Declining state appropriations, unstable endowment returns, a projected drop in the number of high-school graduates—there’s no shortage of grim news for higher education of late. But a new analysis from the State University of New York at Albany’s Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government says institutions in the Northeast may be hit harder than the rest.

In a report released on Wednesday, Jason E. Lane, the institute’s director of education studies, argues that data show this gloomy scenario could lead to more closures and consolidations of higher-education institutions in the region.

Mr. Lane based his analysis on data in a recent report from Moody’s Investors Service, which suggested that the negative outlook for higher education is worse than previously thought, and a recent report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. The commission’s report says …

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