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Author Topic: Talking about Iran  (Read 56719 times)
daurousseau
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« Reply #225 on: January 20, 2008, 03:21:23 PM »

Nuking Jerusalem and Mecca would solve a lot of problems.

And create more. How about the more modest course of cutting off all aid to and military commerce with Israel and the rest of the Middle Eastern countries?
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jonesey
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« Reply #226 on: January 20, 2008, 06:32:18 PM »

Nuking Jerusalem and Mecca would solve a lot of problems.

And create more. How about the more modest course of cutting off all aid to and military commerce with Israel and the rest of the Middle Eastern countries?

Because it wouldn't be long before several Islamic countries would try to wipe Israel out if we did that, for starters...
« Last Edit: January 20, 2008, 06:32:39 PM by jonesey » Logged

Jonesey, I know you're a being of sensitivity and refinement.
aardvark
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« Reply #227 on: March 15, 2008, 03:54:28 AM »

Nuking Jerusalem and Mecca would solve a lot of problems.

And create more. How about the more modest course of cutting off all aid to and military commerce with Israel and the rest of the Middle Eastern countries?

Because it wouldn't be long before several Islamic countries would try to wipe Israel out if we did that, for starters...

Several?

I'm guessing that there aren't really that many who could and would take on Israel at this exact moment.  Who do you have in mind?  I think we can rule out (for different reasons) Turkey, Iraq, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Egypt, and Pakistan.  So who is it, among the Islamic countries, that would  try to wipe out Israel (that Israel couldn't take)?

ps-- I like Israel's odds against Syria or Iran.
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solly
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« Reply #228 on: March 15, 2008, 01:08:41 PM »

How significant is Fallon's resignation?
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jonesey
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« Reply #229 on: March 15, 2008, 01:11:43 PM »

How significant is Fallon's resignation?

He was the first Navy officer to command CENTCOM and, as such, had a much broader, strategic (some would say "real world") view of the area.  He also thought that the Administration's sabre-rattling was bullsh*t.  Unfortunatly, he said so in an interview published in Esquire magazine.

The person most likely to take over CENTCOM is a Lieutenant General who co-ran the Multi-National Force in Iraq with General Patraeous.  I'm not sure how "hawkish" he is, but the Army is making a play to have all of the DoD's major commands run by Army leaders.  Take that as you will.
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solly
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« Reply #230 on: March 15, 2008, 02:24:27 PM »

The reason I ask is I received this from an old friend who is now in his eighties, a retired, once high ranking U.S. Navy career officer.

"We have long wondered, and conjectured, the "why" of the Liberty incident, as it has become known and referred to; "incident" being an easier event to push onto the back burner and forget while it simmers away harmlessly, unlikely to boil over and burn the stew.
 
It was obvious that the Israelis knew at the time what they were doing, who they were attacking and, long ago, I found sufficient evidence myself, to prove it to my satisfaction at least, in my subsequent discussions over beer years later with the Commander of the Torpedo Boat Squadron who led the attack and whose boat fired the torpedo which hit Liberty, Admiral Yomi Barkai, IDF (Navy) Retired, when his answer to the question was, "Of course we did.  What the f*ck, you don't think we were amateurs do you?"  Yomi went on to become the Chief of the Israeli Defense Forces Navy, largely because of his excellent service in Motor Torpedo Boats, his program which developed the IDF fast MTB missile weapons systems, and his combat record in attacking USS Liberty.
 
Phil Tourney, who was on USS Liberty and is obviously an interested, but definitely not objective, observer or commentator in Liberty matters, postulates a very reasonable and credible answer to "why" Liberty was attacked.
 
""Black Flag," in furtherance of international political intrigues, in which one ship in the US Navy and its crew, were selected and set-up for sacrifice to US/Israeli International intervention objectives and political ambitions."
 
I don't know where Tourney got his information and he does not cite his sources.  If you want to know, you can ask him or dig into it yourselves.
 
But, his "black Flag" thesis is the only credible one I have heard of in fifty-one years!
 
What I am asking here is not whether the tactically unwise and unusually heavy concentration of US Navy battle groups as sitting ducks in the Persian Gulf,  which no right thinking Admiral would tolerate in times of war or battle, is a set-up designed and intended to provide a few sacrificial goats to an Iranian attack which will justify nuking hell out of Iran, because it is quite obvious the reason why they are there, massed as a convenient target.  Nice little sitting ducks, like those little steel ducks on the endless chain which marched across the back of the range in those .22 cal target shooting galleries which used to accompany traveling Carnivals which came to town in the spring and fall back in the Homeland.
 
What I am suggesting is, what if the Iranians, who are not fools, do not bite?
 
What then? 
 
We have wasted a lot of fuel, ship, aircraft and man time in a futile decoy operation which attracted no shooters.  No attack... equals no justification to blow Iran all the way back to beyond the stone age.
 
So, what do we do?
 
Hey, why not run the old USS Liberty Op through again?
 
Attacking an Aircraft Carrier Assault Group, backed up with one or two more of the same might sound intimidating, and it is certainly a dangerous undertaking.  But, the more ships involved, the more targets.  And, in a black flag operation such as this, you don't actually have to score or sink anyone.  All you have to do is make the attack, and disguise the identity of the attackers, permitting the blame to fall on the obvious and, before anyone can ask too many questions, nuke the hell out of them which will destroy any evidence to the fact that it might not have been them in the first place.
 
It will not require many assets on the part of the IDF Air Forces.  A couple of aircraft, launching air to ship missile ordnance from 'way out, will be well on the way home before they detonate and, as I said, even if they do not score, the damage is done. 
 
And, if the IDF will consent to the sacrifice of a couple of planes (which we will replace) and a couple of pilots (what the hell, it's their war, let them contribute) we will not even have to defend a recall of defense aircraft sent out to "get the f*ckers who did this," and at the same time it will destroy any evidence of who did it, and  the pilots sent out to get them will be certain to testify to the Iranian markings they saw on the attacking aircraft. 
 
The IDF pilots do not have to be briefed on the entire operation, and it will probably suffice to assure them that any planes launched to go after them will be recalled as happened the last time.
 
And, unlike, Yomi Barkai, they will not be around to discuss the operation twenty-four years later with another sailor sitting in a Trinidad Yacht Club bar.
 
The more I think about it, the more it becomes apparent that this is not a question of "if" any longer.  It is merely a question of "when."
 
When? 
 
When the time is ripe.... You will first hear about it from the puckered, offended and offensive lips of the Chimp-in-Chief himself... "This morning, a dastardly attack.... I have already ordered.... and even as I speak, the Capitol City of Tehran has just ceased to exist...." etc.
 
Bill Fallon was pushed to resign.  Were they afraid that an Admiral of the Navy who had been a career-long embarrassing-question asker might not sign on to such a ploy?  That he might have objected to the sacrifice of his own men which some of his earlier predecessors, a former SecDef and CinC could stomach?"

It's drawing a long bow but does it stretch credibility further than the sham cassus belli of the Iraq war?

The source, incidentally,  is someone for whom I have the greatest respect, not usually given to far-out conspiracy theories.
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jonesey
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« Reply #231 on: July 08, 2008, 11:14:58 AM »

In this week's New Yorker, an excellent article by Seymore Hirsch on how the Bush Administration is preparing the battlefield in Iran for a future war against that country:

Preparing the Battlefield: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran.
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daurousseau
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« Reply #232 on: July 08, 2008, 01:53:04 PM »

In this week's New Yorker, an excellent article by Seymore Hirsch on how the Bush Administration is preparing the battlefield in Iran for a future war against that country:

Preparing the Battlefield: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran.

And as you might expect, everything he reports was reported earlier in the Spring, and more clearly, by Alexander Cockburn at counterpunch.org.
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solly
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« Reply #233 on: June 18, 2009, 12:12:24 AM »

Iran seems to be on everyone's lips at the moment so I thought I'd revive this thread. Most of the debate on other blogs is brain challenged. Some informed comment would be enlightening.

This is from the Guardian
Quote
Wishful thinking from Tehran

Since the revolution, academics and pundits have predicted the collapse of the Iranian regime. This week, they did no better

I have been in Iran for exactly one week covering the 2009 Iranian election carnival. Since I arrived, few here doubted that the incumbent firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad would win. My airport cab driver reminded me that the president had visited every province twice in the last four years – "Iran isn't Tehran," he said. Even when I asked Mousavi supporters if their man could really carry more than capital, their responses were filled with an Obamasque provisional optimism – "Yes we can", "I hope so", "If you vote." So the question occupying the international media, "How did Mousavi lose?" seems to be less a problem of the Iranian election commission and more a matter of bad perception rooted in the stubborn refusal to understand the role of religion in Iran.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/13/iranian-election
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parispundit
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« Reply #234 on: June 18, 2009, 01:22:16 AM »

And you think this article was not written by the brain dead? For some reason, the Guardian has decided Ahmedinajad represent the progressive force of anti-capitalism and the anti-West, and has pushed a very bad poll by Doherty (see Nate Silver's critique of it at fivethirtyeight.com) and now this. This ain't just a Teheran or middle class movement, as anyone who reads the NY Times Lede reports knows, or as I have heard from a friend who recently came back from Ispahan. Are those against A. liberal secular democrats? No. But they are friends of freedom
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solly
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« Reply #235 on: June 18, 2009, 06:38:00 PM »

Thanks for that parispundit.

I remain impressed by the Ballen/Dougherty poll and find Silver's analysis difficult to follow. He seems to rely on a number of imponderables. Statistics is not my field but the elegant simplicity of this comment:

Quote
Nate Silver had done an unexpectedly poor job of analyzing the TFT numbers.
Let's call the None+Refused+Don't Know responses Unknown. They total 50.05%. The vote turnout was 85%. So, let's subtract the 15% from the Unknown, and rescale. Now we have:
39.7% Ahmadinejad
16.0% Mousavi
2.0% Karroubi
1.1% Rezai
41.2% Unknown
If we now in our glorious ignorance distribute the Unknown equally between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi we get:
60.3% Ahmadinejad
36.6% Mousavi
3.1% Others
This is close to the publicized vote.

.....appeals.

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