Fugly. Worse than anyone's seen it for years, unless you like being an adjunct.
Just by observation, and focused more on public than private universities, there's a time lag between the recovery of the economy and univerisities hiring and holding regular staff. They get by with higher adjunct-to-T/T staff ratios. At least in the humanities and social sciences.
The lag was long after the 1990-91 recession, taking until the end of the decade to fully recover. In that case, it was retiring profs who weren't being replaced. In the public sector, that freeze on replacement was compounded by the new emphasis on reducing budget deficits at the time. I have the impression that in the private sector, volatility was much higher (stronger and quicker reactions in hiring and terminating staff).
This recession is a lot deeper, and it will take longer to get out of it. The availability of adjuncts means that the universities can cope with the increased demand for educational services that typifies a recession (Out of work? Get a degree!) without hiring the proper way:
Well, my university is unduly proud that during the last "hard times," they cut TT faculty without laying them off. They just didn't replace them. If some of our elder faculty retire, I believe we will lose some lines to attrition. But I truly hope I am wrong. And I may well be.
The sad thing is, the administrators making these decisions are either being rewarded for "consolidating the budget" or are the hatchet people for the people who do benefit and want to see the restrictions happen. I think it will be just that much more in our faces in the years to come that education is a business. It's not exactly that the good T/T jobs can be outsourced to the lowest geographical bidder. The competition is already there.
It will take us at least a decade to recover economically from the current recession, if we regain growth next year. The only real hope for the university system is if the public sector pushes money with strings attached, for economic stimulus.
