Polls of last night’s Iowa caucusgoers all seem to point to the same bottom-line conclusion: The Democratic winner, Barack Obama, benefited greatly from a big turnout among young voters, who favored him by overwhelming margins.
Surveys of those entering caucuses, conducted on behalf of the National Election Poll—a consortium of media organizations, including CNN and the Associated Press—found that 17 percent of Democratic caucusgoers were in the 17-24 age bracket, while another 5 percent were ages 25 to 29. Obama received the support of 57 percent of caucusgoers 29 and younger, giving him more than five times as much support from this age group as Hillary Clinton, who received the support of 11 percent. Among the Democrats, John Edwards posted the second-best showing among under-30 caucusgoers, winning the support of 14 percent.
On the Republican side, just 11 percent of caucusgoers were 29 or younger. Although Mike Huckabee won among all age groups, caucusgoers under the age of 44 were substantially more likely than their older peers to support him, the National Election Poll found. He received the support of 40 percent of those aged 17 to 29 and 39 percent of those aged 30 to 44, compared to 31 percent of those aged 45 to 64 and 30 percent of those 65 and older.
A separate analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, based at the University of Maryland at College Park, says 13 percent of eligible Iowans under the age of 30 participated in that state’s caucuses, up from 4 percent in 2004—when George W. Bush ran as an incumbent and no Republican caucuses were held—and 3 percent in 2000. The share of Democratic caucusgoers in that age group was up 5 percentage points over the 2004 primaries, when 17 percent were under 30.
Although the Iowa caucus polls do not distinguish whether those polled are college students, it appears that many out-of-state students enrolled at Iowa campuses did not heed suggestions from the Clinton campaign and a prominent Des Moines Register columnist, David Yepsen, that they stay away for winter break and leave the caucusing to longtime state residents. As the Chronicle reported last month, some colleges agreed to reopen facilities to house students who returned to caucus, and many students returned to the state to take part in the political event.
