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An Open Letter to John Kline and Virginia Foxx

May 2, 2011, 11:41 am

John Kline and Virginia Foxx chair the House of Representatives’ Education and Workforce committee and its higher-education subcommittee, respectively. They have expressed a desire to look at some issues of importance to the higher-education community. Along with some other researchers and heads of higher-education-related organizations, I met with staffers for these members of Congress recently and suggested some ideas for hearings. I have heard no followup, so have decided to take the issue public, by suggesting one modest but specific reform that could provide enormously valuable information affecting how we spend billions of dollars of federal higher-education money.

Here is my idea: Require the U.S. Department of Education to collect and publish, by institution and for the nation as a whole, data on the academic success of Pell Grant recipients. What is the four-year graduation rate? Six-year graduation rate? Freshman to sophomore retention rate?

That the department keeps tabs on all sorts of things of marginal importance relating to universities, but fails to keep good track of the tens of billions of dollars spent annually on Pell Grant investments, is a scandal. And I think I know WHY they fail to keep graduation-rate statistics on Pell recipients: They are almost certainly embarrassingly, appallingly low. Revealing the statistic would hurt political support for the program.

Why do I think a low proportion of Pell Grant recipients ever graduate, or at least within six years? First, whenever I statistically try to explain variations in graduation rates between schools in a multiple regression model, the percentage of students who are Pell recipients is usually a fairly strong, statistically significant negative indicator—the more Pell recipients, the lower graduation rates.

Second, examination of data from schools with very high proportion of Pell Grants but low graduation rates suggests that even under the most extreme assumptions, it would be virtually impossible for as many as one-half of the Pell recipients to graduate within six years. To be sure, the low graduation rates may not be caused by receipt of a Pell Grant, but rather related to other characteristics of Pell recipients, such as their low-income status and, perhaps more importantly, their mediocre secondary-education performance (in part the consequence of low-quality primary and secondary public schools).

Nonetheless, if we spend over $40-billion annually on Pell Grants, wouldn’t it be interesting to know how much of that is associated with academic success, and how much with academic failure? How many college graduates are there that owe their degrees to Pell Grants? Is that number high or low in relation to the cost of the program? Shouldn’t Reps. Kline and/or Foxx, and others, be asking that question at hearings? Should hearings be held to determine whether it would not be unreasonable to require the Department of Education to provide graduation-rate information of Pell Grant recipients?

The hearing could encompass a broader assessment of the Pell program. Should there be more rigid time limits on the number of grants a single person can receive? Should a student who works hard and graduates in three years be rewarded for his/her diligence, which saves taxpayers funds? Should a student with a very low probability for success, based on low high-school grades, test scores, etc., be given probationary Pell Grants, continued receipt of which is contingent on good academic progress? In short, should there not be some performance standards, as there are for most private forms of higher-education student assistance?

Finally, the number of Pell Grant recipients has exploded. Are we not giving grants to middle-income families who probably would find a way to send their child to school without the grant? Are we not making federal aid an entitlement, at a time where we should be reducing entitlement spending given our enormous federal deficit?

Hold the hearing, Rep. Foxx. I would love to testify.

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unusedusername

Excellent article. I, too, strongly suspect that a large fraction of Pell grant recipients aren’t graduating, and the educrats are withholding the data for political reasons. I would want to see the data discussed above, plus the default rates of students by

1) high school GPA
2) SAT/ACT scores
3) intended college major

I’m willing to bet that there are large differences in these groups, but any attempt to cut costs by strategically giving loans to students that are the most likely to graduate are likely to be met with howls of protests by people who think we are trying to “hold down the lower classes”. No, we are just trying to make sure that the students who go to college are the ones who will get something out of it.
eberg

There are some sound ideas for further tailoring and fine-tuning the Pell Grant program and no doubt the committee could benefit from Mr. Vedder’s testimony.
What troubles me, however, in Vedder’s laser-like focus on disadvantaged Pell recipients is his apparent disregard for the organized looting of public and personal funds by for-profit institutions that misrepresent offers and outcomes, saddle the disadvantaged, the inconvenienced or former military members with enormous debt, confer credentials of uncertain value, and dilute respect for legitimate institutions of higher education. I disagree not with Vedder’s incontestable minor points, but with his priorities.
mbelvadi

If the data shows what you expect it to show, they should also include a survey of why the students failed to graduate. If the reason is a lack of money (the number one reason cited by students in other surveys for dropping out), then this data could be used as evidence to increase, not decrease, funding for the Pell program. Otherwise it would be like doing a study to show that car accident victims who are given blood are less likely to be alive a year later than the average driver, and using that statistic to justify withholding blood transfusions from accident victims.
mr_leech

In 2008 the Virginia Foxx and John Boehner introduced a amendment to the Higher Education Opportunity Act that forbade the US Department of Education from developing a student unit record data system that would answer this question. Might you testify and recommend the repeal of section 134 (a), “Database of Student Information Prohibited”?
adunbar

I agree that such statistics should be available, but graduation rate isn’t a sufficient statistic for determining “success.” I’m not sure what is. I know a young man who dropped out after one class at a local community college. Several years later, he tried again. This time he was ready to commit, and although it is too early to tell if he will graduate, he now is willing to engage in discussions about various issues, and he uses vocabulary that continually surprises me. There is no doubt in my mind that he is growing by leaps and bounds.
prairiechick

The author is correct in one statement – many “middle class” students receive Pell grants, since the grants are dependent upon the cost of education at an institution as well as the income level of the student or his/her family. Knowing that there are very few academic scholarships offered at state institutions compared to the number of students in attendance, it is likely that many more students are eligible for Pell grants than for the few scholarships awarded at most institutions. In addition, many families whose children would be Pell-eligible never fill out the FAFSA form because they have the mistaken belief that the grants are indeed only for “poor people” and therefore do not take advantage of the benefit of this program. I suspect that with the prolonged economic down-turn, even more students have become be Pell-eligible as they drop from “upper middle class” down to simply “middle class”. But you should know that many institutions provide academic scholarships largely to the least economically in need…knowing that wealthy alumni will provide the most return on the institution’s investment in the future…and use the scholarships as much as a means of “bidding power” to obtain wealthy enrollees as to attract bright minds.

If the author aims to reduce the “burden” of taxpayer support of such students by reducing the availability of Pell grants, then I take issue with him. The alternative funding mechanism would be to increase the debt accrual of students overall as they take out more loans to attend college. But if one examines the default rates on students loans, that may not be a very attractive alternative. The result would be a debt-laden young work force, or perhaps a debt-laden aging population if the parents are the ones who absorb the load debt or a large number of job-seekers with poor credit histories. I don’t believe any of those scenarios are more attractive than the current Pell program funding if one views the effects across the entire US population over time.

I do agree that it would be beneficial to track the success rates of Pell recipients, however. But it would be very important to perform multivariate analysis and include factors such as whether they are first-generation college students, since it has been observed that the ability to navigate through the university bureaucracy and know how to finesse additional financial aid or to find a really knowledgeable and helpful academic advisor can be as big a factor in a student’s ability to complete a degree as is their income level or modest performance in high school. Sometimes you have to know how to be a proactive consumer as much as a disciplined academic.

There are no easy answers to these current challenges. There are fewer resources to go around that support and even promote successful completion of any academic training. But I disagree that Pell awards result in “failure” – even exposure to a semester of college can have a lifelong benefit in terms of a person’s ability to understand the world a bit better and succeed in life.
leedav

I agree with greater transparency and accountability, especially in public and government organizations where the public’s resources and tax revenue are being spent.
This is an important part of democracy, and an educated public will improve the democratic system.
lfserpa

In addition to the suggested statistics on Pell Grant recipients, it would be good to compile data on the number of college professors, researchers, doctors, business leaders/owners, etc–successful people in general–who received Pell Grants. I think that number would be high also and, in my opinion, it more than justifies the existence of Pell Grants.
mbelvadi

Are you sure you want to include “business leaders” in that data? Even Wall Street executives? :-)
katisumas

Arent Pell grant recipients required to graduate within 4 years, not six?

Pell grants help lower middle class members, which is not quite fair because families whose income is just a $ too high don’t qualify.

Solution, more Pell Grants instead of less.

Why the attack on student aid? Is is linked with the delusion that teachers’ salaries caused the Great Recession? So now the fault lies with Pell Grants?

If you’re such a fine statistician, why don’t you do the math and tell us why we, who are supposed to be the richest country in the world, no longer can provide an education for our youth, and have to cut down on such programs as WIC that provides nutritious food for pregnant women and babies, including very expensive special formula for those babies needing it to survive.

Your letter has to be seen in that context.
mkt42

Waitaminnit. The 2008 HEOA already DOES require colleges to disclose the graduation rates of their Pell Grant recipients, Federal subsidized loan recipients, and non-recipients of Federal aid. See e.g. http://www.airweb.org/page.asp?page=1601
mr_leech

Please get back to us after the disclosure requirements are slated to be implemented and tell us: (a) how many institutions are in compliance with these requirements; (b) where their disclosures are located; (c) whether these rates are calculated in a way comparable (since no methodology is specified in law or regulation), and (d) whether these disclosures generate any data that can be used for analysis. Predictions? (a) little compliance; (b) disclosures difficult to locate if compliance happens; (c) no comparability in reporting without a standardized methodology (Pell once? Pell always? Pell last term? transfers handled how? and so on….); and (d) disclosure yields aggregate reporting useless for the sort of analysis Vedder and others want to see.
gsudduth

Interdisciplinary doesn’t EVEN want to hear from MFA artists; after being riffed I haven’t gotten much more than a ‘thanks for applying’ if that.
11333651

Your observations are spot on. I advised medical students about their careers for years and was able to draw on experiences from my own life and the lives of other faculty colleague who I knew well. The polished, accomplished professional that stands in front of the lecture hall or at the side of a patient’s bed often took a circuitous, sometimes haphazard, and occasionally calamitous path, and it can be helpful for those who come behind us to realize that good things (can) happen when we don’t achieve our dreams. Like many of life’s great lessons, if we don’t learn this early we get repeated chances later on to learn it!
seannotkelly

I stand (sit, actually) before you, an administrator who emerged out of the professoriate, who emerged out of professional practice, who emerged out of a young man with hair past his shoulders, riding a skateboard, having emerged from a boy who wanted to be an artist (especially dinosaurs and girls).

‘How did I ever get here?’ is a question many of us need to occasionally look around and ask. Especially as the new school term approaches.
http://twitter.com/ajnedd Angie Nedd

I returned to school in my late 30s, certain I wanted to finish my bachelor’s degree in psychology, and then get a PhD to work with veterans experiencing PTSD. I am graduating in December (and will be a first-generation college graduate!) — but not going for a PhD and instead looking at an MA (for several reasons, and psychology is low on the list of programs I am considering.)

My plan was a plan to get me moving in some direction when I was at a fork in the road. I was old enough — or perhaps wise enough? — to realize that it was more important to be moving in some productive direction because, with an education, I would have options and choices I couldn’t even imagine. I admit I got too focused on “the plan,” but got good insight and advice from mentors, teachers, and friends that helped me find a more rewarding and satisfying path.

Thanks for the post!
gloverparker

I too agree that this post offers a very wise perspective for undergrads and grads and certainly for faculty and administrators who worry that they’ve made a big mistake investing much blood, sweat and tears in a profession that has always been competitive and whose career track is frequently fraught with uncertain twists and turns. I’ve been involved in advising grad students at an elite grad school over a decade and also work with unemployed professionals now who have been uprooted by the economic chaos of recent years. Our society rewards the “overdetermined” career plan-much more so than in past eras. This is because we seek to control our professional destinies; we believe that with enough education and skill-building experience, we will realize our career aspirations. Unfortunately, this picture has collapsed for many in the past few years. I believe there is a need for faculty and career advisors to assist students in better preparing for the uncertainties of the current global workforce. To assist them in seeing the necessity of thinking about and planning for alternative ways to fulfill their career goals –and to get at this task early on in their academic program. There is just less space now for students to see collegiate life as a fun and carefree period in which they need not consider their future career plans until their senior year…but then, this has always been true for working class students and those not attending four-year institutions (and who cannot afford to consider grad school).
http://www.facebook.com/jon.kay2 Jon Kay

What a great article for a great scholar! Lynwood has been a mentor for several generations of scholars interested in folklore and regional culture. I had the good pleasure to take an oral history and folklore class with him at WKU. A class that shaped my work as a public humanist.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=8115295 Libby Tucker

A wonderful article about one of our great folklorists! Lynwood Montell’s book “Ghosts along the Cumberland” inspired me to write my own study of college ghostlore.
linzhi

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cp3242

Having worked in admissions for the better part of a decade, I have serious concerns about early action and early decision programs.

1) In talking with high school seniors, I’ve come to realize that most of them do not understand these programs. Those who attend private prep schools often have the benefit of former selective admissions counselors turned college counselors. However, most students remain confused. Each school plays the Early Action/Early Decision game differently, so even when I offer free workshops, I can’t education middle income to low-income kids about a common set of standards.

2) In addition to not understanding the admission policies, many students misunderstand the financial impact of Early Action or Early Decision. What do terms like “loan free” and “need blind” mean? When I explain to students that meeting “100% of demonstrated need” means that they are still responsible for paying or borrowing whatever the government deems is their EFC, they are often surprised. They thought that applying Early Decision to a “loan free” school was safe… until they realized that as a middle-income kid, they could still be responsible or $20,000/year or more in college costs. I’ve also spoken with students who don’t apply Early Action because they fear financial penalty, even when it’s not binding. I can’t say that I blame them because applying Early Action does give the impression that you’re willing to pay if you’re admitted.

3) If you’ve spent much time with seniors, you’ll know that they change their minds almost daily about where they’re going to school. One student who was absolutely CERTAIN of her decision in August when she began the early admissions process was miserable in the spring at the thought of attending the school. Why do we keep pushing the timeline back when the vast majority of students are not ready to make such a heavy decision?