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May 18, 2010, 03:00 PM ET
The Real Value of College
With Jacques Steinberg's piece in last Sunday's Times (Plan B: Skip College), the "Is college really worth it?" meme seems to be in full flower, in part because it's an interesting issue and in part because the media suffers from a fatal weakness for novelty and counterintuition. But most of these discussions suffer from confusion about what question they're actually trying to answer. In roughly ascending order of importance, here's how various people are framing the issue:
Is college for everyone? This is a dumb question. Of course college isn't for everyone. Just last week, the Post profiled 17-year old high school senior Bryce Harper, who definitely shouldn't go to college. Instead, he should (and will) become a professional baseball player and earn millions of dollars. The number of good career paths that don't require a college degree is small and shrinking but not non-existent. Some people start families, others aren't smart or hard-working enough enough to complete college-level work. Defining the question in absolute terms does little other than identify the questioner as a sloppy thinker.
Does everyone in college need to be there? Again, of course not. There are 19 million people in college; obviously some of them shouldn't be.
Is going to college a bad decision for some students? Sure. Going to college incurs time and money costs, and produces benefits of various kinds. There's no upper bound on costs so logically they can exceed benefits. Borrowing tens of thousands of dollars for a substandard nursing degree, for example, is a bad idea. The average lifetime earnings differential for college graduates still exceeds the average cost of college by a substantial amount (the exact figure is subject to debate) but those are just averages.
(Johns Stossel thinks that because there are some students on the wrong side of both averages—costs too high, benefits too low—this proves that college in general is a "scam." His article does prove something: John Stossel is a hack. This we already knew.)
Are too many students going to college? This is a question actually worth asking. The Times article cites several credible academics, plus Charles Murray, answering "yes." Economist Richard Vedder, whose work I find thought-provoking if not always convincing, notes that 15 percent of mail carriers have bachelor's degrees. "Some of them could have bought a house for what they spent on their education," he says. But the optimal number of postal carriers with bachelor's degrees surely isn't zero. That's because of the specific nature of the college experience.
Matriculating at a university isn't like buying a car. Anyone with enough money can buy the nicest car available, at any time in their life, regardless of what cars they have or have not bought before. College, by contrast, is a process and an experience associated with a great number of prior and subsequent contingencies: You can only go to college if you successfully engage in various previous activities, and various subsequent options are only available to those who complete college.
Some students, moreover, are far more vulnerable than others to the policy choices likely to result from our collective understanding of these questions. Statistically speaking, my daughter will almost certainly go to college. First-generation students, by contrast, along with those who come from from low-income backgrounds and bad high schools, stand at the precipice of non-attendance. The way we think about college matters for them in profound ways.
Which is why the conventional approach to higher education has been, and should continue to be, expansive. It's a cliche, but it's true: College opens the door to opportunity. Not for everyone and not always, but very often and certainly often enough. Crucially, there's no way to know for sure ahead of time exactly who will benefit. Attempts to do so invariably discriminate against the marginalized students noted above. So we accept some inefficiency and additional societal expense, because the net result is positive and the people who benefit the most on the margins from expansiveness need it the most and deserve it the most. We're a wealthy nation and a surplus of enlightened mail carriers seems low on the list of problems to solve. How many of them, in retrospect, regret their degrees?
It would be possible, of course, to carry an expansive policy too far. But as David Leonhardt notes, income data show that the returns in the job market to a college degree relative to lesser credentials have steadily increased even as access to higher education has grown at the same time. And we should take seriously the collective wisdom of millions of college-educated parents who consider no option other than giving their own children a chance for higher education. This isn't just about status and social norms; it represents a rational and highly informed estimate of cost, contingency, opportunity and benefit, all pointing in one overwhelming direction. For the last century America has led the world in expanding access to successively higher forms of education. Does anyone seriously believe this was, in retrospect, unwise?
Vedder et al. do make some good observations about college credentialing. There's a lot to be said for developing more creative, efficient, and flexible ways of certifying what people know and can do and matching those credentials up with the emerging labor market—as long as it doesn't have the effect of shutting students out of future opportunities to advance further down the postsecondary path.
But in the end, a lot of those questions really come down to whether or not the solution to various difficult higher-education problems should or should not serve the narrow interests of institutions and people who enjoy disproportionate wealth and power in society and have already benefited from access to college themselves.
If a lot of students enter college unprepared, which they do, we can shut them out of higher education as lost causes, or we can do the hard work of fixing public high schools and investing more resources in the community colleges and open-access public universities that do most of the heavy lifting in postsecondary education.
If many students drop out of college, which they do, we can can pretend that this represents fidelity to high academic standards or we can starting holding colleges accountable for graduating a reasonable number of students as compared to peer institutions with similar academic missions and admissions profiles, and do a much better job of giving at-risk students the academic support they need.
If the ever-growing cost of college pushes more students on to the wrong side of the cost/benefit equation, which it is, we can pretend that skyrocketing tuition is an immutable force of nature, or we can create a more transparent higher education market where colleges have strong incentives to restrain costs and ban colleges that plunge their students into unmanageable debt from federal aid programs.
College is extremely important and more people need it now than ever before. It's noteworthy that the people who argue otherwise are in nearly all cases great beneficiaries of college themselves.


Comments
1. debrahumphreys - May 19, 2010 at 08:46 am
Thank you so much for this well-reasoned posting. There is much evidence (see compelling economic data presented by the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown at http://cew.georgetown.edu/) to support your final point that "college is extremely important and more people need it now than ever before." The Georgetown Center's data make it extremely clear that, for most students, college is still very much worth the expense in terms of future opportunities. It is also clear from the economic data that the American economy will actually be short college educated workers in the coming years. Some estimate that we will be about 16 million college educated workers short by 2025. We also know that today's college graduates will have about 10-14 jobs by the time they are 38 years old (according to department of labor data). Because of this fact, I am particularly worried about tracking some students into very narrow training programs that may prepare them for an initial job, but not for success over the long term. Of course, the other pernicious part of the argument against expanding access to college is the idea that those who do jobs like letter carrying don't deserve the many other benefits of being well-educated! Having a rich life outside of work or being informed citizens and voters, for instance. If we care about our future economy and our future democracy, we need more college students and more college graduates. And, as you say, the arguments about whether every single student needs to go to college are just diversions that distract from the more important issues--getting more students better prepared for success in college, increasing college graduation rates, and, finally, making sure that all college graduates actually have the skills and abilities they need. Evidence suggests that they don't (see data on what employers say about college graduates' skills and abilities from AAC&U's LEAP intiative: http://www.aacu.org/leap/public_opinion_research.cfm).
2. mercy_otis_warren - May 19, 2010 at 10:43 am
"Is college for everyone? This is a dumb question. Of course college isn't for everyone....Defining the question in absolute terms does little other than identify the questioner as a sloppy thinker."
It seems fair to add that the prompt to much of this discussion was the warm assertions by Pres. Obama that, indeed, "every American will need to get more than a high school diploma." ("I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training," both 2/2009) While Pres. Obama included vocational training, one might argue that his own generalized contention that a high-school education alone was insufficient for "every American" (apparently including, say, Bryce Harper) is the reverse of the question above. It's not too far, perhaps, from the idea that *every* American should commit to a year of college or vocational training to the idea that "college is for everyone."
"If many students drop out of college, which they do, we can can pretend that this represents fidelity to high academic standards or we can starting holding colleges accountable for graduating a reasonable number of students as compared to peer institutions with similar academic missions and admissions profiles, and do a much better job of giving at-risk students the academic support they need."
As usual, I wish Kevin Carey had experience teaching underachieving, poorly prepared, or at-risk undergraduate students. It would, for this reader at least, add some heft to his frequent chastisement of, and desire to "hold accountable," those of us (individuals and institutions) who do.
3. sahara - May 19, 2010 at 10:46 am
Agree! Thank you, Debra, for these links.
4. molly1 - May 19, 2010 at 11:12 am
Thank you Debra for pointing out that letter carriers have just as much right to a life of the mind and rich intellectual life as someone in the professions. It was only in the 1990s that political rhetoric designed to justify increased spending on higher education linked the importance of a college education strictly to job success and higher incomes. Learning or the sake of making better decisions and being a better informed citizen is just as important. As Alexandra Lord's article in the Chronicle points out today, people outside academia can have all sorts of career trajectories, and they use their learning in a variety of unexpected ways. Letter carriers, to take one example, are essential members of the community, who can notice and raise the alert when elderly who live alone are in trouble, among other things. I'm in academia, but one of the better read people I know is a letter carrier; she entered the job for income security, and I suspect she makes more than many professors.
5. bdr8y - May 19, 2010 at 02:52 pm
This is why I am professionally in love with Kevin Carey!
6. glennbrandonburke - May 24, 2010 at 01:02 pm
Correct! College isn't for everyone. But everyone should increase their level of knowledge beyond high school.
From High School Dropout to College Professor... www.GlennBrandonBurke.com
-gbb
7. goldrick - May 25, 2010 at 01:54 pm
dear kevin,
didn't you just love typing those words "my daughter" .... (congrats again!)
thinking about what our own kids will do, and what we'd counsel them to do, takes this discussion to a whole new level.
sara
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