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Science Foundation Finds No Misconduct by Climate Researcher

August 23, 2011, 8:35 am

The inspector general’s office at the National Science Foundation has found no evidence to support scientific-misconduct and other allegations against Michael E. Mann, the Pennsylvania State University climate researcher whose oft-investigated findings have led to a hot political debate over global warming. In a “closeout memorandum” released without fanfare last week, the agency said it could find no indication that Mr. Mann had “falsified or fabricated any data and no evidence that his actions amounted to research misconduct.” It noted that there had been “several concerns raised about the quality of the statistical analysis techniques” he used, but concluded: “These concerns are all appropriate for scientific debate and to assist the research community in directing future research efforts to improve understanding in this field of research. Such scientific debate is ongoing but does not, in itself, constitute evidence of research misconduct.” The memo comes as Virginia’s attorney general and conservative groups continue separate efforts to force the University of Virginia, Mr. Mann’s former employer, to release more than a decade’s worth of Mr. Mann’s e-mails to other researchers, graduate students, faculty colleagues, and others.

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  • rab60

    This is no surprise, but Gov. Perry is going to be sorry to read this – not that it will change his mind.

  • raymond_j_ritchie

    Perhaps now the University of Virginia will develop a backbone and tell the Virginia Attorney-general that they were refusing to comply with his demands no matter what. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/ewisnia Elizabeth Wisnia

    Seriously. In addition to an overwhelming body of research that supports the concept that global warming is happenning…just read the news! Floods, famine, tornadoes, earthquakes, torrential rainfall, heat waves…What else has to happen before the skewering of scientists for simply reporting the facts stops?

  • thedoctorisin

    So in other words, we are just supposed to overlook “several concerns raised about the quality of the statistical analysis techniques”?  

  • dank48

    Indeed. To fail to overlook these concerns would probably be unmannerly conduct unbefitting proper ladies and gentlemen.

    Another Tom Sawyer special.
     

  • mememine

    Studying worst case scenarios isn’t a crime.

    Studying the effects instead of the causes of a climate
    crisis that hasn’t happened isn’t a crime.

    Being a lab coat consultant and calling yourself a saintly
    scientist isn’t a crime.

    Hyperbole isn’t a crime?

    Exploitation isn’t a crime?

    Being paid to have a conclusion isn’t a crime?

    Condemning billions of children to a CO2 demise just to get
    them to turn the lights out more often isn’t a crime?

    Climate Blame wasn’t a lie or a hoax. It was thankfully, a
    tragic exaggeration.

  • megginson

    (This was intended to be a reply to thedoctorisin, but ended up as an original post instead because I pushed the wrong button.)

    No, we don’t just overlook it, we settle it rather than just let it rattle around the echo chamber. The National Academy of Sciences was asked to do the settling, and in 2006 issued a report concluding that there were places that the statistics in the Mann-Bradley-Hughes (MBH) paper could have been done better (hence the NSF qualification in its closeout report), but that:
     
    “The basic conclusion of Mann et al. was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on ice caps and the retreat of glaciers around the world, which in many cases appear to be unprecedented during at least the last 2,000 years.”
     
    The NAS’s concerns about the statistical analysis were about such matters as using linear regression models for approximations where it was not clear that they were the best model, and not accounting for some matters that could have widened some of the error bars. Another careful analysis done at about the same time concluded that all of this could have called the MBH results into question by something like a twentieth of a degree. (!) Subsequent studies done with different methods and bigger proxy data sets confirm the message of the MBH paper. Such is the way science is supposed to work.
     
    As to how science is *not* supposed to work: For the record, concerning the paper by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick (Mc-Mc) that originally called into question the statistical analysis in MBH – I’ve heard folks say that Mc-Mc got it right and MBH got it wrong, but in fact it was the NAS study that accurately analyzed the problems that existed. Mc-Mc was itself deeply flawed. The editor of the journal that published it (Energy & Environment), admitted that it was not peer-reviewed as scientists understand the meaning of that term, but rushed to publication for “policy impact reasons, e.g. publication well before COP9 [the ninth Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change]….” She also added that the “paper was amended until the very last moment. There was a trade off in favour of policy.” And furthermore, “I’m following my political agenda – a bit anyway…. But isn’t that the right of an editor?” The answer to that last question would be, uh, no. (See pp. 54-55 of Ray Bradley’s new book “Global Warming and Political Intimidation”.)
     
    Also for the record: McKitrick later co-authored another paper, this time with Patrick Michaels (“A Test of Corrections for Extraneous Signals in Gridded Surface Temperature”, Climate Research 26(2):159-173, 2004), that essentially attempted to resurrect the long-debunked urban heat island theory that global temperatures have been miscomputed and significant warming is not really happening. Michaels characterized this as one of the most thoroughly peer-reviewed papers in the history of science. Unfortunately, it contained what amounted to a repeated high school trig error, putting degrees into certain functions that were expecting input in radians, which invalidated essentially every computation in the paper, and in big ways. This was not a problem of a twentieth of a degree.