallon of gas took as much out of what the average consumer spent as $3.90 does in 2009. And as a share of GDP per capita, gas was even more expensive in those earlier days with it at over $4.60 in 1980 and more expensive in the earlier years. Both wage indexes show the prices then and now are similar.

The other table tells the story in a different way. Let us look at relative cost to a worker to fill up using 1949 dollars. That year the 27 cents it cost for a gallon of gas, took a certain share of the worker's wage. The interesting question is, has the cost as a share or percent of the worker's wage increased or decreased over time? The table shows that for the two wage rates and price of gasoline in other years, this cost has fallen. Since wages have increased faster than the price of gasoline, by 2009 an unskilled worker spends less than two-thirds as much, as a percent of wage, for a gallon of gasoline than the 1949 worker. For a production worker it is only half. The table shows that the $2.36 a worker paid in 2009 would be comparable to only 13 to 16 cents (in 1949 prices "share" of the wage.

When we use the GDP per capita, the cost has fallen faster. Looking at the table shows that a gallon of gasoline costs around 11 cents a gallon (in 1949 prices) if measured as a "share" of the GDP per capita. This is because in 1949, 27 cents was .015% of per capita GDP, while in 2007, $2.36 was .006%.

Finally, comparing its cost as a share of GDP, we see that in 1949 prices, it is about 4 cents. This means that a gallon gasoline was six times larger as a share of output in 1949 than it is today.
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dismalist
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« Reply #31 on: July 17, 2010, 10:28:44 PM »

How did "bimodal" get in here?

Income distributions in all times and places can be adequately described as log normal to the left of the peak and Pareto distributed to the right. For descriptive purposes, the parameters are different in different places , and they may well change over time, of course, but they change only a little. For analytic purposes, one has to think about why the parameters change. But there is no disappearing middle class, anywhere, as far as I can make out.

By the way, a good way of appreciating the Pareto distribution is to recognize that no matter how smart you are, there's a right tail of a Pareto distribution of people smarter than you [and me]. :-)

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euro_trash
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« Reply #32 on: July 17, 2010, 10:31:49 PM »

Help help I'm being repressed!
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I hate to sound like euro-trash, but
shastymcnasty
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« Reply #33 on: July 17, 2010, 10:40:18 PM »

If one wants to discuss whether the middle-class is disappearing, it seems that one should define the term.  Middle-class cannot be defined simply by income.  Someone who builds cars for a living may make 70K a year, but they are not middle-class.  They're working class.  So, there may be fewer manufacturing jobs in America today than in decades past, but this does not represent a decline in the middle-class.

When politicians bemoan the demise of the middle-class, they mean that you can't buy a house, a boat, a big-screen TV, and retire to Florida at age 55 after earning only an HS education and working a manufacturing job for 35 years.  Too bad.

I hate to sound like euro-trash, but never in history have so many people who were so poorly educated been so rich as working class Americans the past few generations.  Those days are over.
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clean
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« Reply #34 on: July 17, 2010, 10:44:05 PM »

Quote
Middle-class cannot be defined simply by income.  Someone who builds cars for a living may make 70K a year, but they are not middle-class. 

Would an English faculty member earning 45K be middle class because they have more education? 

An economist might argue that the services of the auto worker are clearly more valued to society (over 50% more valued)

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embitteredhistorian
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« Reply #35 on: July 17, 2010, 10:48:03 PM »

Fizmath said things are more expensive. I  disagree.  Are they nominally more expensive?  Undoubtedly.  In real terms, no.  Is health care more expensive?  yes, but we are getting more of it, from arthritis to Viagra, there are lots of things that improved longevity and 'the golden years'.  

We're not talking about differences between 1960 and 2010; we're talking about over the past 10 years. A lot of this increased cost has to do with paying for marketing, which drug companies spend more on than research.

Sources: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/04/nation/la-na-healthcare4-2010feb04
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080105140107.htm
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shastymcnasty
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« Reply #36 on: July 17, 2010, 10:49:23 PM »

Speaking as one, I'd say upper-middle.  Ever heard of genteel poverty?

I wish I could remember the author of the following statement.  He wrote the book _Snob: A study of class in America_.  He said that the only reliable class marker in America was the distinction between those who graduated from college and enjoyed it and those who didn't.
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clean
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« Reply #37 on: July 17, 2010, 10:53:32 PM »

Quote
We're not talking about differences between 1960 and 2010; we're talking about over the past 10 years. A lot of this increased cost has to do with paying for marketing, which drug companies spend more on than research.

But if they didnt advertise, how would I know that there was a cure for yellow toe nails, even though I dont have them!

And that there is a pill that helps your sex life by encouraging you and your lover to sit side by side in separate bath tubs!
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embitteredhistorian
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« Reply #38 on: July 17, 2010, 11:05:29 PM »

Quote
We're not talking about differences between 1960 and 2010; we're talking about over the past 10 years. A lot of this increased cost has to do with paying for marketing, which drug companies spend more on than research.

But if they didnt advertise, how would I know that there was a cure for yellow toe nails, even though I dont have them!

And that there is a pill that helps your sex life by encouraging you and your lover to sit side by side in separate bath tubs!

Or three bathtubs: http://www.hulu.com/watch/126476/saturday-night-live-cialis
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pigou
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« Reply #39 on: July 17, 2010, 11:14:38 PM »

You may also note that the author isn't disputing rising inequality. But nobody is debating that. Inequality is getting bigger because the wealthy are making even bigger gains - which is irrelevant when we're considering the gains made by the middle class.

I don't quite understand--why is it irrelevant? Doesn't it mean that there is less gains for the middle class?
Not at all - the economy isn't a zero-sum game. If your salary goes from $100k to $160k and mine goes from $60k to $90k, I'm better off than I was before. In our economy of two we have more inequality - but we wouldn't say that I was better off before I got my raise. It's also highly unlikely that I'd be paid more if only you got a smaller raise. It's a surprisingly widespread misunderstanding, though. You see it whenever someone claims that limiting top executive pay would somehow benefit workers. But the worker's position in the labor market doesn't improve because the CEO earns less, so he will see no benefit from it.
 
Quote
But there are other factors you don't consider, such as the outrageous increase in price of medical insurance and university tuition. These two stables of middle class life have increased far out of proportion to incomes, and I think they take a huge chunk out of most American families' incomes than do thinks like renting Louis Vuitton bags.
Health insurance is still mostly paid for by employers. The Census bureau does not consider that part of income, so when you see household data, it is always after insurance (if covered by the employer). Personal income, collected by the BEA, includes health insurance, so it appears to grow much faster.

Tuition is going up, but I don't know if there is any data on the bottom line for the middle class. You'd have to consider tax breaks, scholarships, grants, subsidized loans... in-state tuition also seems fairly reasonable. It's worth noting that many more people go to college today. So we might say that the expectation of a college degree is also fairly modern. In my opinion a good thing, of course, but that's another way in which today's middle class is much better off than their predecessors.

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Also, Americans have been groomed to spend. After 9/11 Bush famously told people to keep spending. Many Americans think that they only have value as consumers, and everyone from the media to their politicians reinforces this idea.
I wouldn't be surprised if we were much more influenced by advertisements today. The techniques used are certainly a lot more sophisticated. I'm fascinated by neuromarketing, especially when it actually works in practice. I remember a Swiss supermarket closing to change the layout of the store and boosting revenue significantly when they opened again. The biggest change they did was to move the entrance from the left side to the right - people spend more when they walk counter-clockwise through a store. :) They also optimized the flow after monitoring consumers in the store.

I sort of feel for consumers who aren't aware of how they're being influenced. At the same time, I'm not at a point where I'll accept consumers as mindless drones. Surely they give more thought to buying a house than selecting toothpaste?
Quote
I have had similar thoughts about students who come in with Starbucks coffees, but I don't think overprivileged 18yr olds not in the job market are a good indicator of middle class spending habits.
I'm not sure if they really are overprivileged - there are too many of them to represent the wealthy. They have to get their spending behavior from somewhere...

I will admit that the truly overprivileged ones are awesome to have around. You see, unemployment isn't actually a problem, because hu got a job over the summer working at a golf club. If he can get it, the fact that inner city blacks aren't driving out to work there must be a sign of their unwillingness to work. :)
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mad_doctor
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« Reply #40 on: July 18, 2010, 01:17:43 AM »

Whenever I see a bimodal distribution, I think there must be a missing variable, or perhaps two populations instead of one.   
In the case of income distribution, this is not normal in more ways than one, the most important being that in a free market we would probably expect a smooth, continuous distribution that is right-skewed, on account the natural variation of the market participants' abilities to operate in a free market.
Can you expand a little on this? It seems to me that income follows a log-normal distribution and wealth follows a power-law distribution. This also seems to be a fairly universal thing, and not limited to the US. It certainly is also true in the UK and in Germany, and I'd figure in just about any country. Why would you expect a plain normal distribution?

I also said that income distribution in the US isn't really bimodal, as one might expect if there were a disappearing middle class.  I didn't want to start using terms like log-normal in a non-technical discussion, but since the cat's out of the bag - yes, income distribution is log-normal.  When I said "In the case of income distribution, this is not normal in more ways than one...", I was referring to how if I saw a bimodal distribution (which I don't), it would not be "normal" both in the sense of not what I expect and in the sense that bimodality is not normal.  My intent was to argue that if someone is trying to say that the middle class is disappearing is tantamount to saying that there is some kind of bimodality going on, but since the evidence doesn't support that, then there must be something else going on, like more right-skewness.  I admit I probably could have been more clear in what I was trying to say.

Jefferson did say a lot of stuff like that, my favorite being, "Paper is poverty,... it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself."  The current economic crisis is indeed a crisis of worthless paper.
Yeah, I wouldn't give up the modern banking system just to avoid the occasional recession. The upsides greatly outweigh the potential downsides. We need more monetary flexibility, not less as the gold standard would impose. Look at the smaller countries in the Euro zone. For all the benefits the Euro brings, it prevents those members from having their own monetary policy that they could adjust based on their economic situation. Obviously, that greatly differs between countries in the union. The United States might be off much better if it weren't a monetary union and California could have a different monetary policy from, say, Texas.

"Money itself" is just as worthless as paper: gold only has value, because people ascribe value to it. Much the same as with a dollar bill - if you think it's worthless, I will happily take it. :) All it takes is for a government to ban the private possession of gold and you're not going to be paying bills with it.

Of course most of the "money" isn't even paper anymore, but exists only as 0s and 1s on computers. M0 (Cash) is roughly $900bn and half of that is estimated to be held abroad. M3 is no longer published, but I think the estimate is around $14tn? In any case, it's significantly more than $900bn, so our savings aren't even backed by paper anymore. I sleep just fine regardless. :)

I think this is one of those cases where the truth is somewhere between the two.  I prefer the modern banking system, but with a more transparent, tamper-free internal decision process, and one where the people are able to hold the decision-makers more accountable.  I think the best currency is one that is partially backed by gold and partially backed by real measures of wealth and productivity.  BTW, some guy named John Williams published his own estimates of M3 based on more-or-less the same criteria, so people who care about it can still keep track of inflation.
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