In 2000 the country’s eyes were fixed on Florida, where a ballot dispute kept the presidency hanging in the balance for more than a month. Now Florida is again in the political news, after the Legislature voted to move the state’s presidential primary up to January 29, 2008. The change violates the rules of both national political parties, and late last month, the Democratic National Committee gave Florida’s Democrats an ultimatum – come up with a solution that doesn’t violate the rules, or lose all 210 delegates to the national nominating convention. Most of the Democrats, including the front-runners, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, have pledged not to campaign in Florida or other states that try to leapfrog the primary calendar.

Richard K. Scher is a professor of political science at the University of Florida whose research interests include voting rights, campaigns, and elections, particularly Florida’s and Southern politics. Mr. Scher, who is a Democrat, agreed to share some of his insights on the situation with The Chronicle.

How did we arrive at this point?

You could actually read the history of American political parties as a power struggle between the national organizations, the DNC and RNC, and individual state parties.

Ever since political parties began holding conventions to nominate candidates, there have been disputes over delegates. In just the Republicans’ second convention, in 1860, delegates were completely intimidated by noisy and enthusiastic Lincoln supporters, many of whom had been given fake tickets by Lincoln’s organization so they could enter the arena in Chicago…. General Dwight Eisenhower was nominated at the Republican convention in 1952, when delegates supporting him were seated over those favoring Senator Robert Taft of Ohio; acrimony was so great that there were fistfights on the convention floor. In 1964, in the middle of the civil-rights movement, the Democratic Party convention was rocked by controversy over which Mississippi delegation should be seated – one representing the old segregationist state party or one which included the state’s politically emerging black community.

How is the latest standoff playing among Floridians?

It is not clear how the DNC decision impacts rank-and-file members in Florida. State party leaders are angry and incensed. They are still of the view that the national party has no business determining when individual states schedule presidential primaries.

The January 29 primary date also has become inextricably intertwined with a much more important issue, at least as far as Floridians are concerned. At virtually the same moment that the Legislature – overwhelmingly dominated by Republicans – moved back the date of the primary, it also placed on the ballot for that date a draconian Constitutional amendment to slash property taxes in ways which would significantly benefit the wealthy but do virtually nothing for the middle class and poor.

Republican strategy for doing this was either brilliant or deviously Machiavellian, depending on one’s point of view…. In order to improve the property-tax amendment’s chances, GOP leaders recognized that they had to find a way to depress Democratic turnout. They assumed that DNC penalties against Florida Democrats would have that effect on January 29.

Florida’s not an insignificant state. It has 27 electoral votes – 10 percent of the majority of electors needed to choose a president — and large blocs of voters, particularly Hispanic voters, whom candidates from both parties would like to capture. Can presidential candidates afford to bypass Florida?

No. Floridians can expect a full barrage of campaigning, both in the primary and general elections. The psychological value of a candidate’s victory in the Florida primary – in both parties – is staggering. Florida is the fourth-largest state, one whose politics are a good bellwether of the nation. A win in the Florida primary – even a good showing – is worth more to a presidential candidate than that of all four early-bird states combined.

Plus, Florida is like a money tree – or a gusher, really – for both parties. Candidates simply cannot afford to write off the potential resources this state offers them, and so they will come…. To assume that the candidates of both parties would kick away this prize because of a changed primary date is absurd.

Is there a way out of this standoff? What kind of precedent could this political fight set?

The question is really, Who will blink first? If it is the state, then the Democratic Party will have taken another step towards increased centralization. If it is the DNC, then the Democrats will continue to remain a decentralized federation rather than a more nationally centered one, such as the Republicans are becoming.