The tone of things is subtly different in Havana this spring. I was last in Cuba a year ago, but I keep up on a regular basis with individuals and institutions there. Still, it is hard to know what is changing. Clearly the accession of Raul Castro to formal power has objectified what everyone has known for more than a year now — that a transition has begun. But what is not at all clear is where the transition is headed. Away from Fidel’s charismatic and personal leadership, for sure, but toward what new end? Raul is, after all, older than John McCain, and no one expects a dynastic transition. There is little talk of a “transition to democracy,” but a great deal of speculation as to where Raul’s known sympathy for some market reform might lead.

Most people expect expansion of private ownership in market farming, to respond to real economic need. There is some talk of expansion of cooperatives, and taking the Vietnamese (rather than the Chinese) market reform model. Everyone is talking about currency reform, and those who do not benefit from the current preferential treatment for hard currency (the peso convertible or CUC) are looking toward a unification of the Cuban currency. But overt change is not visible, apart from the disappearance from the streets of Havana of the monstrous camel-like double buses (camelos), which have been replaced by equally huge but shiny new Chinese buses — Raul saw from the start that improvements were necessary in public transport.

One clear change is in the appearance of open discussion of serious public issues. The most recent issue of the best-known intellectual journal, Temas (Themes) was devoted to an impressive and heavy-duty series of articles on the prospects for transition in Cuba. Not long ago the term “transition” was in itself unacceptable. Another change is the prevalence of concern about the lack of optimism among young people. I was told more than once that university students now feel unsure as to whether there is a future for them, and this is a serious matter in a country that has placed so many pesos and hopes in its fine educational system. The universities are beginning new outreach programs, training part time professors to lead adult education classes in public schools and other venues around the country.

And, finally, there is clear concern about demography, since the real population of the island has fallen for the first time. The causes, I gather, are both declines in the birth and death rates, and immigration. The Cuban population can for the moment no longer sustain itself.

So there is a lot to think about in Havana. I was impressed, as I always have been, by the quality of the people running the institutions I deal with. They seem quietly confident about the country’s future. But it is hard not to think that changes of a significant sort will not begin shortly. Fidel Castro is ill and 81 years old. There will be a new American president in less than a year — and at least one of the candidates has made it clear that he favors a renegotiation of the Cuban-U.S. relationship. It would take only executive action to remove several significant obstacles to enhanced interaction with Cuba. And I am hoping that we will see exactly that.