American medical schools are expected to increase their first-year enrollments by 17 percent by 2012, according to a report released today by the Association of American Medical Colleges. But that’s still far short of the 30-percent enrollment increase the association says is needed by 2015 to avert a future shortage of physicians.

“The need for more doctors is real and will become more urgent as our population grows and ages,” said the association’s president, Darrell G. Kirch. “This increase is a significant step in the right direction, and we are pleased that 71 U.S. medical schools plan to expand their class sizes over the next five years. But clearly, we must find additional ways to stimulate more growth in medical-school capacity so that we have enough doctors to care for our nation in the coming decades.”

Many of the anticipated expansions, which would include new branch campuses, new clinical affiliations, and several new medical schools, are contingent upon more state funds, which are by no means certain. The report’s findings echo remarks by Dr. Kirch’s predecessor, Jordan J. Cohen, when he stepped down, in 2005, as well as by Dr. Kirch himself, when he was named to his post.