The Ivies, the elite liberal-arts schools, and boutiques like Julliard will undoubtedly have no shortage of applicants in the years to come, but everyone else will feel the pinch of the decreasing universe of 18-year olds, the age of a traditional college applicant. While the number of students applying to college will be going down in the next two decades, so too will the socio-economic background of the student pool. There will be a rise in the number who will be seeking financial aid. The census will include more African-Americans and Hispanics. Even with the expanded aid programs recently introduced at the well-endowed colleges and universities, there will be considerable unmet need.
As our population continues to shift geographically toward the south and west, and new Americans begin to send their children to schools of higher education, a greater number of students will be coming to college with a different perspective about campus life. While serious about getting an education, the new matriculants are also determined to doing it efficiently and cost effectively. Football and Greek life are less decisive for many.
At the same time as the application process for college admission has been streamlined, making it easier for students to complete (e.g. the online common application), the procedures for securing financial aid are no less challenging. In economic downturns, more families apply for aid and the competition for every penny is rigorous. With the current oversight issues surrounding lenders, there are fewer dollars available. With the housing and mortgage crisis, it is also more difficult for families to qualify for home equity loans that were a source of funds used to pay college tuition. Families have fewer places to turn to as they seek to feed the bursar.
Students will be looking for innovative ways to finance their education. They will try to accelerate their studies by attending classes in the summer or will take heavier course loads throughout the year, with the goal of reducing the time needed to complete their degrees. And they will work while they study.
Applications at state universities and colleges, along with community colleges, will increase over the next two decades, for the subsidized tuition price is hard to compete with. Growth in enrollment at state schools, however, will transfer the burden from the one to the many. The individual student will pay less than the cost of the education and the taxpayer will subsidize the bill. In the short run this is good for the individual. In the long run for society.
How are the independent colleges and universities to assist students in their search for competitive tuition or increased financial aid? For some places, innovative work-study programs like the one pioneered by Northeastern University decades ago may be the answer. For others, a regrettable increase in teaching loads in order to temper the expense of faculty salaries may be an unfortunate response. Or larger classes. Also, the reduction of non-academic support services, fewer administrative and support personnel, and a lessening of sports programs lay ahead. But, these unhappy changes will not be sufficient to greatly restrain the rising costs of maintaining educational plants and appropriately compensating personnel. And no, we cannot fire all the administrators.
At the same time that schools try to reduce the consumption of energy, they will concurrently be trying to make campuses more sustainable. No longer can the case be made for simply closing down for the month of January, as so many northeast colleges did during the Carter years to reduce fuel consumption
In many cases, however, the investment needed to retrofit older mechanical systems, or to install alternative sources of energy (solar panels, wind power for those with sufficient available land, new windows, bi-fuel generators, etc.) are substantial and the payback, while considerable, may not be seen for years to come. These cost saving methods will not help the first wave of students feeling the financial aid crunch.
I continue to believe that at least three other changes deserve consideration:
1. A year-round calendar and other similar time related reforms, each tailored to the specific environment of the individual college or university.
2. A baccalaureate degree earned in three rigorous years, as is increasingly true in Europe, not four as is now the case in the U.S., reducing the overall tuition burden on students by at least 25%. This will permit graduate and professional education to follow by a reallocation of time and money.
3. For those schools not already doing so, modifying the course load for students each semester from five three-credit classes to four four-credit classes, an initiative that will improve efficiency and economics. And, properly done will also be academically sound and permit experiential learning experiences. Yes, I know the status quo may be more attractive and has much to recommend it but I don’t believe it is sustainable. (See Washington State University.)
