November 12, 2004
Man's Predisposition for Overconfidence, and the Implications for War
Shortly before the first shots were fired in the summer of 1914, a German general predicted that "in two weeks we shall defeat France, then we shall turn 'round, defeat Russia, and then we shall march to the Balkans and establish order there." His French counterparts, meanwhile, were boasting that their soldiers' superior "intelligence, spirit, power of exaltations, devotion, [and] patriotism" would bring a quick and glorious victory. In Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive
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