A) THE BIG PICTURE

1) The American Republic is almost unique in it's respect for individual rights. This is not jingoism, but objective observation. In 3000 years of history, the vast majority of humanity has lived in poverty, often in slavery, under the command of wealthy, oppressive oligarchies. The great massacres and genocides of history have been performed by organized governments. In much of the world today, people live under despotic regimes. At the time of our Revolution, western Europe was ruled by oppressive aristocracies. Europe has developed republics largely because of American influence. In the 1940s, Nazi Germany massacred 6 million of her citizens, Vichy France turned over thousands of her own citizens to Nazi Germany, and wealthy Victorian England allowed 100,000 Irish people die of starvation.

2) Our good fortune is partially a result of geography but also due to the thought that the Founding Fathers gave to history -- specifically, their attempt to implement Polybius's checks and balances with modifications. Admittedly, large groups did not benefit for the first 100 years -- the AmerIndians and Afro-Americans , for example. 3) We must have a strong respect for historical truth for practical reasons --history is what gives us empirical evidence of the long term effects of political structures. History warns us of how disaster creep upon a people via policy mistakes.

4) There are three possible threats to liberty and the Constitution: foreign attack, internal insurrection intended to overthrow the Constitution, and a military coup within the Executive Branch (which controls the military and police power of the federal government.) The Constitution provides for an Executive Branch strong enough to defeat the first two threats but provides the means for Congress to forestall the third. In the first 100 years, the primary threats were foreign attack with some small amount of internal insurrections in Shay's Rebellion and the Whisky Rebellion. (The Civil War is a complex issue that I won't discuss unless someone requests it.) Leaving aside the Civil War, the one instance I can recall of the Executive Branch becoming dangerous in the 1800s was the Federalist Sedition Act and the overthrow of the Federalists by Jefferson's Democratic-Republicans. As I recall, the militias of Virginia and Maryland were on alert in the event any attempt was made by the Adams administration to block Jefferson's inauguration.

B) THE CONCERN

5) I would argue that the greatest danger to the Constitution over the next 100 years is the Executive Branch shaking off Constitution constraints at the urging of some strong faction. The pattern I see is that which led to the overthrow of the Roman Republic:

a)A prolonged competition between to strong powers has resulted in the collapse of one and the unrivaled ascent of the other,

b)the wealthy class of the victor using the large amount of surplus military power for an imperialistic expansion abroad and creation of a global empire,

c)the middle class being impovished by the influx of cheap foreign products and labor

d) , wealth and power becoming increasingly concentrated.

e) defeat of a populist Reform party ( Gracchi brothers -Ross Perot),

f) replacement of a citizens army by a large professional army recruited from the poor with long-term enlistments and containing few members of the middle class (Marius reforms circa 107 BC -US professional army established in 1970s),

g) increasing bitter competition for ultimate power between two major factions with use of the judicial process to attack political opponents,

h) disillusionment and loss of support for the republic among the large mass of lower-class citizens (low percentage of voter participation in the US elections.),

i) a large percentage of wealth becoming concentrated in a small group who will support oppressive police measures to protect their wealth from social unrest/turmoil in the event of an economic depression (Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that about 8% of US households now own 53% of US wealth).

6) Finally, recall that the Roman Republic's government was not adequate to governing it's Mediterranean empire. A large issue ignored by today's globalization advocates is that commerce collapes at some level unless it is supported by a corresponding governmental structure to resolve disputes. A major hegemonic power, like the British Empire, can maintain global trade for a while but tends to collapse when it's large military advantage is undermined by the technology outflows of global trade. (As happened in 1929 with the waning of the British Empire, gravely weakened by the cost of World War I -- ironic when one remembers that the City of London financed the industralization of Germany in the latter 1800s.) Christopher Chase-Dunn of John Hopkins had suggested that the 2020s will have a high risk of nuclear war between the USA and an ascending rival -- e.g., the European Union or China. A dispute over the huge Caspian Sea oil deposits could bring on conflict sooner.

7) Paul Kennedy, in the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, has noted that nations cannot sustain the cost of the military power needed to support global empires. The September 11 attack, provoked by the undisclosed foreign actions of US corporations and their supporters in the US government, has given the government a pretext for a massive defense buildup -- the unbounded "war on terrorism" -- to protect global trade and the foreign investments of America's wealthy. The costs of this military initiative is being supported by heavy borrowing from the government Trust Funds for baby boomer retirement (Social Security,etc.)

8) The problem is that this policy is not sustainable. The Feb 2001 Presidential Budget projected that by 2011, government Trust Funds (Social Security, Medicare,etc.) would be holding $6 Trillion in IOUs , up from $2 Trillion today. These IOUS are not "real assets" according to Economic Advisor Lawrence Lindsey. He is correct -- the government won't be able to replay them to us (as Social Security checks in 2011-2030) unless the government first takes the money from us (via 70% tax rates on 401K/IRA withdrawals). The latest budget, released a few weeks ago, no longer projects out to 10 years, as has been customary. It's projections now show a federal debt in 2007 that is $2 Trillion higher than what was projected only a year ago.

C) CONSTITUTIONAL CHECKS AND BALANCES

9) The image of gun owners forming a mob to overthrow legal government is a smear and strawman put out by gun control advocates like Michael Bellesiles. The purpose of the militia is to protect the Congress from unlawful coercion by the Executive Branch and to ensure elections are held. (The military's oath to the Constitution, not to the President, is another safeguard -- although I believe this oath was broken by about 16 high-level military and CIA officers in the Iran-Contra affair. )

10) In a republic, the Congress,as representatives of the supreme authority of the People, is the ultimate authority. The Congress has the power to remove the President, Executive officials, and federal judges from power via impeachment--the reverse is not true. The Constitution gives Congress the power to control who commands the militia -- the President (to suppress an insurrection) or the state governors (to deal with a Presidental faction who ignores a Congressional impeachment.) As Madison noted in Federalist 46, any movement by armed Americans to check the Executive would be led and regulated by state governments.

11) Congress is also protected by the fact that it rules the District of Columbia-- created after Congress was chased out of Philadelphia by Continental Army soldiers angry over lack of pay. Congress's bodyguard is the Capitol Police and militia of the District. The Capitol Police did not show well on September 11. The President and the Executive Branch succession were immediately secured at secret, heavily fortified facilities (probably Mount Weather, Virginia and Raven Rock, PA). By contrast, the majority of Congress was wandering around Capitol Hill like chickens six hours after the attacks -- easily prey to even a small terrorist group.

12) It was obvious that the Executive Branch's secret plan for "Continuity of Government" -- it's "shadow government" -- only provided for the continuity of the Executive Branch. Certain laws passed during the Cold War give the Executive Branch enormous power in a national emergency. Such power is supposed to be overseen by Congress and the Supreme Court -- but the Checks and Balances don't work if Congress is destroyed or dispersed. Some Congressional leaders got a taste of this idea on the evening of September 11 -- when Vice President Cheney overruled their request to return to Washington. When Senator Nichols protested that Congress was not subject to Cheney's control --that Congress is a separate branch of government -- Vice President Cheney noted "Don, we control the helicopters."

(See http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A42754-2002Jan26 ) The head of the Capitol Police has since resigned.

13) By federal law, the "militia" is all males 17-44 years old who are not members of the federal military plus female members of the National Guard. The National Guard is only a small part. (See US Code, Title 10, Section 311 at http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/10/311.html ) Congress could shrink the National Guard , or Guard units in any state, down to nothing -- a concern at the Constitutional Convention. Per the Second Amendment, any particular Congress cannot destroy or disarm the "unorganized militia" -- just as it cannot destroy the right to free speech, assembly, free press,etc. -- because if it could do so it would endanger the survival of the Constitution and the election of future Congresses.

14) In the event of a power struggle between the Executive Branch and Congress/States/People, the National Guard is roughly comparable to the Active Army combat units (not totally -- I would guess the power division is 35%-65%). Unlike the National Guard, The Army Reserves are not combat units --they handle "combat service support" -- laying bridges/roads/telephone lines , hauling supplies,logistics,etc -- although Reserve members obviously have military training and can shoot M16s.

The Air Force is countered by the Air National Guard -- as late as 1993, the Air National Guard held 95% of the fighter interceptors in the continental US.

The Marines are interesting -- the Posse Comitatus Act which prohibits use of federal military forces in domestic law enforcement only explicitly specifies the Air Force and Army.

The federal police (FBI,etc.) is countered by the large number of local and state police forces. Ultimately, the issue is decided by the support that 270 Million Americans, holding 200 million unregistered firearms, give to their Congress -- which is as it should be.

The militia is NOT a states right issue -- the Constitution expressly prohibits the States from having military forces not approved by the Congress. The "collective rights" interpretation of the Second Amendment ignores the fact the the Constitution clearly distinguishes between the "People" and the "States" -- see the Ninth and Tenth Amendments.

-- Don Williams, MS, Computer Science (posted 3/13, 3:00 p.m., U.S. Eastern time)

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