President Obama has set a goal of putting the United States first in the world by 2020 in the proportion of residents with college degrees or certificates. Here is a breakdown of the progress each state would have to make by 2020 to help meet that goal, if each state were to maintain its current share of undergraduate credentials. The calculations, by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, take into account current levels of educational attainment and projected population growth in each state.
| State | Total additional degrees and certificates needed by 2020 | Additional degrees and certificates needed annually to reach goal | Average annual % increase in degrees and certificates needed | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 70,916 | 1,074 | 6.4% | ||
| Arkansas | 138,113 | 2,093 | 6.1% | ||
| Arizona | 386,078 | 5,850 | 6.1% | ||
| West Virginia | 92,283 | 1,398 | 5.9% | ||
| Tennessee | 236,941 | 3,590 | 5.9% | ||
| Kentucky | 264,451 | 4,007 | 5.9% | ||
| Texas | 938,523 | 14,220 | 5.9% | ||
| Louisiana | 204,730 | 3,102 | 5.9% | ||
| North Carolina | 429,730 | 6,511 | 5.8% | ||
| Mississippi | 126,683 | 1,919 | 5.7% | ||
| Georgia | 455,809 | 6,906 | 5.7% | ||
| Florida | 911,147 | 13,805 | 5.7% | ||
| Oklahoma | 160,486 | 2,432 | 5.7% | ||
| Utah | 183,412 | 2,779 | 5.6% | ||
| Alabama | 191,658 | 2,904 | 5.6% | ||
| South Carolina | 178,950 | 2,711 | 5.5% | ||
| Indiana | 302,970 | 4,590 | 5.5% | ||
| Idaho | 61,004 | 924 | 5.5% | ||
| Missouri | 271,132 | 4,108 | 5.3% | ||
| Oregon | 140,557 | 2,130 | 5.3% | ||
| Delaware | 36,445 | 552 | 5.3% | ||
| Virginia | 317,178 | 4,806 | 5.2% | ||
| California | 1,518,414 | 23,006 | 5.2% | ||
| Ohio | 468,118 | 7,093 | 5.2% | ||
| Michigan | 413,664 | 6,268 | 5.2% | ||
| Alaska | 13,716 | 208 | 5.1% | ||
| Colorado | 230,279 | 3,489 | 5.1% | ||
| Hawaii | 42,760 | 648 | 5.1% | ||
| New Mexico | 72,165 | 1,093 | 5.1% | ||
| Washington | 282,579 | 4,281 | 5.1% | ||
| Wisconsin | 268,527 | 4,069 | 5.0% | ||
| Nebraska | 87,683 | 1,329 | 5.0% | ||
| Wyoming | 27,067 | 410 | 5.0% | ||
| Illinois | 590,199 | 8,942 | 5.0% | ||
| Pennsylvania | 533,615 | 8,085 | 5.0% | ||
| Iowa | 188,778 | 2,860 | 5.0% | ||
| Maryland | 184,050 | 2,789 | 5.0% | ||
| Kansas | 140,750 | 2,133 | 5.0% | ||
| South Dakota | 34,211 | 518 | 4.9% | ||
| Rhode Island | 61,652 | 934 | 4.9% | ||
| New Jersey | 218,910 | 3,317 | 4.9% | ||
| Montana | 30,473 | 462 | 4.8% | ||
| Maine | 42,979 | 651 | 4.8% | ||
| Minnesota | 244,874 | 3,710 | 4.8% | ||
| New York | 745,206 | 11,291 | 4.7% | ||
| New Hampshire | 50,336 | 763 | 4.7% | ||
| Massachusetts | 259,844 | 3,937 | 4.7% | ||
| Connecticut | 100,188 | 1,518 | 4.6% | ||
| North Dakota | 32,611 | 494 | 4.6% | ||
| Vermont | 26,473 | 401 | 4.5% | ||
| Nation | 13,132,522 | 198,978 | 5.3% | ||
| Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems | |||||
Comments
1. 11167997 - February 25, 2010 at 01:49 pm
This table has all kinds of problems, and is liable to be widely misinterpreted. First step toward clarity is to disaggregate by type of credential---certificate, associate's, bachelor's---within each state, because (obviously) the proportional distribution differs by state. Second step is to recognize that within population change come parallel proportional changes in postsecondary participation and credential completion (though behavioral numerators always lag the population denominator), and that an honest account might take NCES's state projections (currently through 2018) to determine how many additional degrees are already in the demographic cards to be awarded. Then one distinguishes between what will happen by natural demographics and what requires additional efforts. This is not rocket science, but it is more realistic and more honest.---Cliff Adelman, Institute for Higher Education Policy
2. rwormser27 - February 26, 2010 at 10:59 pm
What may be more important than the accuracy of the numbers is the challenge of increasing degree production during a period of financial erosion, aka "Do more and better with less".
If there is some reasonable relationship between invested resources and both quantity and quality of results, then fewer resources and more results would seem to result in a reduction in quality of results (the so-called "Iron Triangle"). That seems to be what has been happening in primary and secondary eduation.
Perhaps thinking about how to break out of that structural bind would be more useful than focusing on the precision of the numbers. - Ron Wormser, retired higher ed administrator
3. ophe07 - March 03, 2010 at 12:11 pm
Cliff - If you are going to criticize then why don't you go ahead and do what you suggest? You say it is not rocket science so a smart guy like you should be able to whip those figures up in no time.
I look forward to seeing those figures.