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[jonesey]

Because the news just keeps getting better.

From Inside Higher Ed:

The job picture in the humanities is going from bad to worse.

The Modern Language Association's annual forecast on job listings, being released today, predicts that positions in English language and literature will drop 35 percent from last year, while positions in languages other than English are expected to fall 39 percent this year. Given that both categories saw decreases last year, the two-year decline in available positions is 51 percent in English and 55 percent in foreign languages.

The declines in each of the last two years are the largest ever recorded by the MLA, since it started tracking the trends in the association's Job Information List 35 years ago. The list has also never had fewer notices of openings. The MLA's job list does not include all jobs in English and the humanities, but over time, the ups and downs in openings on the MLA list have been an excellent proxy for judging the overall state of the job market.

This is a historic low," said Rosemary Feal, executive director of the MLA. "We've never seen a recession like this."

Not only are departments being forced to hold off on searches for open positions, Feal said, but she is hearing that many scholars are delaying retirements because of depleted investment savings. "A lot of retirements aren't happening right now."

And then there's this:

The number of new doctorates awarded in 2008 was up slightly in English (to 965 from 927) and foreign languages (to 627 from 608). While those increases are in line with slight ups and downs in Ph.D. production, they indicate that the number of job seekers is likely to be up at a time when jobs are disappearing. This year's new Ph.D.s will be competing not only against each other, but against those who earned doctorates a year or two ago and who are either unemployed or underemployed.

[marigolds]

This was the first thing I read when I got up this morning.  Very depressing, especially when combined with a mild hangover.

I am going to write the s***tiest dissertation I can possibly write and get the hell out of here.  AND I'm going to do as much grantwriting for science-y types as I can while I'm here, because that's my plan B.

Academe is heading for a pretty fundamental shake-up in the next 20 years, wouldn't you say? 

[ucprof]

It's not just the MLA fields.  Word on the street (from administrators in the major prof society) is that new academic job advertisements are at around 40% of what they typically are in my STEM field, i.e. a 60% reduction from normal.  At the UC it is at best 10% of normal (90% reduction).  So this seems to be a cross the board problem for all disciplines rather than just the MLA related stuff.  That said, the feds are still hiring as far as I know in STEM fields, but they may slow down as well if only because they have made so many hires recently.

[this_is_my_username]

 I've been seeing the same thing in my particular social science. Ditto on the retirement part. Many of us have been promised a wave of retirements and sparkling new jobs- but there will be no such thing. Now we await a wave of die-offs, with only a slim chance those positions will actually get advertised.

 My field is easily down 40-50% from just a few years ago, and the folks getting TT jobs are already well established people, not new Ph.Ds or ABDs. There are a ton of adjunct pools being advertised. You know, the type that wants 5 refs up front, detailed syllabi, official transcripts, etc. for a job across a continent and a non-livable wage.

 And the private sector is no better. There is going to be years' worth of young Ph.D.s essentially shut out from their profession almost entirely. And not like the usual survival of the fittest, I mean like 70-80% of newly minted Ph.D.s just completely out of the practice and trying to publish up in mom's basement. The stubborn ones might adjunct for a couple years.
 
 From a job seeker's perspective, it's a profound crisis. I've heard that tough times will make the applicants better, since they'll publish up, compete for more grants, etc. Problem is, I also imagine that journals and presses could get watered down with lots sub-par papers rushed out in panic, and the whole discipline suffers as a result.

 Meanwhile, more and more students are flocking to schools, and many are busting at the seams. I suppose something's got to give, but I'm not holding my breath.

[thehighking]

ince they'll publish up, compete for more grants, etc. Problem is, I also imagine that journals and presses could get watered down with lots sub-par papers rushed out in panic, and the whole discipline suffers as a result.

This would seem to imply that this *already* is not the case...

[this_is_my_username]

ince they'll publish up, compete for more grants, etc. Problem is, I also imagine that journals and presses could get watered down with lots sub-par papers rushed out in panic, and the whole discipline suffers as a result.

This would seem to imply that this *already* is not the case...

 This is pretty much accurate so far. I haven't seen a drop-off in quality in the journals I read, but there's also a big lag between submission and publication for a lot of them.

[abdbcb]

Could it not result in the opposite effect, that with so many submissions journals can raise the bar?
For what it is worth, there are more jobs in my CAA sub-field this year than in recent memory, I sent out 30% more apps this year than last, and friends who have been on or monitoring the market for the past decade are surprised at how many openings there are. Could be random, or could be that some are in professional schools that are anticipating increased enrollment.

[locutus]

There is going to be years' worth of young Ph.D.s essentially shut out from their profession almost entirely. And not like the usual survival of the fittest, I mean like 70-80% of newly minted Ph.D.s just completely out of the practice and trying to publish up in mom's basement. The stubborn ones might adjunct for a couple years.

Hopefully things aren't quite that bad in my field. I haven't looked at the job boards because I'm not not the market this year and even just a peek out of curiosity might leave me horrified. I'm in a field where the number of PhDs who get TT jobs straight out has been slowly decreasing while number who get postdocs first has been increasing. I'm wondering if this will just hasten the inevitable transition to a "postdoc required" field.

[categorical]

If we were French, we'd strike. 

[firstgeneration]

I'm in a field where the number of PhDs who get TT jobs straight out has been slowly decreasing while number who get postdocs first has been increasing. I'm wondering if this will just hasten the inevitable transition to a "postdoc required" field.

In my field, it's much more difficult to get a postdoc than to get a non-R1 TT job out of school.  According to the wiki, the number of postdoc applications this fall has gone beyond astronomical to frightening.

[larryc]

I also imagine that journals and presses could get watered down with lots sub-par papers rushed out in panic, and the whole discipline suffers as a result.

...and at the same time academic presses are contracting and disappearing right and left, making it harder and harder to publish the peer-reviewed scholarship you need to get 1) a job and 2) tenure.

Grim grim grim.

[hyperbole]

Quality of journal articles is always subjective. The very best journals in my lit field regularly publish essays by stars whose writing--if you asked average professors--is just jargon-laden nonsense. My guess is that this recession has already had its effect on journals, but not one that the reader will be able to quickly discern based solely on the contents.

[embitteredhistorian]

This was the first thing I read when I got up this morning.  Very depressing, especially when combined with a mild hangover.

I am going to write the s***tiest dissertation I can possibly write and get the hell out of here.  AND I'm going to do as much grantwriting for science-y types as I can while I'm here, because that's my plan B.

Academe is heading for a pretty fundamental shake-up in the next 20 years, wouldn't you say? 

I'd like to hear comparisons to the early 80s, when there was (if I've been told correctly) a similar decline in jobs.

hyperbole: I think that the recession is going to cause a decline in lit. theory in general, just as 9/11 seemed to make deconstructionism suddenly very uncool.

[lerasmus]

Could it not result in the opposite effect, that with so many submissions journals can raise the bar?

Why would a flood of sub-par submissions "raise the bar" over the current level? My gut feeling is that the percentage of accepted submissions will drop for some journals, but the quality of what is published will remain the same.

[mad_doctor]

Newsflash - it's not just humanities.  I've had former colleagues from my last three institutions email me about whether there are jobs at QBSU, and whether I would advocate for them if there were.  My other colleagues are getting the same kind of emails.  Add it all up, and it's not a pretty picture all across the board.

mad_doctor's $0.02: If you have a job, be thankful, and most of all be productive.  If you don't have a job, don't take it personally.