Honestly, I think in many programs, your grad GPA will matter far more than your undergrad. Good luck!
This is kind of what I am counting on, but it is such a crap shoot anyway. At Michigan they get around 400 applications a year for 20-25 spots. You would think that 1/2 of the applicants are perfectly qualified for acceptance, so I would imagine that more than 150 perfectly qualified appicants don't get in every year.
Tis true. And there's an arbitrary element to the selection as well - our cohort was told that for every one of us that was admitted, 15 were turned away. Many of those were technically "qualified", but they also looked at assembling a cohort that reflected diverse research interests, etc. So there's some "picking and choosing" going on, even among the qualified - in other words, being qualified won't guarantee acceptance. Kinda sad, but there it is.