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Israel Announces First Grants in $350-Million Program to Reverse Brain Drain

May 31, 2011, 12:15 pm

The Israeli government has announced the first three grants in its $350-million program to create 30 Centers of Research Excellence to lure Israeli scholars back from abroad. The first centers will be established in molecular science, led by the Hebrew University professor Howard Cedar; in cognitive processes, led by the Weizmann Institute of Science professor Yadin Dudai; and in computer science, led by the Tel Aviv University professor Yishay Mansour. The three centers have already signed up 11 Israeli scholars currently at U.S. institutions including Columbia, Harvard, and Yale Universities and the University of California at Berkeley. “In the framework of the national program to establish centers of excellence, some 300 leading Israeli scholars from the best universities in the world are expected to return to Israel,” said Manuel Trajtenberg, chairman of the Planning and Budgeting Committee of the Israel Council for Higher Education.

The award caps a good month for the Cedar family. Mr. Cedar’s son Joseph, a leading Israeli movie director and Oscar nominee, just won the award for best screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival for his movie Footnote, about competing father-son Talmud scholars at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

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  • http://twitter.com/AGW_Prof Scott A Mandia

    “a substantial body of criticism within the scientific community” Sources?  Dr. Mann’s research was supported by the National Academy of Sciences and many subsequent paleo reconstructions also show the hockey stick.  His work is very well respected by those that understand his research.

    You are libeling not only Dr. Mann but also the scientific method when you claim (without proof) that Mann is resorting to trickery and data suppression.  These are serious charges.  Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence but all you have offered is rhetoric. 

    On the other hand, I showed evidence that reveals the hockey stick results using different types of data and different types of techniques from various international scientists.  Shall we assume that you believe these scientists also used tricks and data suppression?

  • tedkirkpatrick

    The most relevant form of a scholar’s reputation is its assessment by peers
    within the relevant community.  By that criterion, Dr. Mann’s reputation is
    extremely good, as his fellow climate scientists regard both him and his
    work highly.  

    By contrast, two of your key statements about climate science contain severe
    errors.  First, the contribution of Dr. Mann’s original hockey stick paper
    was not the observation that the global average temperature anomaly was
    rapidly increasing in the late twentieth century.  That part of the graph
    (the “blade” of the stick) displayed the results of instrumental records
    gathered by other groups.  Dr. Mann’s contribution was the first estimate of
    northern hemisphere temperature anomalies for the period 1400-1900 (the
    “handle” of the stick). This first effort has stimulated a number of
    other papers, from a variety of groups using a diversity of approaches.
    This is the strongest indicator of a substantive contribution to the field.

    Second, you erroneously claim in your comment above that “scientific
    orthodoxy” reduces to an acceptance merely of “some global warming”.  In
    fact, the best scientific consensus—supported by detailed analysis of many
    lines of evidence—produces specific estimates of warming for various
    levels of human CO2 emissions, with upper and lower bounds.
    The lower bounds presented in the consensus estimates are high enough to
    indicate a substantial threat to human welfare unless we make serious
    efforts to reduce emissions.  To accept the best-supported scientific
    theory is to admit that we have a serious problem.

  • EliRabett

    Peter Wood provides another example of the confused in pursuit of the correct, something that permeates discussions of climate science and environmental problems in general.  As Tenny pointed out, a good place to start learning about the science in Kerry Emanuel’s essay in the NAS journal.  Something Peter Wood would do well to read or if he has read it, to understand.

    However, since the essay has no scientific information, perhaps we could consider the message.  The NAS has what little bite it has defending an imagined higher education orthodoxy of 50 years ago, but Peter Wood decries higher education orthodoxy as Barnumesq, from which we conclude . . . . Well, what do we conclude? If orthodoxy is bad were the hippies right in the 1960s and the anti-vaxers right today?  Is Wood defending those who think HIV is a CIA plot or that the World Trade Center was blown up by the “government”? 

  • taylor_b

    Professor Mandia, Dr. Kirkpatrick, and Tenney Naumer are correct that Dr. Mann’s reputation among well-informed scientists is intact. There is no substantial body of criticism of Dr. Mann’s work in the scientific community that hasn’t been substantially refuted. There has been much unsubstantiated criticism of Dr. Mann’s work among the *misinformed* public attributable to the efforts of fossil fuel interests and their allies who have mounted a methodical and heavily funded public relations campaign to discredit Dr. Mann, both personally and professionally.  They have resorted to extremely ethically and legally questionable methods to do so. 

    Foremost among these efforts to discredit Dr. Mann was the work of the George Mason University statistician, Dr. Andrew Wegman, who produced a thoroughly discredited report to Congress in 2006, supported by misleading testimony regarding the level of peer review that his report supposedly underwent.  Dr. Wegman’s testimony represented his report as having undergone a thorough peer review process “similar to that employed by the National Research Council,” which was untrue (see p. 54, Section A.1.4 “Response to Stupak” in John Mashey’s investigative report, “Strange Scholarship in the Wegman Report”). 

    It is Dr. Wegman’s scientific reputation that is now in jeopardy, not Dr. Mann’s.  It is Dr. Wegman’s shoddy and plagiarized research on Social Network analysis and climate science that is finally being subjected to long-overdue scrutiny, thanks largely to the volunteer efforts of John Mashey and the blogger Deep Climate.  The retraction of Dr. Wegman’s pal-reviewed, plagiarized, and deeply flawed paper from the journal Computational Statistics and Data Analysis is hardly “flyspecking,” as Peter Wood claims.

    If the goal of NAS is really to improve higher education, why aren’t they asking questions about George Mason University’s dilatory investigation of Dr. Wegman, and GMU’s tolerance of plagiarism among several of his doctoral students?

  • darkmountain

    Peter Wood, you seem insistent on slandering Mike Mann and unconcerned with the scientific vacuity and other manifest scholarly faults of the criticisms against him, the latter demonstrated by John Mashey, Deep Climate http://deepclimate.org/ and others. Are you familiar with these matters? Pray tell the source of your information, knowledge and confidence. 

  • peterwwood

    tedkirkpatrick, EliRabett, taylor_b, and darkmountain seem pretty certain that all is well with Professor Mann’s reputation.   This is a pretty good illustration of academic cocooning.  Even if one were totally unacquainted with the controversies, It takes no more than a few minutes of googling to acquaint oneself with the situation.  Indeed the whole point of Dr. Hashey’s crusade is to attempt to counter the widespread view that Professor Mann’s scientific pronouncements have been, at least in some prominent cases, compromised by special pleading and other forms of academic dishonesty.  If it is “slander” to mention this fact, Professor Mann has before him hundreds if not thousands of critics against whom he can pursue litigation.  I expect I am pretty far down the list.Peter Wood

  • taylor_b

    The best example of “academic cocooning” one could cite in this debate is GMU’s endless “inquiry” into the dishonesty and plagiarism of their star statistician, Andrew Wegman.  Do you really think it’s necessary for GMU’s preliminary inquiry to take over a year to recognize simple plagiarism?   Even the journal CSDA, where Wegman was a former editor, took the necessary step of retracting a closely related paper by Wegman and his former doctoral student, Yasmin Said.  This was the paper on Social Networks in climate science that Dr. Wegman had promoted in his misleading testimony to Congress as a follow-up to his dishonest, plagiarized, and discredited report.   Dr. Wegman promised many things to Congress in his testimony, including the computer code he used to perform his “analysis” of Michael Mann’s work, but the only thing he actually produced was this single flawed paper, which is now retracted.

    Let it be known for the record that Peter Wood is defending Wegman’s dishonesty, while attacking the professional reputation of Dr. Mann, against whom there are no formal allegations of any substance whatever, and whose work has been repeatedly confirmed by independent researchers.  And Mr. Wood is doing so without having cited a single piece of evidence. 

    Nicely done, Mr. Wood.  Hashing John Mashey’s name is a particularly subtle and convincing approach, in the absence of any coherent argument or evidence.  Perhaps if you spent more than a few minutes reading the science to really acquaint yourself with the situation, instead of a few minutes dabbling with “the Google,” you might not present yourself as such an ignorant fool.  You ought to be making an apology to the climate science community on behalf of your organization, at the very least.  You are an embarrassment.

  • EliRabett

     Peter darlin, Eli didn’t say anything about Prof. Mann.  Reading comprehension is one of those things that NAS thinks it supports.  Your reply just drives the nail into that coffin.

  • tedkirkpatrick

    Peter, I’m well aquainted with the faux-troversy launched against Mann.  The onus is on you, not me.  If you’re going to use a blog at the Chronicle of Higher Education to claim that a prominent academic has had some of his “scientific pronouncements …
    compromised by special pleading and other forms of academic dishonesty”,  you have to give more evidence than telling your readers to search the Web.  What do you think was amiss and where is your evidence?

  • darkmountain

     Peter Wood, in your first comment you did not merely say
    that Mike Mann has been slandered on the internet. You asserted several
    slanders on your own authority. Tonight, rather than accept the
    invitation to support your statements you want to back off to
    essentially “someone else did it first.” It must have occurred to you
    that you do not know these things and that you are in well over your
    head. A little more reflection will I trust bring the realization that
    in this circumstance it was quite improper for you to have made those
    assertions. It is hardly the mark of a gentleman and a scholar to repeat
    scurrilous slanders and shrug it off with “oh well, he probably won’t
    sue me.” If you value your own reputation it is time to heed the rule of
    holes: when you find yourself in one stop digging.

    Surely the gentlemanly thing is to apologize, and the scholarly thing is
    to study and grasp the import of the primary literature. Since you
    criticized John Mashey first, your task begins with his substantial
    research found online here: 
    http://www.desmogblog.com/science-article-recognizes-john-mashey

    That said, you and many of your readers are not likely to know the full
    background of what you have jumped into. I’ll try to help with that in a
    subsequent comment. By the way, last night my comment appeared under my
    Chronicle user name, which is a translation of my surname. I hope my
    proper name will appear this time.   … It doesn’t want to change. But
    Chronicle readers can translate back to German.

  • charles1893

    Dr. Wood, you wrote in reply: “To say as Tenney Naumer does that Dr. Mann’s reputation is “very much intact,” however, is to set aside a substantial body of criticism within the scientific community as well as from the informed public.”

    Can you point me to this substantial body of criticism of Dr. Mann’s work within the scientific community? As a scholar who has followed the “hockey stick” research since 2007, I have tried to find such scholarly criticism, but have thus far failed to do so. As far as I can determine from all the investigations into Dr. Mann’s work, it still stands largely intact; moreover, its overall conclusions appear to be supported by a number of other empirical investigations.

    You also suggest that there is “statistical trickery and suppression of discrepant data that were essential ingredients of the hockey stick graph.” Again, can you point me to specific sources to back up these claims of intentional trickery and suppression of data? Thanks. 

    I am not “cocooning”; if you make allegations, your job is to back them up with evidence. Claiming that the rest of us are “cocooning” is hardly a sufficient reply.

    Cheers.

  • ray_ladbury

    Peter Wood,
    Your piece, in addition to being scurrilous slander, is pure ad hominem.  If you truly think you are correct, then why the reluctance to engage based on evidence?  Could it possibly be because over a dozen subsequent paleoclimate reconstructions confirm the essence of Dr. Mann’s conclusions–that current warming is unprecedented for at least 1000 years–and much more than that given the rate?  Could it be because you know that independent techniques–borehole investigations, speleothermic studies also support Dr. Mann’s conclusions?  Could it be that you realize that even if Dr. Mann were wrong, it would not significantly weaken the case for anthropogenic climate change?

    Or is it merely that you are congenitally incapable of telling the whole truth?

  • peterwwood

    Dear darkmountain, I see nothing to apologize for, thank you.  I stand by my comments and rather welcome this display of self-congratulatory ignorance on the part of people who are desperately afraid to look at the facts.  I am not going to spoil it by providing citations.  Those are easily available to anyone willing to look.

    Peter Wood

  • _perplexed_

    It could be that he just doesn’t know a damn thing about climate science.

  • peterwwood

    Could be, and then again, maybe he does.

    Peter Wood

  • taylor_b

    You seem very uncertain whether you do or not, Mr. Wood.  Perhaps, as with your reply to dark mountain’s comment above, you prefer to leave the exercise up to the reader to find out, since you’re unwilling to provide any evidence in support of your claim.  Brilliant!  Do let us know when you find out if you have anything at all to say about any subject about which you know anything.

  • chuckkle

    Marka: bit of a problem with your argument.  Peter Wood rejects the idea that science is socially constructed in his dismissal of Latour.  Latour in his early work was trying to understand how the process of laboratory science comes about through compromise, adjustment, etc.  He wrote a book on how Pasteur’s ideas were only gradually accepted (and majorly resisted by some sectors), even though they were scientifically correct.  Science, especially in its playing out in policy, politics, and practice, is a social construction.  Sound familiar? Wood has to trash Latour; otherwise he’d have to admit to his own partisanship in this discussion.  Perhaps Wood can escape the heat of this set of climate critics by explaining to all of us why Creation Science is a viable area of university teaching and research.

    Chuck Kleinhans

  • peterwwood

    Our friend chuckkle, the fantasist, has outdone himself.  Why ask me about “Creation Science?”  Perhaps because I was once provost of a Christian college?  Granted, that college neither taught nor espoused “Creation Science,” and I have no interest in the topic, but why let those little details in the way?  In the effort to defend academic orthodoxy on topics such as the rate of man-made global warming, it seems virtually any tactic aimed at silencing skeptics is welcome.  I know how reassuring this is to the true-believers.  ’Look at how many of us there are!  Look how we agree with each other!  Look at how smart we are!  We must surely be right!  And those who disagree with us must surely be stupid or paid-off by oil companies!’  

    This fine chain of reasoning is well represented in this thread leading up the capstone of chukkles’ non sequitur.  Still, most of these writers who have bravely defended the reputation of Professor Mann and the climate change orthodoxy for which he stands have prudently chosen to write under pseudonyms. That will save some awkward explaining if  things don’t work out quite as they expect.

    Peter Wood

  • chuckkle

    Oh, Gee Whiz!  I forgot to add a smiley face to that last line of my post!  How could I forget that PW has no sense of humor?

    But once again, Wood tries through misdirection to avoid dealing with the plain issues raised by previous posters (such as citations to a few sources for his authoritative–and rather authoritarian–pronouncements), or in this case the question of the social construction of science.

    It does seem though, that the conclusion of Wood’s blog post is that there’s nothing to be done about fossil fuels and climate change until the science is definitively settled by historical events.  Marka seems to agree with that.  This doesn’t seem to be a message that actually helps you recruit people to the NAS cause.  I always thought leadership was signaled by projecting a positive change, not this endless Grumpy Old Man muttering that Wood does.  In style, if not thought, Palin’s “Drill baby drill!” could work up enthusiasm among the Tea Party.  The NAS today? ….seems kind of worn out, pessimistic, resigned.

    Nice try; no cigar.  (that’s a joke) [OOPS, I forgot, Wood supports "science" that says second hand smoke is no problem.]

    Chuck Kleinhans

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=521388513 James Haughton

    It would seem that “a few minutes of googling”, presumably at climateaudit is indeed all the effort that Peter Wood has put into researching this piece.

    The one factual claim in the original article, that Mann’s work “shows exponentially increasing global temperatures in the near term.” is incorrect – Mann’s work was about reconstructing the temperature record from 1400 to ~1900, the exponential increase is in the instrumental record from multiple, independent other sources.

    Mr Wood then claims that Professor Mann indulged in “statistical trickery”, “data suppression”, “special pleading” and “academic dishonesty”. He provides no evidence for any of these assertions, despite repeated requests and pointers towards the numerous enquiries, reexaminations, etc, all of which have cleared Professor Mann. This leads one to conclude that he is unable to produce the evidence, that he doesn’t understand the issues, and that he wouldn’t know a Principal Component Analysis if he fell over it.

    As someone who claims to be president of the “National Association of Scholars”, he is stunningly silent on the repeatedly demonstrated plagiarism of Prof Wegman and his associates. One would think that plagiarism is something a “National Association of Scholars” would oppose. Apparently not – Mr Wood is far more concerned with opposing “green tyranny” and claiming that there are too many blacks and women getting money to go into science (direct quote: “Cut every program that is designed to advance women and minorities in the social sciences. Women and minorities are seldom disadvantaged in these fields”).

    But then, what would you expect from a man who gave a medal to George W Bush for “upholding the noblest traditions of higher education” (presumably including lying, dissembling rhetoric, and a reliance on faith rather than reason, as these also seem to characterise Wood and Wegman’s work) and whose organisation is “funded extensively by politically conservative foundations, including the Sarah Scaife Foundation, the John M. Olin Foundation, the Bradley Foundation, the Castle Rock Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation”?

  • EliRabett

     Come now, who would be so foolish as to accept such an excuse from one of those lazy, silly students the NAS constantly rails about.  D- if Eli were feeling generous.

  • taylor_b

    Did you mean to say non sequitur, Mr. Wood?  I’d think this is a Latin phrase with which you’d be familiar, given your position as leader of such a scholarly organization, and in light of your writing style, which scrupulously avoids facts or substance.  Couldn’t you at least offer a crumb of evidence to support your libelous attacks on climate scientists, or provide a little piece of insight as to how you would overturn this field of inquiry?  Because if you are correct, then you and the scientists who made such discoveries would probably win a Nobel Prize.  In fact, any number of the scientists you accuse of protecting Dr. Mann would love to be the first to publish the science-overturning research showing that there’s no reason to worry about man-made CO2 causing temperatures to rise.  There are plenty of other interesting topics within the field of climate studies to which they could redirect their attention and obtain funds for research.

    It might surprise you to learn that, as one would hope, climate scientists are indeed constantly revising, refining, and updating their models and their understanding of climate and all the human and natural effects upon it, as new data and methods become available.  For example, here’s an article in a recent issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by a group of researchers that includes…well, guess who?  Michael Mann as a coauthor!  I guess he’s not quite as discredited as you thought.  Anyway, it’s an interesting study of how a rapid rise in short-lived sulfur emissions from the burning of coal in China partially offset the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas concentrations during 1998-2008.  “As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects,” write the authors.  This is hardly the rigid, monolithic, conspiratorial orthodoxy you describe.  On the other hand, special pleading is a bit of a niche for many of the so-called skeptical scientists.  “Why can’t we get our shoddy and ideologically biased work published in the leading journals?” they ask.

    However, if you prefer to defend plagiarism and other forms of scientific dishonesty, as practiced by Edward Wegman and his team when they set out to mislead Congress with their partly federally funded study, then perhaps NAS is an organization that welcomes such “leadership.”  Perhaps you should create a special medal for these sorts of “contributions,” and call it the “Wegman Prize” or the “Joe Barton Award” for deceiving Congress and wasting the public’s tax dollars.

    As for the use of pseudonyms, we’re aware of the death threats and hate-mail directed at scientists who study climate and those who defend their honest, hard work.

  • ScaredAmoeba

    [quote]…“hide the decline” Michael Mann… [endquote]

    Where does this Dr Peter Wood get his science? Fox News?

  • chuckkle

    PW: “…it seems virtually any tactic aimed at silencing skeptics is welcome. ”  This is so hilarious!  After a couple of dozen posters have kept asking Peter Wood to TALK about his evidence, cite some relevant work, etc.  he claims he’s being silenced!  I think Wood spent too many years in academic administration and lost track of what academic discourse is about: talk, exchange, discussion.  If one party refuses to participate, they can’t exactly get anyone to think they’ve been “silenced.”

    Every academic I know can provide copious examples of how academics are capable of virtually endless discussion of matters, especially inconsequential ones, in department meetings and committee work.  Early on in my career I finally figure out that this always happened at the first department meeting in the fall–passionate and partisan discussion over some totally trivial matter–and that the reason for it was that it is how academics bond (without alcohol being served).

    Come on Peter, come sit at the big table, share with others, don’t pout and sulk and withdraw.  Come on, there’s some milk and cookies here.  Don’t be afraid, we just want to hear your evidence.

    Chuck Kleinhans

  • peterwwood

    Thanks for catching that typo taylor_b.  I have corrected it.  

    On the broader matter, I have written not one word about Edward Wegman for or against, and yet you cast me as his defender and draw quite a few inferences from this supposition.  This is a near perfect example of academic dishonesty on your part, and probably “slander” in the exact meaning of the term.  You are attributing views to me you know very well I don’t hold in order to damage my reputation.  Given that this is acceptable procedure among the ranks of “climate scientists” and their supporters, is it any wonder that the field is having what might be called “public relations problems?”

  • taylor_b

    Since your original article lacks any facts or substance and is based largely on innuendo and supposition, and you’ve repeatedly refused to back up your allegations against Dr. Mann with any evidence, we’re left to infer what views you have about anything, and guess for ourselves from what evidence you draw your conclusions.  What you’ve said is that Dr. Mann’s reputation is “tattered,” Dr. Mashey’s work consists of “flyspecking,” and that “journals” have responded to Dr. Mashey’s “demands” by retracting said flyspecked articles.  In fact, the only journal that has yet retracted any article about which Dr. Mashey has written is the journal Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, and the article was co-authored by Wegman and Said.  The article tracked closely the material on Social Networks in climate science that Wegman presented in his report and testimony to Congress, and is the only work Wegman produced in fulfillment of promises he made in that testimony.  As you might even be aware from your Googling, Dr. Mann’s “hockey stick” graph was the subject of Dr. Wegman’s report.

    Since you’re attacking Dr. Mann without providing any evidence, and the plagiarism in Wegman’s record of publication is the subject of Dr. Mashey’s work in the Science editorial you quoted, I think it’s fair to conclude that you feel Dr. Mann’s and Dr. Mashey’s alleged transgressions are far worse than those of the authors whose paper was retracted (Wegman and Said).  You’ve been conspicuously silent about the subject of the Science editorial (in fact what you’ve written here so far is nearly content-free), which is GMU’s much delayed investigation of Dr. Wegman.  Therefore, I infer that you feel Dr. Wegman and his retracted article were treated unfairly, which I construe as a defense of Wegman on your part.  But do let us know what are your views on these matters, including the plagiarism in Wegman’s work, and please support your allegations with evidence, whenever you get around to it.

  • cocotartufo

    Peterwood
     
    I remember when most scientists still expressed uncertainty about the exact influence of humans on the climate.  It was the accumulation of data — lots of it, along multiple lines – as well as the decades of deliberation over that evidence that has slowly and painfully given birth to the current broad scientific consensus about the implications of CO2 on climate. 
     
    Mann’s work is only one part of that picture — and, despite your imputations, nothing about his work has proven inconsistent with that of many other independent scientists working in the field and in related subjects. And that evidence is all that really matters in the end.  Nature could care less what you find with Google!
     
    And consensus in science is a good thing, last I checked. Scientists hold on to their individuality jealously – as is clearly evident if you’ve ever been in a faculty meeting with a bunch of them.   But science would never move forward if anytime the evidence predominantly indicates a particular conclusion, we averted our eyes simply for some irrational fear of what you dismissively refer to as “coccooning.” 

    Should we perpetually remain in the larval state, afraid to face the true implications of our findings?  That would not only be the coward’s way, it would be the way to madness.

  • JohnMashey

    (Sorry, catching up, it will take a while to get to the original post.).

    Dr. Whitaker, do you in fact think that AGW is “hot air” or did you just anticipate that Dr. Wood was going to say that???

    Likewise, can you explain the relationship of the AGW topic to your concerns about contemporary universities??

  • http://twitter.com/deltoidblog Tim Lambert

    Wood excuses Wegman’s plagiarism, calling it a flyspeck:

    “Mashey has been, as he puts it, “trying to take the offense” against global warming skeptics by flyspecking their publications. “You hope they make a mistake,” he says, and when they do, he pounces with demands that journals retract whole articles. Some journals indeed have.”

    Compare with Wood’s comments on Wade Churchill’s dismissal for plagiarism:

    “Yesterday Denver District Court Judge Larry J. Naves turned down Ward Churchill’s motion to be reinstated in his professorial position. The former University of Colorado Ethnic Studies professor walks away from his celebrated trial with his jury award of one dollar, the prospect of enduring popularity on the academic left, but not much more–for now. … Here is why I think Judge Naves decided the case correctly. …
    The jury in the Churchill trial came in with a verdict that almost perfectly captured the diffidence American feel about the matter. It recognized that Churchill’s firing was in some wise connected to his provocative speech, but it didn’t deny the plain evidence of Churchill’s plagiarism, academic misconduct, and falsified credentials. The one-dollar award was the minimum that Judge Naves told the jury it could award in the event that it found in favor of Churchill.”

    For Peter Wood, whether plagiarism is grounds for dismissal or a flyspeck seems to depend on whether they are on his side or not.

  • EliRabett

     If the end does not come on time, perhaps like the Y2K issue, folks identified the problem, put resources in to solving it and worked darn hard just so the end would not come.  Or perhaps you think that the tooth fairy did not deliver?  It would be a good precedent to follow on climate change.

  • JohnMashey

     I am still keen to discover if marka has substantial  relevant IT experience or  may be suffering from Dunning-Kruger..  Most of the people espousing this Y2K view turned out to have ~zero relevant IT experience.  But marka may be the exception.  We should give him a few days to reply.

    There is of course a good parallel with AGW in one sense: there are amateurs on all sides who sometimes babble, so one ought to ignore them in favor of the professionals, assuming one can tell the difference.

  • JohnMashey

    Wood wrote a series of CHE blog articles on (sustainability) – Tyranny or theft , starting:
    http://chronicle.com/blogs/innovations/tyranny-or-theft-part-1

    That was occasioned by his participation (in several panels) at:
    http://www.americanfreedomalliance.org/microsite/big-footprint/program.htm
    http://www.americanfreedomalliance.org/microsite/big-footprint/about.htm

    Speakers included many well-known folks, including the Viscount Monckton, of whom Wood wrote:

    “The UCLA conference, on the other hand, was rambunctious and rather assertive in its
    diagnoses and prescriptions. It aimed at kicking out the props holding up bad science, worse economics, and really awful politics.

    Big Footprint
    The tone of “Big Footprint” was set by the opening keynote address by Christopher Monckton—Lord Monckton—a hereditary peer and deputy leader of the UK Independence Party who is an outspoken skeptic about anthropogenic global warming. “Skeptic” is perhaps an understatement in his case.

    Lord Monckton is an agile, nose-tweaking, derisive foe of those who believe that significant global warming has resulted from human contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere. He is more caustic still towards those who believe that carbon reductions, cap and trade, windmills, and the like can be deployed to achieve any meaningful reduction in greenhouse gases. Let’s say Lord Monckton’s keynote address was not an attempt to find the redeeming features of a flawed movement, or to discover a winsome approach to those who are ambivalent about the alleged threat of global warming.”

    Several other speakers took similar tough-minded approaches, though none were so wry in
    delivery.”
     
    Sadly, Wood’s mention of the wry delivery omitted mention of the swastikas in Monckton’s talk:
    http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/06/monckton_says_that_if_you_acce.php

  • Guest

    Why is it necessary to mention this?  Governments and NGOs all over the world spend an order of magnitude more than corporations are spending.  But their hearts aren’t really in it:  they are making billions of dollars/pounds in subsidy from tax-payers for things like totally useless wind farms.

  • Guest

    Is this the guy that said we’re all going to die in hurricanes as the world heats up (to congress, or was it the US senate) and has now changed his mind?  Yes… I think it is.  He’s a snake-oil salesman just like Mann.

  • Guest

    His work hasn’t been “verified” – it’s been “reproduced”.  What this means is that groups of people have taken his methods and the same data he used and come up with the same results.  Some have even replicated his mistakes in order to do so.   His work is still unmitigated rubbish of course, especially his wonderfully fictitious ”hockey stick”.

  • Guest

    Yes, we shall.

  • Guest

    He has you ignorant fool.  Ask Steve McIntyre how hard it was to get any data out of Mann for the purposes of replication.

  • Llammy

    Crickey! I have never seen so much ad hom, appeals to authority and straw men in a comments section!

    If as some have tried to point out, Mann has been libelled why does he not sue? This has been going on for some years with S.M. etc openly critical of Mann’s work. Montford in his book, “The Hockey Stick Illusion” lays it all out but once again, no threat of legal action. Tenney etc all throw themselves behind Mann with appeals to authority and claim the HS has been cleared but has it really? Not from what I read!

    None of this is real science and shame on the lot of you for trying to pass it off as the real thing! If there is nothing to hide, share the data that is mostly paid for by the taxpayers, stop it with the false oil company funding argument (check out where the CRU funding comes from!) and simply let the truth out. It is the real way to save the planet. Even sceptics used to donate into ecological causes until “Climate” scientists muddied the water!

  • Llammy

    Only one thing to say in reply to that rubbish……….Chris Landsea, an honest bloke! 

    http://www.webcitation.org/6005fkwJv

  • Llammy

    Your models say that temperatures should be rising now, empirical science says temperature has been statistically flat for ten years or so. Your post reads like a religious rant rather than a scientific reality! Full of ad hom, straw men and appeals to authority with a little “global health threat” to try to scare the little people! Pathetic!

  • EWorrall

    Politicised science is dangerous, and can lead to bad places. http://www.michaelcrichton.net/essay-stateoffear-whypoliticizedscienceisdangerous.html

  • trashman

    Can you find any published science that shows Dr. Mann’s work and all the supporting research is wrong?  I am talking about real science here, not the blogosphere.
     
    [In short, steve, why don't you do your own homework?  For example, have you ever heard of the terms, "divergence", "hide the decline", "Medieval Warm Period",  "Roman Warm Period", "Holocene Optimum", "Yamal YAD06", "Briffa [2008]“, “McIntyre and McKitrick [2005]“, ”stripbark bristlecone”, “upside down Tiljander”, “climateaudit.org”…?  Hint: try looking at Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit site under “categories” and find “divergence”.  Also note that McIntyre immediately shows all of his “science” – his data sources and processing algorithms/a.k.a. “materials and methods” – regardless of whether his work is published or not, something which the publications, Nature and Science, have not done, contrary to their own standards for publication as supposing to adhere to the practice of real scientific method and principle science!
     
    And, steve, real science has nothing to do with where an analysis is published – or even with the funding, where you will find some otherwise strange funders of Climate Science, such as the support of Hadley CRU by Shell Oil and BP - but only if it employs real scientific method and principle science. Another hint: “peer review” by a few selected peers was never intended to convey the idea that the reviewed and then published article constitutes the “given truth”.  Note that that’s another way “Climate Science” is in direct contradiction to the practice of real scientific method and principle science, where the real “peer review” starts only after an article is published via “replication” - and sceptical evaluation by anyone interested.]
     
    Ok, I’ll try to explain some of the contrary evidence relating to Mann’s work: Mann’s “science” – that is, the “materials and methods” which result in his “Hockeystick” reconstruction of temperatures before the existence of thermometers - most importantly purports to eliminate the well documented Medieval Warm Period, going backwards to around 1000 AD, when the Vikings were farming and grazing Greenland, in order to show that Modern Warming is “unprecedented”. Why the CO2 = CAGW “Climate Scientists” thought getting rid of the MWP would also erase the previous fairly well-documented holocene Warm Periods, all of which were quite likely as warm or warmer than the current modern warming, is a mystery - except that Mann’s self-named “Hockey Team”, and the bulk of Climate Scientists., implied that they didn’t exist, either, simply by not mentioning them!  Apparently in Climate Science, geologic history starts only about 1000 years ago!
     
    But apart from the well known failings of Mann’s “PC1″ ad hoc statistical methods used upon “stripbarks” – trees which no longer even grow to form “rings” except under a remaining strip of bark going vertically up the trunk, judged by an NAS panel [2006?] to be unacceptable for temperature reconstructions, and shown by Ababneh’s [2006] updated bristlecone data to contradict/diverge from Mann’s selected Greybill stripbark data, which Greybill also knew diverged from non-stripbark ring data, as to whatever the bristlecone ring proxy is intended to track [Greybill thought it was CO2 levels] - which “mine” for hockeysticks in “red noise”, regardless [McIntyre and McKitrick 2005], and which were not developed by any bona fide statistician, only by Mann himself, or reviewed/audited in any significant way whatsoever until McIntyre and McKitrick [2005]; and most lately by McShane [2010], the latter which showed that Mann’s methods did not even lead to any significant correlation of Mann’s data and methods in Mann’s/our own modern instrumental calibration period; apart from those problems, unless you get really lucky and have a very long “calibration period”, it is manifestly absurd that localized wild bristlecone and foxtail pine tree rings mainly at Sheep Mountain in the Sierras should track a Global Mean Temperature, of all things, which they indeed did not, again as then demonstrated by the divergence of Mann’s tree ring data and methods either within the calibration period or the previous geological period “reconstructed”, and displayed by McIntyre on his “not to be mentioned” blog, Climate Audit, under his category, ”bristlecones”, in his discussion of Ababneh [2006]!  That is, Ababneh’s data reveals a divergence either before or after the modern period defining Mann’s bristlecone dependent Hockeystick “temperature” reconstruction, again alleging to erase the MWP and show the current warm period as “unprecedented”, whereas Mann’s bristlecones simply don’t line up with Ababneh’s updated data! 
     
    But did you know that McIntyre is/was an official ipcc Reviewer? And that he recommended to the ipcc that the “divergence problem” importantly involving Briffa’s Yamal/Northeast Siberia data and methods be explicitily revealed in the ipcc’s 4AR at the time, and adequately explained; and not instead so infamously ”hidden” in iconic ipcc and WMO graphs, as the divergence in fact was - and as also specifically admitted in the “Mann’s Nature trick” and ”hide the decline” Climategate emails?  
     
    Then the known divergence of Briffa’s Yamal larch/northeast Siberia temperature reconstruction – another Hockeystick based upon tree rings – was rather stunningly further abetted by the release of Briffa’s previously unrevealed [Science mag. 2000 and 2006] Yamal data, once his “materials and methods” were finally published by the “Phil Trans. B” in 2009, whereupon it was also revealed that Briffa’s own updated “treemometers”, statistically alleging to contain the modern “blade” of the hockeystick and the “shaft” projecting flat Global Mean “Temperatures” backwards toward the Medieval Warm Period, were resolved to essentially depend upon only one tree, YAD06 for the “blade” !
     
    In the case of Mann’s and Briffa’s work, whose adequately discredited Hockeysticks are so critical to Climate Science’s CO2 = CAGW “proof” that they simply won’t let them go, how much more evidence of ”wrong”, anti-science ”methods” and results and  do you need in order to question the whole of Climate Science’s “methods”?  But, for example, did you know that the hypotheses involving CO2 = CAGW “Climate Science” have not yet yielded even one correct, empirically confirmed prediction uniquely involving the GCM “physics”, or needed to explain any modern era weather or climate feature? [Now, apparently Climate Science is even trying to call dramatic weather events "climate" = "Anthropogenic Climate Disruption"!]  

  • EricAdler

    You are simply regurgitating what you have read in denier blogs.

    In fact  since Mann’s paper in 1999, a dozen papers have used different sets of paleoclimate data and different analysis methods, to explore the average temperature over the last 1000-2000 years and came to essentially the same conclusions. Your claim of reliance on only a single tree is a myth.

    There is a lot of evidence for the role of CO2 in global warming from radiation spectra. The decrease in outgoing radiation in the region of the absorption spectrum of CO2 has been observed over time by satellite measurements.  In addition the observed decrease in stratospheric temperature is a signature of global warming due the GHG’s as is the increased height of the tropopause.

    In fact it is the global warming deniers whose methods are antiscience. Approximately 3% of climate scientists don’t accept the theory of AGW. This has been shown by 2 independent polls of climate scientists as well as analysis of the published literature. Most of the opposition comes from amateurs who do not produce peer reviewed publications.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Anna-Haynes/1186871204 Anna Haynes

    Disclosure, for the record: I have no background in climate science that qualifies me to question the findings of that scientific field.

  • EricAdler

    Trashman,
    It seems that you have been absorbing soundbites for AGW denier sites, and are not familiar with the rebuttals.

    Briffa et. al. have published rebuttals to McIntyre’s criticism of their use of tree rings as temperature proxies.

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/

     Non tree ring proxies have also been used to compute global temperatures, and provided hockey stick like graphs.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/09/progress-in-millennial-reconstructions/

    The 1995 graph you are referring to is not a graph of global or northern hemispherical temperature. It was an estimate of temperatures in Central England as estimated by Lamb.  The authors of the IPCC report in which it appeared, mistakenly labeled it as a schematic graph global temperature. It also should be noted that it doesn’t show data past 1950, so it leaves out the blade of the hockey stick.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/IPCC-Medieval-Warm-Period.htm

    This graph has been used as proof that the MWP has been subsequently been made to disappear by AGW deniers, despite the fact that this mistaken attribution has been known for a long time.

    It seems that you are a fountain of disinformation which you have absorbed from AGW denier web sites, and haven’t bothered to look at the corrections which are easily found on the world wide web.

  • EricAdler

    JonasN,
    Your implication that I am a “denier” because I apparently don’t believe that the MWP or LIA weren’t there is made up BS. You will never find any statement I made which even implies this. Those eras are clearly identifiable  on proxy graphs of global and NH temperatures which also show a hockey stick blade in the modern era. The point of these graphs is that the blade shows a more rapid increase and higher temperature than the MWP.

    I won’t reply to the unsupported ad hominem statements that you made about me. It is clear that you are unable to rebut the scientific arguments I have made in rebuttal to your unsound claims for example – feedback of 3.5X are assumed by climate scientists, and unlikely to be present based on common sense. 

  • JonasN

    Eric, (as so many times before) read what i said!

    I asked if ySteve were denying the existence of any MWP, LIA (and previous warm periods)? I have asked you the same thing before. Only rendering evasion and new talkning points.

    Do you know the difference between a statment and a question? Between firm afirmations stated in absolute terms on one hand, and pointing out that such statments are tentative, hypotheses, afflicted with uncertainties, and relying on several other assumptions too?

    Well in case you didn’t: The difference is huge, and you often try the former, wheras I point out the latter.

    This is why you come across as a die-hard activist, never engaging in real debate. Ony piling upp new talking points and calling them ‘rebuttals’.

  • JonasN

    One more point regarding the Hockeystick:

    The blade, esp. the tip, is not part of the reconstruction, it constitues the grafted-on instrumental record. The reconstruction showed something else: essentially that the proxies weren’t for temperature (only). Hence ‘hide the decline’ …

  • EricAdler

    Trashman,

    There is no point in replying to your unsupported characterizations of the quality of climate science. It is a research discipline accepted by universities world wide.

    Your statement, about the actions of China and India’s governments, in using fossil fuels to power their economies, as somehow debunking the conclusion of climate scientists is nonsense. It illustrates the dilemma of human kind – we are animals designed to respond to short term threats and find it hard to plan for the future if it means sacrifice today.

    Both China and India are overpopulated and need sources of energy for development. Both governments recognize that fossil fuels are a problem, and are pursuing energy sources that don’t emit GHG’s. China is a leader in producing solar power systems and is pursuing nuclear power as well.  India is interested in nuclear power as well.

  • trashman

    EricAdler 4 hours ago in reply to trashman Trashman,
    It seems that you have been absorbing soundbites for AGW denier sites, and are not familiar with the rebuttals.
    Yes, Eric, in reply to your comment below, I am indeed repeating/referring to work from McIntyre’s open-audit “denier” website, while you are likewise repeating work from the “believers”, at least according to the implications of your own word use.

    Therefore, the proof instead lies in the making of the pudding, and truly interested people should directly observe “the making” by anyone doing it. Note also that McIntyre “takes no position” on the overall validity of CO2 = CAGW itself. He is concerned with “auditing” the data and methods, that is, some important aspects of the “science”, which constitute some of the most important Climate Science pudding, here involving the making of “hockeysticks”.

    ‘Briefly’, McIntyre alleges to show that Briffa’s online response does not refute McIntyre’s previous critique of Briffa’s specific use of the/his methods and data – once finally definitively revealed in Phil Trans B [2008] – as employed in Briffa’s previous analyses, and as referred to and used in support of Climate Sciences’ CO2 = CAGW “hockeysticks” in the ipcc’s AR4.

     
    Briffa’s online response only “moves on” to yet another attempt to find a hockeystick, a chronic hockeystick “team” tactic which also highlights Climate Science’s ongoing, and by now rather apparent desperate need for hockeysticks. ["hockey team" = Mann's, enc., own self-assigned designation.]

    Briffa’s 2009 online, non-”published”, non- “peer reviewed” response also accepts my critique of Climate Science’s unscientific definition of “peer review”: that a study published after a review by a few selected peers ensures the “given truth” of the conclusions from that study, when according to the practice of real scientific method and principle science, it does not and never has!

     
    McIntyre also avers, in the fist link below, that Briffa’s “online article is a big improvement over the previous [published and "peer reviewed"] literature and thus full credit to Briffa and associates for using online publication to improve the standard of presentation of the Yamal chronology from their previous defective presentations in academic journals.”

     
    Thus, as to the “making of the pudding”, a week before his more substantive review of Briffa’s online response [2009], McIntyre highlights the first point above concerning the relevance of Briffa’s online response, and also notes, after explaining it more fully, Briffa’s non-endorsement of the realclimate attacks upon McIntyre’s analyses of Briffa’s previous work to which you also refer.

     
    http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/04/response-to-briffa-2/

     
    For now, I’ll re-iterate the points at the start of this post: that the Briffa response accepts the legitimacy of the issues raised about Yamal at CA and that it does not endorse any of the attacks (or defences) advocated by Gavin Schmidt and realclimate supporters. Both constructive in different ways.

    ————

    Then a week later McIntyre has found that the failure of Briffa’s method to test for population inhomogeneity in any way whasoever, invalidates Briffa’s newer online hockeystick – essentially by allowing for the selection subpopulations of the available cores which will always produce hockeysticks.

     
    http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/11/is-yamal-homogeneous-an-esper-style-answer/

     
    Application of the Esper-style test [by McIntyre] demonstrates Briffa’s failure to carry out any test for population inhomogeneity and demonstrates the futility of the analysis in Briffa’s online post. It also supports the surmise made in my original post – that there was a serious issue with the population inhomogeneity of both the CRU12, now seen to extend into the expanded POR-YAD 22.

     
    Eric, without going on to McIntyre’s analysis of Mann’s own hockeystick and its recurring iterations, including Mann’s most obviously inappropriate use of Tiljander’s proxy data “upside down” and including the Tiljander-asserted contaminated “modern” data, it, too, will be found to be similarly non-”robust” according to real scientific method and principle science.

    That is, if one does in fact check out the actual “making of the hockeystick puddings.”

  • trashman

    Reply to Eric below: Both China and India are overpopulated and need sources of energy for development. Both governments recognize that fossil fuels are a problem, and are pursuing energy sources that don’t emit GHG’s. China is a leader in producing solar power systems and is pursuing nuclear power as well.  India is interested in nuclear power as well.

    China and India are/were indeed happy to accept solar and wind power subsidies [also constituting the all important, even apparently salvational and curative - as per Mike Hulme's "obscene wealth inequality" whose elimination will allegedly cure the alleged CO2 = CAGW "disease" all by itself - "green" transfers of wealth] from the developed nations, while vigorously pursuing their own rationally based construction of essentially as many coal-fired electricity plants as possible, based, of course, upon their own scientific evaluation as to what actually constitutes a real ”disease”, its “cause”, and its cure; evaluations which directly contradict those of ipcc-style “Climate Science”, at least in the eyes of anyone who takes what they propose seriously, that is, scientifically and with a view towards the best way forward for Humanity.

    Nuclear power is, of course, also a very rational solution, even to the alleged CO2 = CAGW “disease”, for any nation desiring to in fact progress as to lifestyle/wealth creation - especially as compared to an otherwise static or regressive de-development proposed by the Kyoto Protocols - and face future challenges, including to “climate” and weather!

  • http://www.wottsupwiththat.com Ben

    Trashman cries “victory!” as he scuttles back into the shadows. Congratulations on winning the race to the bottom at the Chronicle of “Higher” Education.

    Your so-called arguments here are unsubstantiated juvenilia and sadly you match Peter Wood in your determined blindness to logic and factual criticism.