The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (www.civicyouth.org) has posted early results for the youth vote, but because so many votes remain to be counted, it’s too early to make a judgment about turnout. CIRCLE’s exit polling puts the absolute number at 21.6 to 23.9 million 18-to-29-year-olds in the tally. The figures will narrow down once all precincts are in 100 percent and absentee ballots are counted.
That means a rise of 2.2 million or more, which sounds like a lot. But part of the gain may be attributed to the raw size of the age demographic in America, which is the largest one since the Baby Boomers. By percentage, the gain looks different. Right now, CIRCLE projects the youth vote as rising anywhere from 1 to 6 points over 2004 (the ratio is calculated as the fraction of total eligible citizens who actually cast a ballot). That puts the 2008 youth vote at 49.3 percent to 54.5 percent.
It’s an open question. If the figures terminate at the lower end, a 1-to-2 percent gain over 2004, then all the predictions about the youth vote this time coming out in droves like never before sound pretty darn hollow and hype-like. If the figures terminate at the higher end, 4-to-5 percent, then we do indeed have a real civic story.
No matter what the final rate is, however, the partisanship of the youth vote this time is altogether historic. CIRCLE: “Young voters favored the winner of this election by more than a two-to-one margin,” an “unprecedented” gap. In the previous eight elections, the gap between the youth vote and older groups was only 1.8 percentage points. This time it exceeds 10 percent.
That makes the youth vote a serious partisan problem for Republicans. They can’t run a national candidate any more who doesn’t relate to the young. And from what I’ve seen of the social attitudes of Millennials in particular, the two-to-one slant poses a threat to one of the core constituencies of the party: social conservatives. Young people today like leaders to appeal to their uniqueness, their potential, their talents. They don’t like leaders, or any older adults for that matter, to come off as coercive or didactic (this applies to political correctness as well as social conservatism). So, as long as social conservatives have so much influence on the Republican Party, and as long as the youth cohort votes in plus-50-percent numbers, party leaders should prepare for a long perambulation in the desert.
