In honor of Andrew Sullivan’s post-debate freakout, I re-ran my earlier electoral update. This time, I used polls from after the debate or, if none were available, from before the debate but giving Romney a five-point bounce. Unlike last time, I decided to fill in all the states, because otherwise WHAT KIND OF PUNDITRY IS THIS?
So, again using the tool at 270towin.com, this is the map:
The final score, based off of this map? Obama 276, Romney 262. The debate has certainly thrown the results of the election more into doubt than they have been in a while. A shift of any of the substantial swing states (ie not Nevada, NH, or Iowa) from this allocation from Obama to Romney gives the GOP the victory. Yes, Virginia, I’m looking at you.
* Republicans react to bad news by deciding that the entire world is conspiring against them. Democrats react by having meltdowns and engaging in circular firing squad behavior.**
** Political operatives on both sides are, however, consistent in leaking stories about how they’re not to blame for the way the campaign is going.