To get a sense of the race today, and using the invaluable tool at 270 to win, I awarded all the swing states in which either candidate is polling on average more than 5 points or more ahead of their opponent (actually, Romney is not ahead by five points or more in any of the swing states, so it was just Obama). The result was this map:
Doing it that way, the electoral college tally as of today is Obama 265, Romney 191, five short of an Obama victory.
(The latest Republican meme, by the way is that the polls are desperately skewed in Obama’s favor, owing to a large-scale conspiracy of the MSM. This conspiracy apparently includes Fox, which is apparently rejecting its role as part of the vast rightwing conspiracy. There is now a site to unskew the polls, which, not shockingly, has Romney substantially ahead. I am reminded of the fall of 2004, when Democrats religiously insisted the same thing about the Bush-Kerry polls.)