July 3, 2008
How Amazon.com May Predict the Next President
Can researchers divine the presidential election by studying books? At least a couple of them are trying.
Valdis E. Krebs, a founder of orgnet.com, a company that performs social-network analysis, has spent time categorizing books sold on Amazon.com to identify political trends in purchasing patterns. His discoveries include the fact that an increasing number of books are drawing interest among buyers on both the left and the right. His data also show that books by George Will and Patrick Buchanan, both well known as outspoken conservatives, are being taken home by buyers in his politically-neutral category.
The pattern could reflect efforts by the two major-party candidates, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain, to position themselves toward the political center, Mr. Krebs wrote on his blog, TNT — The Network Thinker. It also could help confirm reports of a split on the political right between “old conservatives” and the “neocons,” he said. “The buying data shows that the old conservatives have more overlap with the progressives than they do with the neocons.”
But Micah L. Sifry, a campaign-finance activist who teaches at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, says he has looked at Mr. Krebs’s data and has found a unifying explanation that might bode well for Mr. Obama: The books finding buyers on both the left and the right often reflect an opposition to the Iraq war.
“They may not be progressives,” Mr. Sifry said of the buyers in the middle category identified by Mr. Krebs, “but they are definitely antiwar.”
Paul Basken | Posted on Thursday July 3, 2008 | PermalinkComments
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How on Earth the preference of those who read books correlate with the majority of voters?
— Mark de Goz Jul 3, 05:06 PM #
YES WE CAN! Go OBAMA
— Laurel Jul 3, 05:09 PM #
“The books finding buyers on both the left and the right often reflect an opposition to the Iraq war”? Then today’s action by GOBACK OBAMA! YES WE CAN!! to retreat from his pledge to end the war as soon as possible must be throwing sneeze-powder into the winds of change!
— Trancel Ruckus Jul 3, 05:36 PM #
And next we shall hear that s/he bought the last election —- s/he did so by buying the books? Right?
— zahid Jul 4, 06:21 AM #