As has been often remarked, the Millennials made a difference in the 2008 election. Not because of their increased turnout, which went up only two points despite all the grand predictions of six-, seven-, and eight-point bounces from 2004. Rather, it was because the 18-to-29-year-olds went for Obama 2-to-1.
Well, a recent report from Pew Research shows the favoritism for the left slipping fast. Here is the finding from the first paragraph:
“The Democratic advantage over the Republicans in party affiliation among young voters, including those who ‘lean’ to a party, reached a whopping 62 percent to 30 percent margin in 2008. But by the end of 2009 this 32-point margin had shrunk to just 14 points: 54 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican.”
Obama’s job approval ratings among the young have plummeted as well. In February 2009, 73 percent of Millennials gave the president a thumbs up. In Feb 2010, the rate stands at 57 percent. That puts them as the age group most in support of Obama (Gen X and Baby Boomers came in at 49 percent, the Silent Generation at 38 percent), but still, if the trend doesn’t change, next November looks even worse for the Dems.
More numbers:
In late 2009, 29 percent of Millennials counted themselves “liberal,” 28 percent as “conservative.” Moderates picked up 40 percent. Interestingly, 38 percent of X-ers called themselves conservative and only 20 percent as liberal.


23 Responses to Millennials Heading Rightward
goxewu - March 1, 2010 at 4:41 pm
The shift is probably partly, if not largely, due to the difference between the euphoria of victory and the long slog of your fave not just campaigning and celebrating the first few months in office, but actually having to try to govern the country. Republicans in the campaign and the election were losers, and the young like winning. Republicans since then have been obstructionists (there should be no argument about that, only whether it’s principle or petulance), and the young don’t like de facto deadlocks.Still, there probably wasn’t the same shift in the youth vote after the 2000 election. Eight months after GWB was sworn in, we had September 11th (which didn’t happen, of course, not on his watch), and all political bets were off for a while, as we went to war with a country that had nothing to do with September 11th and had only hallucinatory WMD’s.(Here come the Tea Partiers…)
markbauerlein - March 1, 2010 at 6:07 pm
The full report, goxewu, which is accessed through the link, breaks out the Obama-approval ratings into specific policies. In hleath care, the economy, and Afghanistan, the Millennials have lowered their scoring of Obama significantly.
markbauerlein - March 1, 2010 at 6:09 pm
To be more specific, in July 09, 51% of Millennials approved of Obama policy in Afghanistan. By Jan 10, that figure hit 34%. On the economy, Obama dove from 66% approval to 44% approval.
goxewu - March 1, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Not “excusing” Obama, but there are particular reasons in here, not just the hinted-at subtext that Obama’s proving a failure and that young people are fleeing the sinking ship.Health care: stalemate, nothing getting done, and young people (who prefer mixed martial arts to old-fashioned boxing) want a quick submission. The economy: Dude, we still haven’t got enough spending money (and our parents don’t, either). Afghanistan: Old men make wars that young men have to fight. These are, of course, somewhat caricatured synopses, and I’m sure the pollsters & pundits can nuance the hell of ‘em. Put it this way: What do you think the state of Weimar Ameri…oh, there I go again, editorializing…the country, and the concommitant poll numbers, would be if McCain and Palin were in office?Repairing the stupefying damage that eight years of the Cheney-Bush Administration did to this country is a long-term project that’s probably going to make a lot of people unhappy because it’ll be painful for a lot of people. It might even make so many people unhappy that Obama will be a one-term President. More the pity.(Uh-oh. Here come…I think they’re coming…the Tea Partiers.)
karen19 - March 2, 2010 at 7:22 am
interestingly enough, i bet if you asked these millenials and Xers to articulate the policies of either party, they would be unable to do so with any degree of accuracy. politics in this country has essentially become a popularity contest, and elections have become nothing more than fraternity rush. politics in the US has very little to do with having a deep understanding of the serious issues that afflict us all, nor do people look at the bigger picture or the ramifications of taking a short term approach to problem solving. sooner or later we will all pay if we do not become a more empathic country. if you think what we’re living through is bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet. it is bound to get worse, and that my friends, was not created my the current administration. google TARP to refresh your memories on who enacted that.how quickly we forget that enormous surplus we had in the late 90′s.
luther_blissett - March 2, 2010 at 9:34 am
So Mark, if the Dumbest Generation is losing interest in Obama, doesn’t that tell us the smart money is on him? Or are they only dumb when they disagree with you?
marktropolis - March 2, 2010 at 9:52 am
Mark, I think you’re taking leaps of faith here. Just because so-called Millenials are down on Obama doesn’t mean they’re moving right. If anything, they’re down on Obama because he hasn’t been far enough left. They’re ticked that his doubled-down on Afghanistan, they’re ticked that public options in health care is off the table (although it may be getting back on the table if the Dems decide to not worry about the 60 votes), and they’re ticked that the banks got all that bailout money with no accountability. To quote from the report, “While the Republican Party picked up support from Millennials during 2009, this age group continues to favor the Democratic Party more than do other generations.” If anything, the Democratic/Republican split is settling down to more historic norms (acknowledging that the 2008 election was an anamoly, historically speaking).
markbauerlein - March 2, 2010 at 10:36 am
Good points here by goxewu, karen, and marktropolis. And to answer Luther: no, they still don’t know anything about the Founding, the structure of government, party platforms, etc., whether they agree with me or not. I share their disappointmnent with Obama, less because of his policies and more because of his executive leadership, or rather, his incompetent executive leadership, such as allowing an unappealing, inflexible, non-stop-partisan-cliche-spouting House Speaker to take the lead in selling health care reform (which should have been called from the start “health insurance reform”).
marktropolis - March 2, 2010 at 10:51 am
Wow Mark, since when does the “structure of government” dictate that the President has power over the speaker of the house? And you have the audacity to call her “non-stop-partisan-cliche-spouting” while the GOP sits there and spends the entire year saying “No”? If she’s spouting cliches, then what do you call it when the GOP accuses the Dems of “death panels” killing grandma, and a overall “goverment takeover” of health care. Obama’s spent the better part of the last year trying to empower Congress to talk to each other. The holy grail of bipartisanship. Which for Democrats means collaboration and compromise, but for the GOP means, only if you agree with everything I say. Or, they way it’s played out in the last year: No. No plan. No discussion. But lots of “non-stop-partisan-cliche-spouting.” Obama’s “executive leadership” extends to his cabinet and staff, not the leadership of the House and Senate. Sure, he can be persuasive, and provide leadership on an issue, but he has no “executive” jurisdiction over there. I don’t know, something about the branches of government?
markbauerlein - March 2, 2010 at 11:00 am
This is a tu quoque argument, marktropolis, one of the weakest of the fallacies. I certainly believe that Republicans have their share of partisan cliche-spouters. And I think it pretty well clear that Obama’s management of the health reform agenda has been pretty well incompetent, including the way he has worked with Congress.
marktropolis - March 2, 2010 at 11:27 am
I’m not looking to ignore Obama and his missteps. There have been more than a few. And I’m well aware of many of them. And we can monday-morning-quarterback him all day. That said, he’s got a tough job when the GOP wants to spend all their time saying No, and they have absolutely no desire to have any discussion or actual debate. They would rather spend their time with non-stop-partisan-cliche-spouting. Obama incompetent? In terms of bills passed, last I checked he’s quite possibily the most successful president in recent history. Yeah, he’s tripped a few times on health care – in my view he gave the congress-critters way too much leeway in designing their own legislation. He should have just laid out his proposals (in detail) and worked from there. Live and learn. Now it looks like the Dems are going to push through reconciliation (which probably would not be happening unless Obama gave the green light). Obama has always been driven by fairness, and giving others voices even if they are in the minority. He and Pelosi could have pushed through the public option last summer, but they chose not to in deference to their GOP bretheren. I wouldn’t exactly call that incompetence.If anyone is incompetent here, it’s the GOP leadership who have refused to do anything but say no. As Obama said in his state of the union, “that’s not leadership.” And, like it or not, he’s right.If I’m reading your last post (#10) correctly (Latin notwithstanding) you seem to be making the case that it’s Obama’s fault that we don’t have HCR. I think it gets a little dicey if you look at the White House from 2001-2008 and then call Obama incompetent because he doesn’t do the things that Bush and the GOP majority railed through over eight years (including using budget reconciliation as a tactic to overcome filibusters). Obama is actually trying to play fair (in deference to the idea that he’s not just president of the Democracts, but he’s president of the Republicans as well), and you want to call that incompentent? He may not get it right all the time, but that’s what he’s trying to do.
augustcr - March 2, 2010 at 12:03 pm
It
dank48 - March 2, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Did anyone else see the Q&A President Obama did with the Republicans in Baltimore on 29 January? What a bunch of pathetic “questions” aka talking points, as he (more politely than I would have) discussed. As he also said, it’s not just the GOP; there’s plenty of fault to be found.Until our alleged representatives of both parties in both houses start behaving like adults, I see no reason why the young, the old, or the in-between should even consider voting for them again. I see no reason not to let them know what we think of their pathetic posturing. Frankly, when a stuffed shirt like Mike Pence (Rep. IN) takes five minutes to recite a list of ostensible sins the administration has supposedly committed that he feels are reprehensible, and then Obama points out to him gently that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, it is simply embarrassing.These neocons or whatever they’re calling themselves this week do not represent conservatism, do not represent fiscal responsibility, and do not represent me, regardless of whose district I live in. I’m not young by a long ways, but robots reciting lines they can barely read from their notes, much less understand, will never get my vote. Obama has, like any first-term president, made his share of mistakes. But none of these compare to the mindless nullification of these thumb-sucking stooges. And if that seems ad hominem or just bad manners, watch the session. If I were the head of the Republican National Committee and had just watched that spectacle, I’d be thinking about opening a vein.
markbauerlein - March 2, 2010 at 6:23 pm
Do you really think that Obama is the most successful president in recent history, marktropolis? You think the bailouts, the stimulus, Afghanistan, Iraq, health reform, the Gates arrest, the Olympics in Chicago, the deficit, the number of Goldman Sachs folks around him, Eric Holder’s oft-displayed incompetence, on and on, have been a success?And the fallacy cited was only the weakness of responding to criticisms of Obama with, “Yeah, but look at the Repubs.” I don’t think you’ll find me defending the Republicans anywhere in recent years. In fact, sometimes I think we need a new voting strategy which has only one principle: vote against the incumbent.
suomynona - March 2, 2010 at 9:31 pm
I’m a millennial and I’m pretty sure I know a hell of a lot more about American politics than, for example, my parents, or as another example, pretty much half of Congress. Is it then not true that my personal experience cannot be extrapolated to represent a broader conclusion? But in all seriousness, yes, my generation is pretty dumb. But so are a lot of generations. And so are most people throughout the generations, including most of the small percentage of the American public that even bothers to cast a vote for anything in the first place. These polls may tell us something about how people are behaving, but not much about why, or whether their behavior is warranted. I wouldn’t venture comparisons between the alleged in/competence of a portion of the electorate and the alleged success or failure of the heroes/stooges they’re voting for (for those who have ventured comparisons).I’ve also heard that according to that CQ index, Obama has actually been quite successful getting legislation passed relative to what he proposed to do in his campaign. Whether the passed legislation (to which we will add health reform after many have tried and failed before) will ‘work’ or not is a separate question (and one for the long-term in many cases).A question worth exploring (if it hasn’t already been explored) re. millenials: for all of our schizophrenia and knowledge deficits, are we at least handling the waves upon waves of new-media bullshit–and filtering accordingly–better than other generations as a result of our savviness with remediated ‘texts’? In other words, are we on some levels less likely to buy into kill-your-grandma ads and ‘viral’ e-mail campaigns full of misinformation? Or are we just more distracted by the jazzy music and sound effects and props and blondeness on cable news, suckers like everyone else?
markbauerlein - March 3, 2010 at 8:01 am
I hear you, suomynona, and I agree that you guys have to put up with more media garbage and medacity than any youth group in history, and I don’t envy you the task of filtering it. It may be that economic and civic conditions are getting to be so bad in this country, that the levels of debt and the reach of government into people’s lives are so ominous, that Millennials will live up to the promises of their civic engagement and political activism.
flynnra1 - March 3, 2010 at 4:07 pm
It certainly seems like admiration for Obama among members of my generation (Millennials, or whatever you want to call us) is decreasing (a Valentine’s Facebook e-card stating something like, “I hope your love for me doesn’t fade as quickly as your love for Obama,” is an amusing sign of this), but I don’t know that my generation is really becoming more conservative or really cares all that much about real issues. I agree with others’ comments suggesting that politics are all about popularity and what’s “cool” for the Millennials. I was so disappointed in high school when my friends told me they would not support the gubernatorial candidate I favored because, when they were in elementary school, they had all taken a field trip on which they got to have their pictures taken with the other candidate in front of a race car. I know that was high school, and we’d hope that my peers would have grown up a little and learned something in the six years since then, but I don’t see much evidence of that.
craigberger - March 4, 2010 at 8:38 am
There’s a big problem with Mark’s interpretation of this poll. Mark’s explanation, as indicated in the headline, assumes that drifting away from the Democrats toward the Republicans means that the Millennials are “heading rightward.” That’s not the case.An alternate explanation, one I think much resembles reality, is that young voters, who voted for Obama by a 2-1 margin in 2008, are disillusioned with the political process. Here was a candidate pushing the “Yes We Can” processualist argument – the individual can change society – and here was an optimist generation willing to digest that. But we know governing is not electing. And so when the large numbers of young people new to the political process experience the dissonance described above, there are going to be some who become discouraged. Some of that group will turn away from politics, and others will look toward the Republicans.However, their beliefs have not changed – and that’s the message of the Pew study, subtitled “a pro-government, socially liberal generation.” Their VIEWS did not shift rightward. They’re simply looking for an alternative because of timid Democrats.
markbauerlein - March 4, 2010 at 9:33 am
Yes, Craig, I should have titled this “Millennials Rejecting Obama” instead of “Heading Rightward.”
marktropolis - March 4, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Bauerlein, yes, for the record, I do think Obama is the most successful president in recent history. And apparently, the data bear that out: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122436116“…when you look at the votes of 2009 in which Obama made his preference clear, his success rate was unprecedented, according to John Cranford of Congressional Quarterly.”‘His success was 96.7 percent on all the votes where we said he had a clear position in both the House and the Senate. That’s an extraordinary number,’ Cranford says.”The previous high scores were held by Lyndon Johnson in 1965, with 93 percent, and Dwight Eisenhower, who scored 89 percent in 1953. Cranford notes that George W. Bush’s score hit the high 80s in 2001, the year of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center. But Obama surpassed them all, Cranford says.”
suomynona - March 4, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Thanks to marktropolis for finding the CQ index I was alluding to upthread, but neglected to post.Prof. Bauerlein, I’m often divided re. this relationship between millenials and new media. On one hand it seems to me that we’re more adept at using new media and technology for fact-checking and secondary and tertiary consultations. On the other, it’s perhaps this tendency that undermines our ‘vertical’ understanding of issues and conflicts, leaving us grasping at ‘facts’ that we don’t properly understand in context. Further, I worry that the ‘democratizing’ of information frequently leaves us inept when it comes to deciding which sources are legitimate, or which ‘facts’ are facts. And even further, I worry that we’re already becoming desperately co-opted into systems of information production and delivery that create a market demand among us for sheer bullshit and, simultaneously, a desire among us to be bullshit producers (Web 2.0). From this we have all the data in the world, free of charge, to produce Web 3.0, semantic Web systems that already know what we want to read and buy before we think for ourselves to indicate as much. Then again, we may be better poised than past generations to understand how these things work, and thus to undermine them. I’m not even sure what our politics are, then, along the traditional spectrum. Our is the politics of more.
marktropolis - March 4, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Just for sh*&s and giggles, I went to the Beloit Mindset List. Seeing as a lot of this at least appears to be generational (and maybe less-so technological). Reading through it for the Class of 2013 is helpful just in terms of context (http://www.beloit.edu/mindset/2013.php). The fun part is looking at the list from the Class of 2002 (http://www.beloit.edu/mindset/2002.php). As in pre-9/11. One of my faves from the Class of 2013: “Their folks could always reach for a Zoloft.” But the real kicker is “Someone has always been asking: ‘Was Iraq worth a war?’”I’m at the very early end of the Gen X. As in I think I can call myself an elder statesman of that group. I grew up worrying about nuclear bombs. I grew up understanding what peace was (although perhaps not understanding how to achieve it). Those coming up now have almost a visceral understanding of what permanent war is.Obama came along and gave a crap-load of folks a sense of hope about our future as a country. One year working with Congress, and it’s pretty much all spent. Interestingly, one of the bonuses of the health care summit last week was that I heard a number of disillusioned Obama supporters mention that they were re-committed to his message of hope once they saw him taking on folks like McCain and Alexander. McCain is the epitome of the old-white-guy yelling “get off my lawn!” Obama gave us a response to that. However unrealistic or optimistic it was. The reality is that McCain and all his groupies in the GOP keep saying “get off my lawn!” and stymieing any attempts at fixing things.
markbauerlein - March 4, 2010 at 3:33 pm
A president should not be graded for his success on how many bills he got passed. That is often a measure of whether his party has majorities in Congress, whether the nation perceives foreign threats, and other variables. It also is to assume that the bills that were passed were good bills. Often it takes a little time to determine the impact of legislation.To say that “I do think Obama is the most successful president in recent history” is a bit premature. But then, the way-too-soon anointing of Obama is all part of what liberal columnist Dana Milbank calls the “Cult of Obama,” people whose belief in his “transformative” being leads them into over-the-top assertions against patent evidence to the contrary.