Washington — Adapt, or else.

That’s the message Robert A. Sevier delivered today at the annual meeting here of the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities.

Mr. Sevier, senior vice president for strategy at Stamats Inc., a higher-education marketing firm, described a “perfect storm” that would affect future recruiting strategies. The three components: changing demographics, rising costs of attending college, and increased competition for applicants.

Colleges that serve only full-time undergraduates will struggle to survive unless they have a large endowment or widespread name recognition, Mr. Sevier said. After all, an abundance of traditional students seems unlikely to last.

Mr. Sevier cited data from the National Center for Education Statistics, which projects the number of high-school graduates will reach an all-time high in 2009, but then begin to decline steadily the following year. While some states, such as California, Florida, and Texas, will see big increases in traditional-age students over the next 10 years, others — including Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — will face a drop in high-school graduates.

To adapt, Mr. Sevier said, colleges must look to six growth areas: minority students, adults (including senior citizens), commuter students, part-timers, international students, and women of all ages.

The key to survival in an increasingly competitive field? Mr. Sevier insisted that though some colleges might hesitate to accentuate their differences, marketing campaigns that emphasize distinctiveness resonate with students more strongly than do broader, generic messages.

“You’ve got to be different,” he said, “in ways that they care about.” —Eric Hoover