On December 14, The New York Times published a lead editorial making the obvious point that, while getting more people to go to college is a good idea, it’s not enough by itself to reverse or to combat the consequences of the great economic inequality in the United States. Wanting, presumably, to juice up a rather bland argument, an editorial writer carelessly decided to drop in a misleading comparison: “Recent college graduates have about the same level of unemployment as the general population.”
This accurate little statement sidesteps the obvious facts that recent college graduates are a lot younger than the general population, and that younger members of the labor force have higher unemployment rates than older ones, largely because of lesser experience. When you compare people of similar ages, you find that those with more education uniformly have lower unemployment rates than those with less. When you do the most illuminating comparison, which is to compare the college-graduate population to the non-college-graduate population, you find that the unemployment rate for the college-graduate group is roughly half that of the others. (Comparing college graduates to the total population involves comparing college graduates to themselves.)
Moreover, many recent college graduates are looking for their first real job. Even comparing them to non-college-graduates of the same age means comparing them to people who have already been in the labor market for several years—many of whom entered the labor market before the economy collapsed. A comparison to recent high-school graduates entering the labor market now would be more enlightening.
Unfortunately, this careless and misleading sentence in the Times will have consequences. We have every confidence that some of those critics who seem to have adopted as a life goal talking other people’s children out of going to college will run with this sentence, and use it as evidence that even the liberal New York Times agrees with them that college doesn’t pay.
4 Responses to How to Mislead Without Really Trying
sisgett - December 15, 2010 at 9:26 am
I believe you hit the nail squarely on the head.
director19 - December 15, 2010 at 9:47 am
zactly!
The N.Y.Times, once a journalistic masterpiece, is about as low as the Green Sheet. But then again, I hate to disparage the Green Sheet. The “Times” has published so much drivel over the past number of years, that it will soon see it’s own demise.
Unfortunately for the newspaper I grew up reading every day, the real journalists have left the building. The lights will be off soon.
For shame!
mbelvadi - December 16, 2010 at 6:55 am
Your first two paras are dead on, but you go wrong with the argument in the third. The opportunity cost of spending all those years paying out money instead of earning and moving forward in a career it is exactly part of the financial tradeoff that real people face when making the decision to go to college, not a mistake in the argument to be ignored. I know of one immigrant father of a high school senior, who when told he should be encouraging his son to go to college, replied that for the $50K or so that college would cost, he could buy a motel franchise for him (the same business the father was in, so the family expertise would be available) and have the son immediately set up in a lifetime’s source of a good middle class income. After 4 years getting a degree in who knows what, what assurances are there the son would be able to earn at least as well as he would with the motel, or ever catch up the lost income and costs for those years? It’s a pretty tough argument to refute, especially if the son wasn’t showing signs of interest in one of the more lucrative professional/science fields.
11223140 - December 16, 2010 at 11:00 am
mbelvadi — While you are correct to suggest that the opportunity costs of attending higher education need to be seriously considered, the antecdotal example you offer instead would seem the exception that proves the rule. Not sure if I am the young man in question that a $50K “purchase” of a hotel franchise would necessarily equate to a lifetime of middle class earning power. 50K does not buy you much of a hotel business, unless you are renting the rooms by the hour.