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McCain Leaps Ahead!

September 11, 2012, 7:12 pm

From the ABC affiliate in Raleigh-Durham, NC, September 9, 2008:

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.

There were oddities in that survey (crosstabs here), including a shift of Obama’s support among women from being 2 points ahead of McCain to being 12 points behind, and Obama winning the 18-34 vote by only 3 points. In the end, Obama won North Carolina by a narrow margin.

From NC Civitas, September 10, 2012:

In the wake of the Republican National Convention, a Civitas Institute Flash Poll found that Republican candidate Mitt Romney took a 10 percentage-point lead over President Obama.

The Flash Poll of 500 registered North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 4-6 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4.5 percent. Asked if the election for President were held today who they would vote for, 53 percent chose Romney and 43 percent chose Obama.

The pollster? SurveyUSA, again. There are oddities in the crosstabs of this one, as well. The 18-34 vote goes Romney by 21 percentage points, and the poll has Obama winning a higher percentage of white votes than he did in 2008. But the overwhelmingly strange result is the racial breakdown, which has 30% of African-Americans in the survey claiming that they would vote for Romney (by contrast, a PPP poll of North Carolina, released the same day, has African-Americans preferring Obama 89-8%). That would be a higher percentage than any Republican candidate has received in a presidential election since 1960, by my estimation.

The masses on Twitter reacted to the 2012 poll with straight reporting, hope (Republicans), or mockery (everyone else).

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