In his column this morning, Paul Krugman points to a grim analysis of the U.S. economy released last month by Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University. (Rogoff is an adviser to Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign.)

In their paper, Reinhart and Rogoff list several ways in which the current U.S. situation resembles five previous financial crises that were “associated with major declines in economic performance over an extended period.” The most famous of those past crises is the one Japan suffered for nearly a decade beginning in 1992. Their other four examples are Spain (beginning in 1977), Norway (1987), Finland (1991), and Sweden (1991).

Like Japan et al., the United States has seen:

A steep rise in housing prices during the four years preceding the crisis. (The U.S. rise was more than twice as large as the average of the other five.)

A steep rise in equity prices. (Again, the U.S. rise was larger.)

A large increase in its current account deficit.

A decline in per-capita growth in gross domestic product. (In this case, the U.S. situation doesn’t appear as bad as in the five predecessors.)

An increase in public debt. (Here again, the U.S. situation isn’t as bad as in the historical examples – but Reinhart and Rogoff add that “if one were to incorporate the huge buildup in private U.S. debt into these measures, the comparisons would be notably less favorable.”)

Reinhart and Rogoff don’t make any firm predictions of recession, but they offer this: “Given the severity of most crisis indicators in the run-up to its 2007 financial crisis, the United States should consider itself quite fortunate if its downturn ends up being a relatively short and mild one.”

Meanwhile, the econ blogger Barry Ritholtz has a bit of fun with people who spent the mid-oughts denying that the housing bubble was a serious problem.

We can play that game too: See here and here and here.

(Photo by the Flickr user aturkus. Used under a Creative Commons license.)