March 20, 2008
Young Pennsylvania Voters Split Between Clinton and Obama, Poll Finds
Hillary Rodham Clinton has a significant, and growing, lead over Barack Obama among likely voters in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary, according to a new poll being released today by Franklin & Marshall College.
Over all, 51 percent of likely voters who were polled said they would vote for Mrs. Clinton, and 35 percent said they would support Mr. Obama. That was double the lead Mrs. Clinton had in a similar poll conducted in February. Pennsylvania’s primary is scheduled for April 22.
Unlike in many other states, Mr. Obama does not hold an advantage over Mrs. Clinton among young voters in Pennsylvania, according to the poll, which was based on interviews conducted March 11-16 of 464 registered Democrats in the state. The poll’s sample error was plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Among likely Democratic voters ages 18 to 34, the two candidates received equal support. Forty-five percent of those polled said they planned to vote for Mrs. Clinton, and 45 percent said they planned to back Mr. Obama.
The poll showed that Mrs. Clinton held an advantage over Mr. Obama with likely voters of all education levels, with her greatest lead coming among those who had not attended college and her slimmest advantage among those with a college degree. In that latter category, in which Mr. Obama has often led Mrs. Clinton in many other states, 46 percent of poll respondents said they favored Mrs. Clinton versus 43 percent who said they would vote for Mr. Obama.
Sara Hebel | Posted on Thursday March 20, 2008 | PermalinkComments
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I am sorry to report that we Democrats in Pennsylvania are deeply divided over who should be the party’s nominee. Sadly, religion and race have been injected into the contest as if they were important issues—which they are not, unless one wishes to play on deeply held prejudice and ignorance. Prejudice and ignorance seem to be alive and well here in Pennsylvania. I must say that I am disgusted to find how strong such forces are and to see members of the party in which I am registered fanning the flames of hatred. Doing so only strengthens the opposing party’s chances to win the November election. Members of the Democratic party are doing all they can to counteract unifying forces and replace hope with fear. This is the kind of politics that breeds apathy and enui. When the ruling administration has followed such incredibly destructive and diasterous policies, and we have been helpless to put an end to this regime, how can we follow such a self-destructive course? The Democratic primary campaign pits hope of constructive change against what seems to be blind ambition. That can’t be good. I do not see how the Democratic party can survive the strife it is going through now. I am shocked and dismayed by partisan politics, and I will not support people whose primary stragegy for winning is tearing down the opponent. This is shameful behavior and will surely run the country even further into the ground.
— Joe Erwin Mar 20, 05:25 PM #
If Pennsylvania voters want the truth they should check out other media sources. The White House papers Hillary was forced to releace (She did not do it voluntarily) show proof that she lied to voters in Ohio and other states about NAFTA. Don’t you want the truth before you vote?
— Shadow Mar 20, 05:39 PM #
How can the intentions of a sample size of 454 registered voters be an indicator of the entire population of young voters in Pennsylvania? Even an undergraduate statistics course would expose the flaws of this poll.
— Tommy Mar 20, 05:59 PM #
I’m am concerned that too many voters will make their decision on superficial knowledge of the candidates. Hillary Clinton is doing the only thing she can do to win the nomination—which is to tear down Barack Obama in every possible way. That is the only way she can win. The strategy is to win at any cost—the country be damned. She cannot win it on merit. Her claims of experience are greatly exagerated—essentially indicating that being the first lady of the US and of Arkansas qualifies as executive experience. Her claim of experience does not ring true, and has only gained traction because it has been repeated so often. Guess what! Tearing down one’s opponent works! His numbers go down a lot. Her numbers go up a little. McCain gains against them both. What a wonderful message this sends to young people who see a glimmer of hope for progress based on unified and constructive cooperation accross party lines! Within party bickering is sinking hopefulness for constructive change. How can we allow this to happen? What is Hillary thinking?
— Joe Erwin Mar 20, 06:12 PM #
So the polls are favoring Hillary. Comments 1-4 are acceptably misogynistic while downplaying the obviously racist comments of Reverend Wright. What a double standard! I for one am glad that Hillary stayed in the race and that she will now more than likely be the Democratic nominee. She is already outpolling McCain. At this point, BO is not even a viable Vice Presidential candidate.
— mary Mar 20, 07:31 PM #
To #5, Please specify the “obviously racist comments” of Rev. Wright. Rev. Wright did not advocate the persecution of White people. What specifically is offending you? Rev. Wright is bitter, but he isn’t the only bitter person in the world. He served in the U.S. Marines and the Navy (in the 1960s) and so perhaps he experienced some things that weren’t pleasant, to put it mildly. At least he didn’t act out his bitterness the way Timothy McVey did. I’m fine with people talking about what they resent, as opposed to blowing up a building and killing innocent men, women, and children.
I don’t believe Sen. Clinton will be the nominee, but if she is, some people, including myself, are thinking about not voting at all, or voting for John McCain. Until the Clintons divided the Democratic Party, I had always been a loyal Democrat. If she is the nominee, I’ll try to hold my nose and vote for her, but there is a good chance I want vote at all, and your comments don’t help. If she is the nominee, the only way she’ll get the votes of a lot of other Democrats is if Obama is on the ticket. It sure is the only sure way she’ll get mine.
— Ve Mar 20, 08:16 PM #
Excuse my typo in the earlier post, To #5, Please specify the “obviously racist comments” of Rev. Wright. Rev. Wright did not advocate the persecution of White people. What specifically is offending you? Rev. Wright is bitter, but he isn’t the only bitter person in the world. He served in the U.S. Marines and the Navy (in the 1960s) and so perhaps he experienced some things that weren’t pleasant, to put it mildly. At least he didn’t act out his bitterness the way Timothy McVey did. I’m fine with people talking about what they resent, as opposed to blowing up a building and killing innocent men, women, and children.
I don’t believe Sen. Clinton will be the nominee, but if she is, some people, including myself, are thinking about not voting at all, or voting for John McCain. Until the Clintons divided the Democratic Party, I had always been a loyal Democrat. If she is the nominee, I’ll try to hold my nose and vote for her, but there is a good chance I won’t vote at all, and your comments don’t help. If she is the nominee, the only way she’ll get the votes of a lot of other Democrats is if Obama is on the ticket. It sure is the only sure way she’ll get mine.
— Ve Mar 20, 08:18 PM #
Apparently, Mary (#5) is still stuck with the politics of the past, which is simply to resort to superficial things and labelling without giving any deep thoughts to real issues. Debating Mary’s comments about Rev. Wright is not even worth the time. It would seem that the only way Mary, and people with similar thoughts, will be satisfied is for Obama to say that he wrote the script for Rev. Wright and as such he will withdraw from the race so that Hilary Clinton wins. That doesn’t seem to make much sense at all. So the question then is “what do Mary and others like her want to happen now?”
I got news for them: This is America’s last chance to redeem itself. Remember other great societies in the past that collapsed not because they could not do anything about it. They collapsed because the people’s narrow-mindedness at the time would not let them see the real problems that were facing them until it was too late. Here is America’s last chance … Obama.
Finally, I am not sure if Mary has given any thougths to the fact that the youths, new voters, and other independent-minded groups that came out in full force for the primaries may decide to skip the November vote (me included) if they feel that they have been “super-delegated” out of a primary election process,….yes, from a Democratic party. Sounds like an oxymoron….Democratic party being undemocratic? Yup…
— Really Concerned Mar 20, 08:23 PM #
Hillary may be leading right now, but history shows her lead diminishes by election day.
I live in Central PA and hear something different than the current polls show. I am not discouraged – Hillary’s “transparency” and “experience” will help Obama win the nomination.
— Susan Mar 20, 10:20 PM #
Bad, bad news for Obama. If he’s not pulling the full young vote, he’s dead in the water. Slick Barry has lost his touch, and Hillary will dominate the rest of the way.
— Figueroa Slim Mar 20, 11:45 PM #
Many of us want to have hope, here in central PA. And we do see independents and moderate republicans and young people favoring Obama. But we also have entrenched party figures, like Governor Rendell, working all the party machinery for Clinton. This is a closed primary, so, without changing party registration, republicans and independents cannot vote for Obama (or Clinton) in the primary. The last day to register or change registration is MON 24 MAR. I have been saying for a long time that I would support the party’s nominee, but I’m changing my mind about that. If Hillary wins the nomination as a result of tearing down Obama, which is the only way she can win, because she cannot win on her own merit, I do not intend to vote for her. Why is anyone surprised about the Rev. Wright? We all know that African-Americans have been, and continue to be, seriously discriminated against, and that it makes many of them angry and some of them paranoid—just as many whites have paranoid prejudices against blacks. Anybody want to review a few episodes of Tony Brown’s Journal?
— Joe Erwin Mar 21, 07:15 AM #
Figueroa Slim (#10)…you wish.
Elections are won with results from the electorate. Obama is leading in delegate-count and popular votes. Those are hard facts. Clinton’s surrogates can spin all they want about this poll or that poll. It is not going to work. Americans are finally waking up from their misplaced trust of “professional” politicians who are not interested in getting anything done, i.e. anything that will empower Americans to think for themselves.
Sorry to disappoint you #10. Polls are not the “hard facts on the ground”.
— Really Concerned Mar 21, 12:52 PM #
Obama will lose the vote of blue collar white males in Pennsylvania because in his speech he came across as an ingrate. He dissed his grandmother as a racist one day and called her a typical white person the next. Obama may think he has risen above race but the people of Pennsylvania know where he really stands.
— Duscany Mar 21, 02:57 PM #
Reverend Wright’s comments about Hillary Clinton never having a cab pass her by were not only racist, they were misgynistic, as are the comments and the continuing gender baiting of the BO camp. I for one could not vote for BO if he is the nominee, because I have lived and worked on the South Side of Chicago for 12 years and seen nothing accomplished for the poverty stricken and crime ridden neighborhoods there. BO is all talk, talk, talk, and posturing. I can’t wait for the tapes of Michelle Obama to be released. The Republicans are just sitting on them, and hoping BO gets the nomination, then they can really swiftboat BO and his rhetoric of “hope” and “healing.”
— mary Mar 21, 03:45 PM #
To #14, I asked you to give a statement of Rev. Wright’s that was racist. Inasmuch as you are unable to provide an answer, you say something that doesn’t even make sense. Are you saying that cabs HAVE passed Hillary Clinton by on the street just because she was White or just because she was a woman and Rev. Wright refuses to acknowledge it? I don’t believe even Hillary Clinton would tell that lie. You have an odd definition of “racist.” It certainly doesn’t come from the dictionary.
You’re even more bitter than Rev. Wright. I understand why he and others like him are resentful. I know American history. I’m just wondering about you.
I don’t even believe you are a supporter of Clinton. You’re probably just trying to antagonize people so that if she does get the nomination, most of Obama’s supporters won’t vote for her, which would make you a McCain supporter. You don’t have to do this, because Sen. Clinton has done a good job of that without your assistance.
And if you really have lived and worked on the South Side of Chicago and nothing has been accomplished, don’t blame Obama for your inability to get anything done. Perhaps you should leave, if you aren’t accomplishing anything.
To #13, YOU said Obama’s grandmother was racist, NOT Obama. I’ve had too many White women tell me of the same fear of Obama’s grandmother. I don’t think those “typical” women are racist. I think they are afraid and I also understand why. Therefore, we (Black, White, Latino, etc.) have to heal ourselves and living in the past is not going to help any of us.
— Ve Mar 21, 06:16 PM #
The issue is that, as much as I love Hillary, she cannot win at this point. I am voting Obama to end this mess so we can start on the General Election. Hillary staying in hurts th party.
— Hill Man Mar 22, 09:59 AM #
Hillary and Bill Clinton are destroying the Party. Hillary had long ago hit the ceiling as to her positive. So they are systematically tearing Obama down. They have used every insult and trick in the book to lower his rating. Most of Hillary’s claims about being ready on day one and vast experience are utter nonsense. She was auditioning for travel agent’s job, when she claims to have traveled to 80 some countries. Were they done at tax payer’s expense? Another outrageous claim is that she brought peace to Northern Ireland. Hi, being a tourist does not help here. Bill and Hillary had 8 years to test their ideas. Result – no universal healthcare. It is time for someone more skillful and open to try. It is way past the time for Hillary to quit and support the Democratic nominee. If she ended up destroying the party someone should challenge her in New York, when the time comes. We all now know she supported NAFTA and lied about it in Ohio.People of Pennsylvania, please do us all a favor. Give a wind to Obama and we can all move on to November.
— George Mar 24, 01:17 AM #
Hilliary can win if pennslyvannia and other states support her she needs and deserves thier support, the change Obama is talking about is not what most people will want, Bill Clinton was very good on the economy and so will Hiiliary without all this other garbage we don’t need! people just need to get in her corner, she’s s fighter and that what we need a fighter not someone who’s goes along with anything to get votes! BE SMART!
— sonya rogers Mar 24, 05:47 PM #
I just want to say, that one day i hope we can have a more p-e-r-f-e-c-t- union.
— Dee Mar 24, 06:19 PM #
I find it fascinating that the Obama followers whine about Hillary dissing Obama all the while those same Obama supporters demonize Hillary. Of the 25 million voters who have voted, why is it you want to continue to alienate nearly 13 million of them? This race is really tight and if Obama is truly your guy, why aren’t you courting Hillary supporters? You simply cannot win the general election without them. Frankly the vetting that Obama has gotten in the primaries is kindergarten compared to what he’ll get in the general election. You all should be thanking Hillary for the preparation in the real world of big-time politics.
— libertylady Mar 28, 12:00 AM #
I find the comments interesting however inaccurate. President Clinton did not create the economy of the 90“s. We have an internet bubble. Most voters are unformed about the issues, we do not have the correct information to make those educated assessments. However, looking at the Clinton administration what is it that was so wonderful that happened.
We are now in 2008 the government has serious problems and Hillary wastes everyones time with hateful behavior unbecoming of a former first lady. The Clinton’s do not belong in the white House they had their chance. What are the people of PA worried about? We have a machine in Washington that is broken and will ruin us if we do not make serious changes. 35 years of experience has brought us to this point.
— Julie Mayer Mar 28, 12:09 PM #