When Bruce A. Reinig lived in Hong Kong in the late 90s, he was surprised by the amount of pirated software he saw in the streets each day.
Conventional wisdom says that developing countries are havens for the most pirated software, but Hong Kong is anything but a poor nation.
“It didn’t seem like it should be there,” says Mr. Reinig, chair of the department of information and decision systems at San Diego State University’s College of Business Administration.
Mr. Reinig was intrigued enough by his finding to start investigating what made some countries more hospitable to pirated software than others. It’s a valuable question: A joint 2010 report by the Business Software Alliance, an information-technology trade group, and International Data Corporation suggests that the rate of piracy is on the rise and that the value of all pirated software in 2009 exceeded $50-billion.
Working with Robert K. Plice, a colleague at San Diego State, Mr. Reinig looked at three factors to determine their relationship to software piracy rates: personal income, corruption, and the relative size of a country’s information-technology industry.
Their study, whose results are presented in the most recent issue of the International Journal of Social and Organizational Dynamics in IT, found, not surprisingly, that personal income is the biggest factor in piracy rates. But it goes only so far. A $1,000 increase to an income below $10,000, for example, yields a far greater reduction in the software-piracy rate than a $1,000 increase to an income above $20,000.
The study, which examined 62 countries, found the importance of the two other factors differed based on whether a country already had a large IT industry. In countries with a relatively small IT industry, a decrease in corruption had a bigger impact on reducing piracy. But in countries with a strong IT industry, further increasing the size of the IT industry had a bigger impact on the practice than did reducing corruption. Corruption was measured by Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, a survey that tracks the perceived level of abuses of power by public officials in many countries.
Mr. Reinig wasn’t sure exactly why that might be the case but speculated that earlier investments in the IT industry could suggest less corruption in the first place or that the industry had figured out how to take care of the problem.
But their study didn’t explain the country that led Mr. Reinig to the topic in the first place. Hong Kong was one of a handful of countries that didn’t fit the model, with a higher piracy rate—47 percent in 2009, according to the Business Software Alliance study—than the other factors would suggest it should have. The San Diego State professor says he’s now studying those outliers to try to understand what sets them apart and hopes to present his findings soon.
The 15 Nations With the Highest Piracy Rates in 2009
(BSA/IDC 2009 Piracy Study)
- Georgia – 95%
- Zimbabwe – 92%
- Bangladesh – 91%
- Moldova – 91%
- Armenia – 90%
- Yemen – 90%
- Sri Lanka – 89%
- Azerbaijan – 88%
- Libya – 88%
- Belarus – 87%
- Venezuela – 87%
- Indonesia – 86%
- Iraq – 85%
- Ukraine – 85%
- Vietnam – 85%



