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September 22, 2008

New Poll on Obama's Race Problem

(Opinion crossposted from Brainstorm)

What impact will race/racism have on the Presidential election — and its outcome?

That seems to be the $64,000 question these days. And the answer is, simply put, we don’t know. Pollsters aren’t confident they can poll for it, and nobody is sure if the hundreds of thousands of new voters make that issue more or less “academic.”

There are clearly Americans who will use race as part of the justification (at least to themselves and in non-mixed social company) for voting the way they do this November, but nobody knows how to confidently quantify the tiny segment of the electorate that will allow race to be THE deciding factor for them — or even just one of several key variables they privilege.

There is a new poll out today that seems to add more fuel to this fire about the potential political significance of race/racism — and of racially divergent perceptions of race/racism in contemporary America.

Thankfully, racism in America isn’t what it used to be — brash, bold, and conspicuously displayed in the public sphere. It no longer announces itself unabashedly with “whites only” placards or through painted lines separating the backs from the fronts of public buses. Explicit racism has been demonized and marginalized. And most Americans consider that a profoundly good thing. However, with the election numbers being as close as they are this year, the new study seems to imply that America’s racist margins (no matter how relatively small) might still have a palpable impact on its political center. (And that’s exactly why I wrote my new book, Racial Paranoia, a book that helps to explain why the Stanford poll found what it did.)

What’s race got to do with the election? In some ways, not much. But it might not take a lot to tip such a tight scale one way or the other.

(The discussion in the video I embedded above downplays the ultimate significance of race’s impact on the election and of the potential significance of that so-called “Bradley Factor.”)

John L. Jackson Jr. | Posted on Monday September 22, 2008 | Permalink

Comments

1. There is an awful lot of discussion as to whether racism might cause Obama to lose this election but almost no discussion as to whether racism and/or Obama’s race caused him to get the nomination. I submit that, were Obama white, all else equal, he would not have even been a contender for the nomination. He certainly would not have been selected for a high-profile speaking slot at the 2004 DNC.

   http://rightwingprofessor.blogspot.com/

   — rightwingprofessor    Sep 22, 01:09 PM    #

2. So much for people voting for the candidate with whom they most closely identify. People are not even allowed to do that without being considered “racist.” Amazing age in which we live!

   — Alabama    Sep 22, 01:19 PM    #

3. I didn’t think intelligent voters would decide on the candidate “with whom they most closely identify” on the basis of that candidate’s physical appearance. There are a few other characteristics that actually matter.

   If your views are closer to McCain/Palin than Obama/Biden, and you vote for McCain, no, that doesn’t make you a racist. You’re something, but not a racist.

   — swish    Sep 22, 03:00 PM    #

4. Sooner or later this nation has to excise the cancer of racism which has afflicted America for three centuries. In Obama we have the best hope ever of finally curing Americans of racism. He is intelligent,
   balanced, prudent, and compassionate. We need him.

   By the way I am white.

   — NJH    Sep 22, 03:19 PM    #

5. You know, if this country votes for a guy who finished at the bottom of his class at a third rate college over a guy who finished at the top of the best university in the world—-and they do that because for no other good reason except the second guy was black—-well, in the immortal words of the Rev. Wright, goddamn America. And it will get everything it deserves, which will be its financial destruction before the white guy even has a chance to run for a second term.

   — DeeDee Pontiac    Sep 22, 03:24 PM    #

6. I wish Obama would stop scratching his nose while making a speech. Or is he picking his nose?
   Andyway, He sure is playing the race card just like he did against Hillary the most qualified person in the race this year.

   — fred douglas    Sep 22, 03:35 PM    #

7. I think I got a real glimpse at Obabma’s stealth problem from my own mother and sister. My sister said she just doesn’t trust him “for some reason.” And my mother says she just thinks he’s secretly a Muslim. Now neither of these women is dimwitted or racist in any overt, obnoxious way. Yet clearly there is some information filter at work here, and it’s my guess my mother and sister, though very special, are not very unique.

   p.s. Fred Douglas: Show your work, cite an example.

   — BertW    Sep 22, 03:37 PM    #

8. It is certain that if Obama weren’t Black (or more accurately, multi-racial or largely of Arab extraction) the American public, even the most liberal media, wouldn’t have given him 5 minutes’ notice when up against Hillary or any other pro.

   — Bob    Sep 22, 03:41 PM    #

9. There is little need for NJH to add the caveat, “By the way, I am white.” Few blacks believe that the election of a black president is going to cure Americans of racism.

   By the way, I am black.

   — publius 12    Sep 22, 03:41 PM    #

10. This is timely – I spoke with an acquaintance over the weekend who told me that her husband can’t stand McCain/Palin (or the Republican agenda) but is voting for them anyway because he refuse to have a black President. As she relayed this, his words were “we need an American in the White House not an AfroAmerican.” Yes, folks, racism does still exist.

    — JD    Sep 22, 03:49 PM    #

11. JD – interesting. My goddaughters’ parents (moderate white Republicans) are supporting Obama. When I asked their 8 year old who she supports, she said “Obama.” “Why?” I asked. She said, “Because Americans have been President. It is time for an African-American to have a turn.” Out of the mouths of babes.

    But really folks: what we need is a President who is intelligent, thoughtful, and articulate; one with integrity, good judgment and the ability to inspire average Americans to step up to the plate and help address our problems. There is only ONE candidate in this race who possesses those characteristics: Obama. His race is irrelevant. And shame on us if he loses this election.

    — DJW    Sep 22, 05:01 PM    #

12. It’s not Obama’s “race problem,” it’s America’s race problem. By the way, if Obama’s mother is white and he was raised by his white grandparents, perhaps the fact that he is described as “black” speaks to the “one drop” racism that is at the heart of the US philosophy of white supremacy.

    As for “qualified,” W and Sarah Palin take all meaning out of that term, and demonstrate that white people, like any dominant group, will always find a way to make those who are like them “qualified.”

    — Tomas de Cali    Sep 22, 05:09 PM    #

13. By the way, Right Wing Professor, do you think Sarah Palin was selected because she is the best qualified, or because she is white, a woman, and a Christian?

    Again, it’s interesting that when a person of color rises to the top, it is because s/he is of color. When, however, a mediocre white person emerges—choose W, McCain, or Palin—questions about “qualifications” never arise.

    One can only imagine the outcry if Obama had graduated at the bottom of his class, committed adultery and deserted a disabled wife, or if his teen daughter was pregnant….

    — Tomas de Cali    Sep 22, 05:40 PM    #

14. To some extent religion has become a substitute for racism. I suspect that many poorly educated rural whites (those whom Obama has the most difficult reaching) actually think most blacks are Muslims. Others — the right wing storm troops on the Internet, for example — fan the lie of Obama’s being a Muslim because they do not wish openly to betray their racism.

    In any event, the slander that is based on racial bigotry is disgraceful, but the perpetrators get called on it only by the best media (NYTimes, Wash Post, LA Times, etc), whose readers are mostly the type who will vote for Obama anyway. The ignorant continue to believe Obama is a Muslin, and they subscribe to all that is said negatively about him and his race because of where they choose to get their (mis)information. We cannot reach them through the elite media. Trickle down communication does not work any more than does trickle down economics.

    A twin issue to racism is the steady march of the country toward fascism. Examine the views of McCain and Palin, and more importantly those who are at the core of their support, and try to disregard what is happeniing. One is tempted to suggest that Palin is fascism’s majorette. I never thought I would witness myself saying or writing something that may sound so extreme, but this election has me frightened.

    — case hardened    Sep 22, 05:45 PM    #

15. Race plays an important part in our society. However, for the same reason, Obama is a candidate for the presidency of the United States. Many people vote for him because he is an African American. If it is a white man, they will not vote.

    — kvc    Sep 23, 12:17 AM    #

16. Hillary got 78% of the white vote in South Carolina and Obama got 98% of the Black vote. Now you tell me who elected him in SC where almost 50% of the voters were Black. It became a black thing in the black community and Obama pretended not to know about that. Did you see John Lewis, a long time friend and ally of Hillary, changing sides as he sweated and cried. He changed sides to Obama because of one reason he is black. So Obama plays the race card and then denies it.

    — fred douglas    Sep 23, 06:51 AM    #

17. Swish: Wow, talk about liberal bias in academe, since when is identity just about race? What a conclusion to jump to. Intelligence = voting liberal and all others are voting based on race. Now there is the ultimate in biased thinking (as well as a non sequitur).

    — Alabama    Sep 23, 09:07 AM    #

18. Bob (#8): “largely of Arab extraction”? Who’s that?
    I cannot see how anyone who is in the field of education can examine the platforms, expressed views, backgrounds, actions, and abilities of the two sets of candidates, plus the platforms of their parties, and come up with ANY reason for voting Republican in this election. Barack Obama was not my first choice of Democrats because politically I am more to the left than he, but he is my candidate now, and I am proud to say so. Perhaps race has figured into my view, but only in the sense that his racial composition has given him a deeper and more complete understanding of the “American” experience than any single-race or single-
    culture candidate can claim. Other than that, I’m going with the ticket that represents intelligence, perspective, multiple levels of experience, concern for the future of the country and the planet, respect for fellow Americans, respect for other countries and cultures, the willingness to learn, and a commitment to the Constitution. That spells Obama/Biden.

    — RA    Sep 23, 09:33 AM    #

19. RA you need to know who you are planning to vote for! “Largely of Arab extraction” is a descriptor that fits Obama! I am an African-American woman and I am voting for the best qualified candidate (of the two): John McCain. I am not subscribing to the myth that Barack Obama is the most qualified candidate. Or, that if Obama loses it is because of racism. I vote based on the facts and being a junior Senator does not qualify one to be the President of the United States. Further, it is a fact that V.P. candidate Gov. Sarah Palin has more experience in governance than Presidential candidate Obama. That fact just kills the liberals.

    — RLD    Sep 23, 12:02 PM    #

20. I think this race thing is way overdrawn. Sure, there’s going to be some hardcore KKK’rs and haters that can’t stand Obama, but not enough to alter the election. The rest of the country? Hell, they elect black mayors, black governors, black legislators. They cheer black quarterbacks, pitchers and point guards. I believe that 99% of Americans are decent, kindly souls who’ll lend a hand to anyone, regardless of color, and if they’ll do that, they’ll surely vote for anyone.

    — My Soap Opera    Sep 23, 02:53 PM    #

21. I saw interviews (on camera) of several people during the Ford/Corker senate race in Tennessee who said “I just can’t see voting for a black man.” You tell me why any lower socioeconomic status white person would vote republican when republican policy/action routinely ignores their interests. They are the largest portion of the population and they get the least attention because they don’t vote their interests.

    — om    Sep 23, 03:25 PM    #

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