January 25, 2008

Polling Puzzles

By EVAN R. GOLDSTEIN

In the days leading up to the January 8 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, the polls indicated that Sen. Barack Obama was poised to win by between five and 13 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won by two points. As the director of polling at ABC News put it, "It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong." Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, called it "one of the most significant miscues in modern polling history." Political

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