September 23, 2005
Disaster Possibility vs. Probability
Lee Clarke, associate professor of sociology, Rutgers University at New Brunswick
Hurricane Katrina was a shock but not a surprise, says Mr. Clarke, author of Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination (University of Chicago Press, November). He argues that we should focus on the possibility, rather than the probability, of disaster.
Q. What's the difference between possibilistic and probabilistic worst-case thinking?
A. Probabilism says, "What are the
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